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china after 44 years

launching icbms into the pacific again!

national day is just a few days away. unexpectedly, the rocket force has given national day a grand gift!

at 8:44 a.m. on september 25, the rocket force successfully launched an intercontinental ballistic missile carrying a training simulated warhead into the relevant high seas waters of the pacific ocean. it accurately landed in the designated sea area, and the test achieved its intended purpose.

most people may not realize the significance of this intercontinental missile test. let me put it this way.this is the first time in 44 years since 1980 that china has launched an intercontinental missile into the pacific ocean over an ultra-long distance!

so the question is, weren't all previous icbm launches conducted within the country? why was it launched into the pacific this time?

we all know that intercontinental missiles are one of the most important vehicles in a country's nuclear deterrence system and have always been the focus of research and development by various nuclear countries.

however, the range of intercontinental missiles is very long, often more than 10,000 kilometers, and no country has such a vast territory to test intercontinental missiles. even the soviet union, with such a large territory, was unable to withstand the r-36m/m2 "satan" ballistic missile with a range of 16,000 kilometers.

so, if i build an intercontinental missile, how can i test whether it can hit 10,000 kilometers in a country with insufficient land area (such as a small country like north korea)?

actually? there is a way.

we all know that intercontinental missiles are a type of ballistic missile. the reason why it is called a ballistic missile is that except for the acceleration phase, the other phases basically rely on inertial flight.

this process is like throwing a stone far away.

so, if the range of throwing stones is not enough, we can throw 10 meters, but we must throw it within 5 meters. how to achieve it? there are two ways:

the first method is to reduce the throwing force, which is thrust adjustment.

the second method is to increase the elevation angle, that is, to throw the ball high.

the thrust adjustment of ballistic missiles is not as simple as throwing a stone. for liquid missiles, the thrust is usually adjusted by opening and closing the fuel valve and adjusting the flow of oxidizer and fuel into the combustion chamber.

solid missiles are more troublesome because the rocket fuel column is already carved into different curved inner diameters according to ballistic requirements during production. once ignited, all you can do is wait for the fuel to burn out. so adjusting the fuel is not feasible. you can only open the preset opening of the combustion chamber, reduce the pressure in the combustion chamber, or use a reverse nozzle to reduce thrust and achieve range adjustment.

then, based on the missile's engine thrust curve data at various altitudes, it is possible to calculate the maximum range that the missile can achieve if the engine thrust data is not reduced.

the high-altitude trajectory is not so troublesome. by adjusting the flight direction of the active phase, the missile can be kept flying higher and the fuel can be consumed in the ascent phase, thus achieving the purpose of reducing the range.

it's like mortar shooting, after exceeding 45 degrees, the higher the elevation angle, the shorter the range.

similarly, the actual flight distance of the missile can be obtained based on data calculation.

because this plan is relatively simple, almost all countries that develop ballistic missiles have used it, such as the united states' land-based minuteman, sea-based trident, and china's dongfeng 5 and jl-2.

when china was developing the df-5 intercontinental missile, the initial design range was 12,000 kilometers. however, china's territory is only 6,500 kilometers from the east to the west, which is not enough for full-range testing. therefore, in the early stages of research and development, high-altitude ballistic tests were conducted by launching from east to west target ranges.

the subsequent series of missile tests also used high-altitude trajectories. the land-based ones were launched from taiyuan and jiuquan to hit lop nur, or from xinjiang to the south china sea. the sea-based ones were launched from the bohai sea to the vicinity of lop nur, a distance of 2,000-3,000 kilometers.

the situation in north korea is similar to that in china. in the intercontinental missile test on march 24, 2022, north korea’s "mars" 17 missile flew 1,090 kilometers, but the flight altitude reached 6,248 kilometers (the general intercontinental missile flight altitude is between 200 kilometers and 1,000 kilometers).

the advantage of conducting this type of shortened-range experiment is that it is simple to organize.

after the range is shortened, the landing point can be arranged within the country or near the coast, avoiding complaints from neighboring countries and arranging particularly complicated security measures on site. even if the missile misses the target, it will not be a big problem.

what if we want to conduct a full-range test? that would be complicated. because the territory is not enough, we must conduct the test in the high seas, notify neighboring countries in advance, and dispatch a fleet to guard the designated landing point to prevent the warhead from being salvaged.

in 1980, china conducted its first full-range test launch of the df-5 missile. to ensure the launch, china assembled a fleet of 18 ships to recover the data capsule. even so, there were incidents where us and australian warships attempted to steal the data capsule. after being blocked by china, the us even salvaged a bucket of green seawater stained with dye.

therefore, for some countries with weak naval power, the risk of leakage in the full-range experiment is very high.

however, although full-range testing is troublesome, it also has many benefits.

on the one hand, it can test the missile's long-distance flight performance and the reliability of its components, especially whether the missile can fly normally and accurately hit the target when it flies out of the measurement and control area.

on the other hand, compared with the test with reduced range, the deterrent capability of the full-range test is strong enough.

therefore, both the united states and the soviet union conducted a lot of full-range tests or quasi-full-range tests.

for example, the united states' land-based intercontinental missiles are generally fired from its native nevada to the kwajalein atoll test range in the central pacific ocean, with a straight-line distance of about 9,000 kilometers, while sea-based missiles mostly strike the kwajalein atoll test range from the waters of california, with a range of about 7,000 kilometers. these are basically quasi-full-range tests.

