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gold hits a new record high as expectations of continued rate cuts by the federal reserve continue

2024-09-21

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intel suddenly released important news.

on friday, september 20, local time, the three major u.s. stock indexes rose and fell. as of the close, the dow jones industrial average rose 0.09%, setting a new record high, the nasdaq fell 0.36%, and the s&p 500 fell 0.19%.

on the news front, federal reserve board members waller and bowman expressed different views on interest rate policy.

intel's stock price rose sharply in the late trading and triggered a trading suspension. it was reported that qualcomm recently contacted intel to discuss an acquisition.

dow jones, gold hit new highs

on september 20, local time, the three major u.s. stock indexes rose and fell. as of the close, the dow jones industrial average rose 38.17 points, or 0.09%, to 42063.36 points, setting a new record high; the nasdaq fell 65.66 points, or 0.36%, to 17948.32 points; and the s&p 500 fell 11.09 points, or 0.19%, to 5702.55 points.

friday is the so-called "triple witching day", when a large number of derivative contracts related to stocks, index options and futures will expire, causing the index to fluctuate violently in the late trading.

on the news front, two fed officials expressed different views on expected interest rate policy. fed governor waller said favorable inflation data convinced him to support the fed's decision to cut interest rates by half a percentage point this week. u.s. inflation has fallen faster than he expected, giving the fed more room to ease as it turns to support a weak labor market. his speech reinforced expectations that the fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its november meeting.

subsequently, federal reserve board governor bowman pointed out that she did not favor the fed's 50 basis point rate cut this week, but was inclined to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, moving toward a more neutral policy stance at a prudent pace.

currently, the cme fedwatch tool shows that the probability of the federal reserve cutting interest rates by another 50 basis points in november is more than 50%.

(source: cme fedwatch tool)

jpmorgan chase ceo jamie dimon said he remains skeptical about a soft landing for the economy after the federal reserve cut interest rates for the first time in more than four years. he said at the atlantic festival event in washington on friday: "i am more skeptical than others. i think a soft landing is less likely. i certainly hope that a soft landing can really happen, but i am more skeptical that inflation will disappear so easily, not because it has not fallen, but whether it can fall more."

bank of america strategist michael hartnett believes that the optimism in the stock market after the federal reserve's rate cuts has increased the risk of a bubble, making bonds and gold attractive hedges against a recession or a new round of inflation. the strategist said the stock market is now pricing in further fed easing and expectations of about 18% earnings growth for the s&p 500 by the end of 2025.

in other markets, u.s. treasury yields closed higher collectively, with the 2-year treasury yield up 1.4 basis points to 3.604%, the 3-year treasury yield up 1.3 basis points to 3.488%, the 5-year treasury yield up 1.7 basis points to 3.502%, the 10-year treasury yield up 2.8 basis points to 3.744%, and the 30-year treasury yield up 3.5 basis points to 4.085%.

london gold spot and comex gold futures both continued to hit new highs. london gold spot rose 1.36% to $2,621.740 per ounce, up 1.71% this week. comex gold futures rose 1.24% to $2,647.1 per ounce, up 1.39% this week. london silver spot rose 1.29% to $31.168 per ounce, up 1.49% this week. comex silver futures rose 0.23% to $31.495 per ounce, up 1.35% this week.

international oil prices fell. as of the close of the day, the price of light crude oil futures for october delivery on the new york mercantile exchange fell by 3 cents to close at $71.92 per barrel, a drop of 0.04%; the price of london brent crude oil futures for november delivery fell by 39 cents to close at $74.49 per barrel, a drop of 0.52%.

intel's intraday surge triggers trading halt

in terms of sectors, 3 of the 11 major sectors of the s&p 500 index rose and 8 fell. among them, the communication services sector and the utilities sector led the gains, with increases of 2.34% and 2.69% respectively. the industrial sector and the materials sector fell the most, with decreases of 0.69% and 0.64% respectively.

popular technology stocks rose and fell. amd rose more than 4%, intel rose more than 3%, broadcom rose more than 2%, micron technology and cisco rose more than 1%, amazon, google a, meta, and oracle rose slightly, apple, netflix, amd semiconductor, and microsoft fell slightly, arm, tsmc, and nvidia fell more than 1%, texas instruments, tesla, and qualcomm fell more than 2%, and asml fell nearly 4%.

intel rose 3.31%, while qualcomm fell 2.87%. intel rose sharply in the late trading, with a rise of 5.87%, which once triggered a trading suspension. after that, the increase expanded to more than 8%. as of the close, the increase narrowed to 3.31%.

