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on september 20, the market bottomed out and rebounded throughout the day, with the three major indexes rising and falling. as of the close, the shanghai composite index rose 0.03%, the shenzhen component index fell 0.15%, and the chinext index fell 0.64%.

in terms of sectors, smart government affairs, precious metals, real estate, and software development sectors led the gains, while innovative drugs, photovoltaic equipment, batteries, and biologics sectors led the losses.

in general, more stocks fell than rose, with nearly 3,500 stocks falling in the market. the turnover of the shanghai and shenzhen stock markets today was 574.7 billion, down 52.3 billion from the previous trading day.

a-shares rose sharply yesterday. i believe many investors have become optimistic again and are ready to participate in a rebound.

even if the market opens high and closes low, you can still make some money and leave, right?

but at 9 o'clock in the morning, a piece of news temporarily"withdraw"the expected high opening this time, that islpr remained unchanged in september。

the message itself is not special, mainly because yesterday's market rise itselfcontains some expectations for a reduction in lprthe expected thing did not happen, the logic of rising failed, the market sentiment was frustrated, and the three major indexes fell as a whole.open lowthe market opened with bad sentiment and the off-market funds were not in a hurry to enter the market, so after a low opening, the marketshocking downward。

there is little doubt that this was the direct cause of the market's weakness in early trading.

in addition, there is another factor that cannot be ignored: the rhythm of broad-based etf volume expansion has changed. until the "late trading", the frequency and intensity of volume expansion were not as good as yesterday.

but the stock continued to rise from the intraday low and turned positive in the late trading, which was quite sincere.

wind data shows that after 14:00,the four csi 300 etfs continued to increase in volume and all turned positiveas of the close, the trading volume of e fund csi 300 etf and hua xia csi 300 etf exceeded 5.7 billion and 3.7 billion respectively, which was three times the trading volume of yesterday.

in addition, the trading volume of huatai-pinebridge csi 300 etf and harvest csi 300 etf also exceeded yesterday.the total transaction volume of the four etfs exceeded 20.8 billion yuan.

the fact that the lpr remains unchanged this month does not mean that there will be no expectations for the follow-up. the current mainstream market view is that there is still room for policy in the fourth quarter. let's take a closer look.

why does the new lpr remain unchanged?

after the announcement of the central bank's "standing still" policy in the morning, the a50 index futures quickly fell, indicating that the "high opening" was withdrawn.

but it should also be noted that the rmb continued to strengthen afterwards.

some people believe that this is because, even though the central bank has previously reminded everyone to do a good job of "expectation management", the market still has expectations for monetary policy.

on september 5, zou lan, director of the people's bank of china's monetary policy department, said that due to factors such as the speed of bank deposits diversion to asset management products and the extent of the narrowing of banks' net interest margins, further downward movement of deposit and lending rates still faces certain constraints.

“the central bank will closely observe the policy effects and reasonably grasp the intensity and rhythm of monetary policy regulation based on the economic recovery, target achievement and specific problems facing macroeconomic operations.”

on september 19, the national development and reform commission stated that the current economic operation is generally stable, and high-quality development is being steadily promoted. at the same time, the adverse effects of changes in the external environment have increased, the conversion of new and old growth drivers has been painful, and the economic operation still faces many difficulties and challenges. however, the positive factors and favorable conditions in economic operation are also accumulating, and we have the conditions, capabilities and confidence to achieve the goals and tasks of economic and social development throughout the year.

according to media reports, wang qing, chief macro analyst at orient securities, believes thatthere are certain constraints on the current interest rate cutin the first and second quarters of this year, the net interest margin of banks was 1.54%, narrowing by 0.15 percentage points from the fourth quarter of last year, and significantly lower than the warning level of 1.8%. if the policy interest rate is continuously lowered in the short term and the lpr quotation is guided to follow up, and the interest rate of the huge stock of mortgage loans also has a large room for reduction, the net interest margin of banks will face a large downward pressure in the second half of the year, which is not conducive to the stability of bank operations.

it said: "taking into account the current economic situation and price trends, the central bank is likely to lower the main policy interest rate, that is, the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, in the fourth quarter. the reduction is estimated to be 10 to 20 basis points, and the lpr quotation will be guided to follow suit at that time."