what about the soviet union? land-based missiles were usually launched from plesetsk to attack the kamchatka peninsula in the far east or baikonur in kazakhstan. sea-based missiles were launched from the barents sea to attack kamchatka. although the distance was a bit short, nuclear submarines could move forward and cover the us mainland without any problem.

so the question is, what kind of intercontinental missile test is china conducting this time? is it the legendary dongfeng 51?

in fact, this is most likely not a test of a new model, but a "duty exercise".

we all know that both the united states and russia have a number of nuclear missile forces on standby 24 hours a day. this is the so-called "combat readiness duty", which ensures that missiles can be launched immediately at the command.

take the united states as an example. the u.s. air force is equipped with 450 minuteman 3 intercontinental missiles, which are deployed in the corresponding wings in wyoming, north dakota and montana. each minuteman 3 has its own launch silo, which is controlled by several launch control centers. once these launch centers receive the launch order, they can complete the launch of all missiles within 10 minutes.

the same is true for sea-based forces. on average, the us sea-based nuclear forces have 432 warheads on duty every day, with a total equivalent of 112 million tons. adding land-based nuclear missiles, the total number of warheads on duty is 873, with a total equivalent of 244 million tons.

so, how are these on-duty missiles maintained? (after all, these missiles are decades old) have the on-duty personnel deserted their posts? is the command and communication system unobstructed? in fact, no one knows for sure.

therefore, both the united states and russia have a system of conducting "duty pulls" from time to time, firing a missile from time to time to test the "reliability of strategic missile systems in terms of combat readiness."

facts have proved that this "on-duty pull" can really detect problems.

in september this year, russia launched a sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile from the plesetsk cosmodrome in the northern arkhangelsk oblast, but according to media reports such as reuters and the new york times, the missile malfunctioned and exploded in the launch silo. satellite images showed a crater about 60 meters wide in the russian launch silo, while satellite images of the same location two weeks ago did not show the crater.

what about china? although it also has missile brigades on combat readiness duty, in order to avoid international hype, it generally does not conduct such full-range "duty exercises" and only conducts some high-altitude ballistic range test firings within the country to hit targets such as "aircraft carriers in the desert."

▲a moving aircraft carrier target somewhere in china

but this time, it is completely different from the past, and many clues can be seen from the news release.

"at 8:44 a.m. on september 25, the rocket force of the chinese people's liberation army successfully launched an intercontinental ballistic missile carrying a training simulated warhead into the relevant high seas of the pacific ocean, which accurately landed in the designated sea area. this missile launch is a routine arrangement of annual military training, in line with international law and international practice, and is not directed at any specific country or target."

who was the launch body? it was the rocket force, not the aerospace x academy, and it was emphasized that it was a "routine arrangement of annual military training", which shows that this missile is already a finalized model, not an experimental model.

where was the launch target? the pacific ocean. obviously, this was a full-range test. if we take a map and measure it, we will find that if it is the south pacific ocean, the range is close to 12,000 kilometers. in other words, it is closer to the actual combat trajectory.

▲the trajectory of the dongfeng 5 when it was launched in 1980

what is the payload? it is a simulated warhead, not the data capsule from 1980, which needed to be salvaged in the past but may not be salvaged this time.

more importantly, unlike the veiled "launch vehicle test" in 1980, this time it was actually an "intercontinental missile"! i'm laying my cards on the table. i'm not going to pretend anymore!

so why did china suddenly conduct this full-range test launch?

the first possibility, quite simply, is nuclear deterrence.

although this launch was "routine", it was obviously not a simple matter as it happened suddenly after such a long period of time.

at the beginning of 2022, the five nuclear-weapon states of china, russia, the united states, britain and france jointly issued a "joint statement on preventing nuclear war and avoiding an arms race", emphasizing that nuclear war cannot be won and must not be fought, and pledged not to aim nuclear weapons at each other.

however, as the international situation continues to develop and change, the world is in turmoil, especially with the approaching us election and the increase in various unstable factors. in order to deter certain adventurism, it is necessary to demonstrate one's nuclear capabilities.

after all,peace cannot rely on the other side not shooting, but is based on mutual destruction.

now, china has launched intercontinental missiles into the pacific ocean, saying that it is not targeting any country. but for neighboring countries, who would not be terrified when they see china's intercontinental missiles falling on their doorsteps?

the second possibility is that it shows the combat readiness level of china’s rocket force.

we can see that from 2023 to date, four of the five permanent members of the un security council have already conducted their own intercontinental missile tests.

among them, the uk's test launch of the trident-ii submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missile failed.

russia's test launch of the sarmat intercontinental missile failed, but the missile exploded in the launch silo.

france successfully tested the m-51.3 submarine-launched intercontinental missile.

the united states test-fired the minuteman 3 missile, but a malfunction occurred in the active stage of the first stage, causing it to deviate from the predetermined trajectory and self-destruct in the air, thus failing.

now the pressure is on china. can china succeed?

as a result, the chinese rocket force dispelled all doubts in society with a perfect test launch. after all, this full-range test launch in combat readiness status was of the highest level in terms of technical level and practicality, and fully demonstrated the combat readiness capability of the chinese rocket force.