qualcomm recently launched a takeover bid for intel, according to a report by the wall street journal on friday. the report cited people familiar with the matter as saying that although the deal is still uncertain, intel is open to qualcomm's offer, but a deal of this size will also attract antitrust scrutiny. in order to complete the deal, qualcomm may consider selling some of intel's assets or businesses.

intel has been trying to turn around its business by focusing on its chip foundry and artificial intelligence processors, but its stock price has fallen sharply in recent months due to layoffs, suspension of dividends and the resignation of a high-profile board member. intel's stock price has fallen 57% this year, becoming the worst performing stock in the dow jones industrial average. although intel once dominated the chip industry, it has struggled to maintain its advantage in the era of artificial intelligence and has fallen behind chip giants including nvidia, amd and tsmc.

tesla fell 2.32%. the u.s. securities and exchange commission (sec) said on friday that it plans to seek sanctions against elon musk for failing to appear in its court-ordered testimony in its investigation into its $44 billion acquisition of twitter (now renamed x). the sec said in a court filing that it asked musk to explain why he did not appear three hours before his scheduled testimony on september 10, a move that was seen as disrespectful to the court. musk's lawyer called the sanctions "extreme" and unnecessary, and said his testimony had been rescheduled to october 3. an sec spokesman declined to comment.

google a rose 0.89%. google is expected to take another blow from eu regulators. if the company does not act quickly to give competitors more room to develop, it may face huge fines and be ordered to change its business model. eu officials are preparing a formal charge sheet against google under the digital markets act, mainly about how google displays competitor product results in different search services (such as google flights and google hotels). if it does not comply with the regulations, google may face a heavy fine of up to 10% of its global annual revenue. people familiar with the matter said that the eu's preliminary investigation results may be released before the end of october. given the upcoming personnel reshuffle at the top of the european commission, the meeting time may be delayed, and google still has time to allay the concerns of eu authorities. the final ruling on the case will be made by the end of march next year.

nvidia fell 1.59%. g42 group, an artificial intelligence company headquartered in abu dhabi, announced on its official website on friday that it is working with us chip giant nvidia to create a climate technology laboratory, which is the first collaboration between the two companies. according to the g42 official website, the focus of the cooperation is to develop artificial intelligence (ai) solutions that can significantly improve the accuracy of global weather forecasts. the research will be based on nvidia's open platform "earth-2", which can accelerate climate and weather forecasts through interactive ai-enhanced high-resolution simulations. according to nvidia's official website, climate scientists can access generative ai-based models through earth-2's ai services, which can sample distributions thousands of times to generate large-scale collections of practical high-resolution forecasts.

financial stocks fell more than they rose. ubs group, bank of america, citigroup, regions financial, and goldman sachs fell more than 1%, while us bancorp fell nearly 1%. blackrock, deutsche bank, capital one financial, aig, visa, and mastercard fell slightly. american express, jpmorgan chase, travelers insurance, and wells fargo rose slightly. morgan stanley rose nearly 1%, and mizuho financial rose nearly 3%.

bank of america fell 1.47%. berkshire hathaway, owned by warren buffett, has once again started selling bank of america shares. according to berkshire hathaway's latest reduction statement submitted to the us sec, berkshire sold $896 million worth of shares in the three trading days from september 17 to september 19, reducing its holdings in the big bank to $33.66 billion, accounting for 10.8%. excluding the impact of taxes, buffett's total gains from selling bank of america shares since mid-july, plus dividends received since 2011, have exceeded the $14.6 billion he spent on buying bank of america shares. this means that the $33.66 billion worth of shares currently held by berkshire will become berkshire's pure profit.

most energy stocks fell. petrobras, apache oil, and murphy oil fell more than 1%, schlumberger, occidental petroleum, shell, exxonmobil, conocophillips, bp, imperial oil, and american energy fell slightly, marathon oil and chevron rose slightly, and duke energy rose more than 1%.

most of the popular chinese stocks closed down, with the nasdaq china golden dragon index down 0.60%, up 3.90% this week. futu holdings fell more than 3%, nio fell more than 2%, iqiyi, weibo, vipshop, and manbang fell more than 1%, baidu, netease, tencent music, jd.com, alibaba, and pinduoduo fell slightly, huya closed flat, new oriental and bilibili rose slightly, li auto rose more than 1%, xpeng motors rose more than 2%, and douyu rose more than 3%.