the largest-scale exchange of fire with hezbollah in 18 years broke out. is netanyahu trying to open up a "second front"?
2024-09-24
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on september 23, 2024, local time, the israel defense forces announced that it had launched a "large-scale attack" on hezbollah targets in lebanon.
according to xinhua news agency on september 23, the lebanese ministry of public health issued a statement on the evening of the 23rd saying that israel's continuous air strikes on many parts of lebanon that day had caused 492 deaths and 1,645 injuries. the air strikes were concentrated in towns and villages in southern lebanon, the bekaa in eastern lebanon and baalbek, and the victims included 35 children and 58 women.
the associated press said this was the largest number of casualties since the lebanese-israeli war in 2006. thousands of lebanese fled from the south of the country, and the main highway in the southern port city of sidon was crowded with vehicles heading to beirut.
israel defense forces spokesman hagari said on the evening of the 23rd that the israeli army launched a large-scale air strike on "hezbollah targets in lebanon" in the past 24 hours, hitting more than 1,300 "hezbollah targets." the israeli military chief of staff said that his forces are preparing for the next phase of the lebanon operation, targeting "the combat infrastructure that hezbollah has been building over the past 20 years."
a man injured in an explosion of communications equipment sits outside an ophthalmology hospital in beirut, lebanon, on september 20, 2024, local time.
since a series of communications equipment explosions in lebanon on the 17th and 18th, israel and hezbollah in lebanon have been engaged in continuous exchanges of fire.
on september 22, israel launched a wave of air strikes on southern lebanon, while hezbollah fired more than 300 rockets at israel in response to israel's attack on hezbollah's top leader fuad shukr last month. some analysts believe that since the explosion of the communication equipment, the tension between lebanon and israel has escalated significantly, and the risk of hezbollah and israel heading for a "full-scale war" is rapidly increasing.
alex plitsas, a non-resident senior fellow at the scowcroft middle east security initiative at the atlantic council, wrote on september 23 that the "third war" between israel and hezbollah has already broken out. judging from the measures taken by israel in the past week: adjusting war goals, the explosion of communications equipment in lebanon, targeted attacks and preemptive strikes, and the latest airstrike, "what happens next will depend on hezbollah," plitsas wrote.
however, some believe that israel's ultimate goal is not to engage in a "comprehensive and protracted conflict" with hezbollah. forcing hezbollah to stop its cross-border military operations and appeasing its far-right political allies are more likely to be the main reasons why the netanyahu government turned to the northern front.
"as of now, the intensification of the current conflict between lebanon and israel is a derivative of the delay of a new round of conflict between palestine and israel, and israel's focus is still on the gaza war. israel's extraordinary attacks on hezbollah are the inevitable result of the long-term contradictions between the two sides, but the timing is special - further pressure on hezbollah will ease the security pressure in northern israel and concentrate on dealing with the gaza war. launching an "all-out war" is not the current consideration of israel and hezbollah, and both sides are actually still maintaining a certain degree of restraint." newson, a researcher at the middle east institute of shanghai international studies university, analyzed to the paper (www.thepaper.cn) on the 23rd.
a man watches rescuers search the rubble for missing people following an israeli airstrike in the southern suburbs of beirut, september 23, 2024.
"want to establish a security buffer zone in southern lebanon"?
al jazeera said that recently, hezbollah and israel have had the largest exchange of fire since the new round of conflict escalated in october last year. as of the early morning of the 22nd local time, the number and degree of damage on the lebanese-israeli border have reached historical highs.
according to lebanese media reports on the 23rd, the southern suburbs of beirut, the capital of lebanon, were attacked by israel that night, targeting a senior commander of hezbollah. hezbollah issued a statement that day saying that the target of the israeli attack was ali karaki, who is currently safe and has been transferred to a safe place.
following a series of explosions of communication equipment in lebanon that killed 37 people and injured nearly 3,000 people, israel has continued to launch strikes against lebanon. on the 20th, the israeli army launched a "targeted strike" with missiles in the southern suburbs of beirut, the capital of lebanon, killing at least 37 people, including ibrahim aqil, a senior commander of hezbollah. aqil is the second senior commander of hezbollah to be "beheaded" by the israeli army in two months after fuad shukur. the next day, the israeli army launched another large-scale strike on southern lebanon, saying that this was an action taken after discovering that hezbollah was preparing to launch rocket attacks on israel.
