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editor’s note:although the philippines has withdrawn its coast guard ships from the xianbin reef lagoon, the situation in the south china sea remains tense. why does the current philippine government keep trying to stir up trouble in the south china sea? will us warships really escort philippine ships in the south china sea? what role do japan and south korea play in the south china sea situation? this issue of phoenix military affairs invites military experts wang mingliang and zhang xuefeng to interpret the undercurrent of the south china sea situation for you.

dialogue: wang mingliang and zhang xuefeng

editor: chen jiazhong

phoenix military affairs office:how is the development of this round of south china sea dispute different from previous ones?

wang mingliang:the intensity and pace of the philippines' provocations have obviously increased compared to the duterte period. since the new president marcos came to power, there has been no peace, first the ren'ai reef and then the xianbin reef. the background behind these incidents is very complicated and we need to deal with them seriously.

zhang xuefeng:the withdrawal of the philippine coast guard ship can be seen as a phased victory for china. this also shows that in the south china sea game, the gap in strength between the philippines and china is very obvious. whether it is warships or coast guard ships, whether it is a hot war or a cold war, they are not china's opponents.

on may 16, several philippine ships illegally gathered in the waters near china's huangyan island. the chinese coast guard stepped up surveillance and evidence collection to conduct on-site control. the picture shows a chinese coast guard ship passing a philippine fishing boat.

phoenix military affairs office:the escalation of the situation in the south china sea overlaps with some political events in the philippines, such as the withdrawal of duterte's daughter from the marcos government. the duterte family seems to want to cut ties with the marcos family politically. in addition, marcos is beginning to face increasing public pressure on issues such as inflation, constitutional amendments, and corruption. what is the relationship between this round of changes in the south china sea situation and domestic political events in the philippines?

wang mingliang:the relationship is very close. marcos' political motive for escalating the situation in the south china sea is to consolidate his power in the philippines. although marcos became president, the family politics in the philippines is extremely strong, such as the duterte and aquino families, which are very powerful.

on september 18, sara duterte, the current vice president of the philippines and daughter of former president rodrigo duterte, said that she would announce her presidential election plans in 2026 and made it clear that she would no longer ally with the marcos family.

during duterte's administration, he adopted a relatively moderate and pragmatic policy on the south china sea issue, which was actually conducive to peace and stability in the south china sea region. however, some extremists in the philippines believed that duterte was relatively weak. therefore, marcos wooed pro-american forces and used the south china sea issue to continuously suppress the duterte family, consolidate his regime, and build momentum for the next election.

phoenix military affairs office:how much influence do americans have on these key decisions within the philippines?

zhang xuefeng:during the duterte era, the country's policies were relatively neutral, and the influence of the united states on the philippines was relatively limited. after marcos was elected president, the overall policy of the philippines changed greatly. on the one hand, from the perspective of national interests, marcos may have believed that being close to the united states would bring greater political benefits; on the other hand, the united states' control over the philippines was strengthening.

in the past, when the united states did not pay much attention to the indo-pacific region, it would let the philippines make its own decisions, and there was a period of time when anti-american sentiment was relatively high in the country. however, since the united states has attached importance to the indo-pacific strategy and wants to engage in great power competition, it needs to have a foothold in the south china sea. at this time, the importance of the philippines is reflected. the stationing of troops in the philippines can interfere in the taiwan strait to the north, and can influence the south china sea to the west or south.

during the 11th beijing xiangshan forum, luo wanwei, chairman of the philippine institute for international security studies, said that the united states wants to use the south china sea issue as an excuse to justify its military presence in the region.

phoenix military affairs office:the commander of the us indo-pacific command threatened to escort philippine ships. is this a big talk? if it comes true, how will we respond?

wang mingliang:the concept of escort is very vague. how to escort, what to use and where to escort? for example, in the last incident at ren'ai reef, just watching from the sidelines was also called escort; directly sending small boats to rush with the philippine ship was also escort. there is also a possibility that escort means fighting.

americans understand this, so whether or not to provide escort does not depend on the situation in the south china sea, but on the us official's judgment on sino-us relations. therefore, i think the escort is unlikely to happen.