zhou maohua, a macro researcher at the financial markets department of everbright bank, said that there is sufficient room for conventional domestic policies, and as the effects of domestic macro policies are released, consumption and domestic demand are steadily recovering, the internal circulation of the economy is unblocked, market sentiment is gradually warming up, and the overall operating conditions of banks are gradually improving. there is still room for lpr to be lowered.

from the perspective of stock speculation, some investment experts also believe that: "as long as the interest rate cut cycle begins, it will definitely be good for us (a-shares). as for when the good news will be reflected in a-shares - it will only be late, not never."

why are hong kong stocks more resistant to price increases than a-shares recently?

it is worth noting that hong kong stocks rose again today. for example, the hang seng index rose for 8 consecutive days, and the hang seng technology index also rose for 5 consecutive days.

why are hong kong stocks performing better than a-shares in the past two days at the beginning of the interest rate cut cycle?

cicc analysis pointed out that the hong kong stock market is highly sensitive to changes in external liquidity and hong kong's linked exchange rate system.more sensitive to the fed's interest rate cutstherefore, compared with a-shares, hong kong stocks are more flexible.

in addition, hong kong stocks have relatively good earnings, and valuations and investor positions are more reasonable, which together support the relative performance of hong kong stocks. in this market, high-dividend stocks and technology growth stocks may become the main line of the market.

another view is that the bottom of hong kong stocks has been consolidated, and from a technical perspective, multiple indexes have formed a triple or quadruple bottom structure.this is not only more conducive to a rebound, but also has guiding significance for a-shares.

chen li chen li's team from soochow securities said that hong kong stocks generally bottom out and recover at the same time or ahead of a-shares.

judging from the historical trends of the hang seng index and the csi 300 index, the two are basically consistent. the rebound turning point of the hang seng index usually appears earlier than or simultaneously with the csi 300 index, and the longest time is no more than two months.

for example, the hong kong stock market bottomed out in late january 2024, while the a-shares bottomed out in early february and rebounded; similarly, the hong kong stock market bottomed out first in march 2022, and the a-shares bottomed out at the end of april; in addition, in february 2016 and march 2020, both bottomed out basically at the same time.

the concept of information technology and real estate sectors strengthened

food safety concept late trading changes

finally, let’s take a look at the sections.

1) xinchuang

as of the closing, electronic id cards, huawei's industrial chain, network security and other directions all performed well.

on the news front, the fujian provincial development and reform commission recently approved the feasibility study report and preliminary design plan of the fujian provincial prison administration bureau's information and innovation transformation project.

the shenzhen local financial management bureau publicly solicited opinions on the "implementation opinions of shenzhen on supporting the high-quality development of digital finance (draft for comments)". it proposed to promote the construction of shenzhen's financial ict research base and complete the ict research projects of financial institutions such as banks, securities, and insurance and their partners.

capital securities said that my country's ict market started early and entered its first peak period of construction in 2020. the pace of construction in different fields is different. party and government ict at the municipal level and above will be mainly constructed from 2020 to 2022, and county-level party and government ict will be gradually launched from 2023. starting from 2021, the party and government ict market will begin to expand to the ict markets of operators, finance and other industries. with the arrival of a new round of fiscal support and the catalysis of industry ict policies, ict construction is expected to enter a new round of acceleration.

2) real estate

on the news front, the beijing municipal committee of the communist party of china implemented the implementation opinions of the "decision of the cpc central committee on further comprehensively deepening reforms and promoting chinese-style modernization". it mentioned that the housing system of renting and purchasing should be improved. a new real estate development model that conforms to the characteristics of the capital should be established at a faster pace, and the construction and supply of affordable housing should be increased to meet the rigid housing needs of the working class.

3) food safety

at the end of the trading day, the sector suddenly rose and turned positive. stocks such as shipu testing, huashengchang, jieqiang equipment, and kehua biotechnology all showed abnormal movements.

similar trends also appeared in the nuclear pollution prevention and control sector.

on the news front, according to the official website of the ministry of foreign affairs, china and japan have reached a consensus on the discharge of nuclear contaminated water from the fukushima daiichi nuclear power plant into the sea.