the international community is worried about israel's actions against hezbollah, and the statements of the israeli military's top brass have exacerbated the outside world's concerns. after the explosion of communications facilities in lebanon, israeli defense minister yoav gallant described the strike against hezbollah as a "new phase of the war" on the 18th, adding that the "center of gravity" of the war is moving north to lebanon. in addition, he also emphasized that the israeli government has set "allowing northern residents to return home safely" as another war goal.
the economist, a british media outlet, reported on the 22nd, citing several israeli military sources, that after the explosion of communications equipment in lebanon, while some advocated a more cautious approach to force hezbollah to make concessions, others advocated using the incident to escalate the situation - launching a ground offensive into lebanon, attempting to occupy territory several miles deep in southern lebanon and establish a buffer zone. the report also said that an israeli military official involved in the preparations said that the action plan had been drawn up, but the israeli army still did not have enough military force to implement the plan.
however, asher kaufman, a professor of history and peace studies at the university of notre dame, wrote in the conversation, a nonprofit explanatory article sharing website, that israel is seeking to steer the long-running conflict with hezbollah in the "opposite direction." in kaufman's view, the killing of aqil shows that the israeli government is currently considering changing the rules of the "game of revenge and counter-retaliation" and instead putting pressure on hezbollah and forcing it to make concessions.
the new york times reported on the 23rd that although israel has stepped up air strikes and warned civilians to evacuate villages where hezbollah weapons are allegedly hidden, ground operations do not seem to be coming in the short term. israel's chief military spokesman, rear admiral daniel hagari, said that the israeli army's current focus is on air operations rather than ground operations.
bloomberg expressed a similar view in its article that israel will not easily launch a ground invasion against hezbollah, but will instead aim to restore deterrence against hezbollah and weaken hezbollah's military power so that it can no longer launch rocket and missile attacks on israel.
but after the airstrike on the 23rd, hagari changed his statement, saying that israel is ready to launch a ground offensive against lebanon if necessary. but he also said, "we don't want to start a war. we want to eliminate the threat."
the financial times quoted a person familiar with the israeli government's thinking as saying that israel's recent military actions are aimed at increasing the cost of hezbollah's support for hamas and using military means to help the netanyahu government reach a diplomatic solution with hezbollah. the report also pointed out that although there are differences within the israeli government on how to implement this strategy, there is a consensus within the government on the goal behind the strategy, which is to break hezbollah leader nasrallah's vow to continue fighting israel through force.
critics of israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu believe that similar to his previous insistence on tying the ceasefire agreement in gaza to the control of the philadelphia corridor, netanyahu is likely to choose to escalate the situation between israel and lebanon in order to maintain his regime. some analysts believe that although netanyahu once hoped that the situation on the northern border would be eased, due to pressure from his far-right allies, he had to respond to the hezbollah issue to appease his allies. hebrew university political science professor gayir talher analyzed that netanyahu's far-right supporters hope that israel will militarily occupy gaza and establish a security buffer zone in southern lebanon.
according to xinhua news agency, the three major goals of israel's military operations in the gaza strip - eliminating hamas, rescuing detained personnel, and making the gaza strip no longer a threat to israel - have not yet been achieved. several israeli media outlets quoted prime minister netanyahu on the 22nd as saying that israel is studying a plan to adopt siege tactics against hamas militants in northern gaza - withdrawing palestinian civilians from northern gaza and declaring the area a military restricted zone. reuters quoted unnamed sources as saying that the plan was announced by a retired military commander and proposed by some lawmakers this month. netanyahu's office has not yet responded to requests for comment.
"the netanyahu government is increasingly desperate in the gaza war, which reflects that the far-right forces represented by the country's "most right-wing government in history" are increasingly ignoring domestic opposition voices. netanyahu personally also hopes to continue to delay the war, which is related to his political career and the unity of the far-right government." newsom analyzed.
on september 23, 2024, local time, in sidon, lebanon, israel continued its air strikes, people fled the southern villages, and cars were stuck on the road.
the situation is out of control?
al jazeera reported that the existing conflict between israel and hezbollah is "escalating." in an interview with british media channel 4 on the 22nd, former israeli army brigadier general amir avivi said that after the devastating attack on hezbollah's communication system, the exchange of fire has exacerbated tensions in the israel-lebanon border area, and a full-scale war may be imminent.
