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yesterday da ge was still talking about what incremental policies we can look forward to, and now they came today!

at the press conference, some statements made by the central bank, the state financial supervision and administration bureau, and the china securities regulatory commission were in line with market expectations. for example, the central bank will lower the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points in the near future, providing about 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity to the financial market. it will guide commercial banks to lower the interest rates of existing mortgage loans to near the interest rates of new mortgage loans. it will lower the minimum down payment ratio for second mortgage loans at the national level from 25% to 15%, and unify the minimum down payment ratio for first and second mortgage loans. the china securities regulatory commission will issue guidelines for market value management of listed companies and will soon solicit opinions.

there are a few that exceeded da ge’s expectations, let me list them out for you.

first, two structural monetary policy tools were created to support the stable development of the capital market.

1. securities, funds, and insurance companies exchange facilities support eligible securities, funds, and insurance companies to use bonds, stock etfs, csi 300 constituent stocks and other assets as collateral, and exchange high-liquidity assets such as treasury bonds and central bank bills from the central bank, which will greatly enhance the ability to obtain funds and increase stock holdings. the initial operation scale is 500 billion yuan, and the funds obtained through this tool can only be used to invest in the stock market. if the later evaluation results are good, the operation scale can be increased.

2. special re-loans for stock repurchase and increase of holdings, guide commercial banks to provide loans to listed companies and major shareholders, and support the repurchase and increase of listed company stocks. the central bank issues re-loans to commercial banks, providing a 100% funding support ratio, a re-loan interest rate of 1.75%, and the loan interest rate issued by commercial banks to customers is around 2.25%. the first installment of commercial bank loans to customers is 300 billion yuan, and the scale can be expanded in the future depending on the application situation.

in da ge's view, these two tools further echo the new "nine national policies" proposing "vigorously promoting the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market and continuously strengthening long-term investment forces", which will have a significant boosting effect on market confidence and the stock prices of listed companies.

now that the central bank has made its move, the next step is to look at the fiscal side. if the fiscal side also makes big moves, then we can expect a big rally in the a-share market. in da ge's opinion, these two policy tools will undoubtedly benefit high-dividend, low-leverage financial institutions, as well as leading stocks and blue-chip stocks.

secondly, companies with long-term negative net assets need to formulate plans to enhance their value.

compared with the two structural monetary policy tools, the benefits of this policy are limited. however, increasing the value of companies with negative net assets will help the market perform well.

da ge did some statistics after the market closed. as of today, there are 732 stocks with a price-to-book ratio between 0 and 1, accounting for 13.68% of the number of listed companies in shanghai, shenzhen and beijing. the price-to-book ratio of 13.68% is at a high level in recent years; if we extend the time to 2005, it is only second to the two bottom periods in 2005 and 2008.

specifically, the net asset value ratio was 16.5% on june 2005 when the index reached 998 points, 14.8% on 2008 when the index reached 1664 points, 6.7% on june 2013 when the index reached 1849 points, 11.4% on january 2019 when the index reached 2440 points, 11.9% on march 2020 when the index reached 2646 points, and 12.5% ​​on february this year when the index reached 2635 points.

among these companies with negative net assets, there are 69 large financial companies (banks, securities, insurance, and diversified finance), among which bank stocks collectively have negative net assets; there are 51 companies with a market value of more than 50 billion yuan.

think about it, as long as the value of these companies is improved to a certain extent, won’t the market situation be better?

we returned to the market.

today, the three major a-share indexes all rose by more than 4%. the shanghai composite index closed with a big positive line of more than 100 points. the last time a big positive line of more than 100 points appeared in a single day was in march 2022, and before that it was twice in july 2020. in the past four years, today's increase in points is second only to july 6, 2020.

the shanghai and shenzhen stock markets traded 971.3 billion yuan, 420.5 billion yuan more than yesterday. there were 5,167 stocks rising in the shanghai, shenzhen and beijing stock markets, second only to the 5,225 stocks that rose on february 29 this year.

the shanghai composite index broke through the three major pressure levels mentioned by da ge in one fell swoop and closed above 2840 points. at the same time, in terms of form, an island reversal pattern has appeared since september 9.

the shanghai composite index has a large volume k-line at the bottom of the stage, which means that even if there are short-term fluctuations, the market in the next period of time is still worth looking forward to. if there is a correction, focus on the support around 2840 points.

the shanghai composite 50 index is not far from the double bottom formed from april to early july this year, and its performance at this pressure level needs to be closely monitored.

the chinext index has stabilized above the low point in february this year, and has recently shown an obvious n-shaped structure. from the perspective of the index, the typical example of the bottom n-shaped structure in history is the few days after the shanghai composite index hit the bottom at 1,664 points in 2008.

based on the market volume, policy strength, the index's iconic k-line, and the trend structure of each index, da ge believes that even if there is a shock and differentiation tomorrow, it will not prevent the market sentiment from starting to improve. the second wave of this year's "eating market" is likely to come.

in terms of sectors, the best performing sectors today are the financial stocks, leading stocks and blue-chip stocks mentioned above by da ge. among them, diversified finance, securities, insurance and banks increased by 8.03%, 5.71%, 4.70% and 4.35% respectively. brewing and coal, as representatives of blue-chip and high-dividend stocks respectively, ranked second and sixth in the industry growth list.

in terms of speculation, baobian electric hit the "ceiling and floor" today, the recent popular stock nantian information hit the limit down, and changshan beiming rose sharply before falling sharply.

it is not surprising that these stocks have such a trend. yesterday, da ge mentioned that we must be cautious about the a-shaped trend in the high-level boards, because in the past two months, due to the speculation of themes and concepts, many high-level boards have shown a-shaped trends. once you can't withdraw in time, it is easy to hit the limit down continuously.

in fact, since volkswagen transportation broke out of the "ceiling and floor" on september 9, the speculative ecology has changed. in the subsequent speculation, many high-quality stocks came out of continuous single-digit boards, but eventually experienced an a-shaped sell-off.

in terms of mergers and acquisitions and restructuring, nearly 40 state-owned stocks hit the daily limit today, but considering the general market rise, the performance was not outstanding.

on the news front, the china securities regulatory commission said today that it will issue measures to promote mergers and acquisitions and restructuring; significantly simplify the review process for restructuring of qualified listed companies; and increase regulatory tolerance for matters such as restructuring valuations and performance commitments based on actual conditions.

da ge believes that although the direction of mergers and acquisitions and restructuring is worthy of attention, most of the high-standard stocks have been rising continuously. once the high-standard stocks show a loss-making effect, it will have an impact on the sector, and this should be noted in the short term.

finally, da ge makes a summary: today, the market has formed a landmark k-line at the bottom of the stage, and the market sentiment will begin to improve. even if there is a shock and differentiation tomorrow, it will not affect the subsequent operation of individual stocks. this may be the second wave of "eating market" this year. if the market falls back, focus on the support near 2840 points. it is necessary to pay attention to whether the market style will change, and focus on whether it will switch from speculative style to blue chip, value, and white horse direction.

(zhang daoda)

according to the latest regulations of relevant national departments, this note does not involve any operational suggestions and the risks of entering the market are borne by the individual.

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