as the intensity of the conflict continues to escalate, concerns are growing that cross-border exchanges of fire will escalate into a full-scale war. according to xinhua news agency, john kirby, strategic communications coordinator of the us national security council, warned israel that escalating military conflict with hezbollah is not in israel's interest and that the united states remains committed to resolving the conflict through diplomatic means. un secretary-general guterres expressed concern about the situation on the temporary border between lebanon and israel on the 22nd. guterres warned that as hostilities between israel and hezbollah in lebanon intensify, lebanon could become "another gaza."
as concerns about a full-scale war intensified, israeli air strikes on the 23rd forced a large number of lebanese people to flee the southern and eastern parts of the country. faced with the possibility of escalating regional tensions, many governments called on their citizens to leave the relevant areas as soon as possible. the u.s. embassy in beirut urged american citizens to leave lebanon as soon as possible. the jordanian ministry of foreign affairs also issued similar advice to its citizens.
if a ground war breaks out between israel and hezbollah, the people of both countries may suffer devastating consequences. the financial times reported that hezbollah currently has more missiles and drones than hamas, and its combat power is significantly superior to hamas. given that israel and hamas have been at war for more than 10 months, if the two sides go to war, israel may not be able to gain an absolute advantage in the battle with hezbollah in a short period of time.
on september 23, 2024, local time, israel, israel's iron dome air defense system intercepted a rocket launched from lebanon.
the center for strategic and international studies (csis), a us think tank, estimates that hezbollah has 120,000 to 200,000 missiles, including precision-guided missiles, armed drones, anti-tank missiles and anti-aircraft missiles. hagari also said on the 23rd that since october last year, hezbollah has launched about 9,000 rockets and drones at israel, with 250 launched on the 23rd alone. israel estimates that hezbollah has about 150,000 rockets and missiles, including guided missiles and long-range projectiles that can strike anywhere in israel. analysts assess that hezbollah has about 20,000 to 40,000 fighters. compared with the outbreak of the israel-lebanon war in 2006, hezbollah's current strength seems to be even stronger.
data shows that the israeli army has well-equipped troops, and its armament standards are on par with nato. in addition, the israeli army has other new equipment including f35 fighter jets and top air defense systems provided by the united states, and has the ability to independently produce tanks, armored vehicles, air defense systems, missiles, drones and other weapons.
regional countries are concerned that the escalation of the situation between israel and lebanon could lead to a "full-scale regional conflict". egyptian foreign minister badr abdelatty told afp that "the escalation of the situation in the region could lead to a full-scale regional war". he added that the surge in violence "has had a negative impact on the new round of ceasefire negotiations in gaza".
after the outbreak of a new round of israeli-palestinian conflict in october last year, lebanon's hezbollah, yemen's houthi armed forces and iraq's popular mobilization organization, which are regarded as members of the "resistance axis", became the main forces directly confronting israel. countries including western countries and israel believe that iran has long been deeply involved in regional affairs and played games with regional opposition forces with the help of the "resistance axis", becoming the biggest supporter behind hezbollah and other members of the "resistance axis".
in recent days, members of the "resistance axis", including iranian and iraqi shiite militias, have taken action. the reference news website quoted the iranian news tv website on september 22 as saying that the iranian islamic revolutionary guard destroyed a spy network linked to israel, which was planning to carry out operations to undermine iran's security. the iraqi militia "islamic resistance organization" said on the 23rd that it had attacked a base in the israeli-occupied golan heights with a drone.
in newsom's view, israel's conflict in the middle east comes from iran. both hamas and hezbollah are important components of the "arc of resistance" led by iran. due to geographical proximity, israel's northern and southern borders are in confrontation with hezbollah and hamas respectively.
but newsom is reserved about whether iran will directly intervene in the war between israel and hezbollah. "iran and israel tend to avoid direct military confrontation, and iran's struggle against israel is mostly promoted through its allies. the contradictions between iran and israel are 'intricate and difficult to sort out'. the death of hamas leader haniyeh in iran has only added a new chapter to the contradictions and conflicts between the two sides. iran will not sit idly by, but it mainly adopts the method of supporting its allies to harass israel. for the iran-israel relationship, which is 'a long time ago', the two sides actually have a certain 'tacit understanding' in dealing with each other's relationship." newsom analyzed.
huang yuehan, reporter of the paper
(this article is from the paper. for more original information, please download the "the paper" app)
