wall street to lujiazui selection丨us stocks surged, beware of a fall! many us real estate-related stocks hit new highs this year; youtube will launch a new ai function
2024-09-20
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① the fed aggressively cuts interest rates, and u.s. stocks surged. beware of a fall after a surge
u.s. stocks closed higher on thursday, led by technology stocks. the dow jones industrial average rose more than 500 points, and the s&p 500 closed above 5,700 for the first time, both hitting record highs. the federal reserve cut interest rates for the first time in four years, and the market believes that this will help the u.s. economy avoid a recession. the decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points for the first time reflects policymakers' intention to maintain what powell described as a "solid" labor market. the number of first-time unemployment claims in the united states released last night lived up to expectations and fell to the lowest level since may. yesterday, european stocks followed the rise in global financial markets and approached record highs. the bank of england announced that it would keep interest rates unchanged and said it would not rush to cut interest rates. wall street banks have different views on the speed and depth of the fed's interest rate cuts in the next year, and this disagreement is destined to make financial markets uneasy before the clouds clear. hours after the rate cut, economists at goldman sachs revised their outlook and now expect the fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each meeting from november to june next year. jpmorgan chase, which bet on the first cut, insisted that there would be another 50 basis point cut in november, but the specifics would depend on the state of the labor market.
commentator xu guangyu:the decline in the labor market is the most important reason for the united states to accelerate interest rate cuts. the 50 basis point reduction exceeded expectations. on the day of the rate cut, u.s. stocks and crude oil fell to varying degrees. this radical rate cut has a greater impact on the market, and has a negative impact on the u.s. stock market, because the core of the u.s. stock technology bull market is high interest rates and capital inflows. the shift in monetary policy and the unexpected start will definitely have a negative impact. from the fed's wording, we can see the maintenance of the market. powell pointed out that a 50 basis point rate cut is an abnormal rate cut. at the same time, non-u.s. currencies will usher in a turnaround, and the a-share and hong kong stock markets have already responded. in addition, looking at the history of the fed's rate cuts, the market will usher in greater fluctuations, including the internet crisis in 2000 and the subsequent subprime crisis. even if the u.s. stock market rose sharply overnight, investors should be vigilant.
② the federal reserve cut interest rates beyond expectations! many real estate-related stocks hit new highs this year
the federal reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points to start an easing cycle. stimulated by this positive news, u.s. real estate-related stocks rose together. zillow-a and zillow-c rose more than 4% overnight after rising more than 3% on wednesday, with a total increase of more than 8% in two trading days; jones lang lasalle rose 4.8% in two trading days, and home depot rose nearly 1.9% in total, setting new highs for the year. market analysts believe that the real estate market is a typical interest rate sensitive industry, and its performance has been directly related to interest rates in history. the current market reaction shows that investors have begun to price in possible future interest rate cuts. in the united states, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has fallen to about 6.50%, which will encourage more home buyers to enter the market and promote the recovery of real estate transaction activities.
commentator xu guangyu:zillow's second-quarter performance grew rapidly, with both residential and rental businesses growing significantly, and wall street investment banks raised their target prices. however, real estate stocks have diverged, with the stock prices of most real estate developers, such as horton homes, falling. the core factor affecting us real estate stocks may not be interest rates, but capital inflows. the fed's unexpected rate cut may lead to a peak in real estate stocks.
③ eu new car sales in august hit a three-year low, pure electric car sales plummeted 43.9%, and tesla fell 43.2%
data released by the european automobile manufacturers association on thursday showed that new car sales in the european union fell 18.3% in august to the lowest level in three years, dragged down by double-digit declines in major markets such as germany, france and italy. among them, sales of pure electric vehicles fell for the fourth consecutive month, a drop of 43.9%, and sales in germany and france, the largest electric vehicle markets in the eu, fell by 68.8% and 33.1% respectively. plug-in car sales fell 22.3%, but hybrid car sales increased by 6.6%, with a market share of 31.3%. car sales in europe are already far below pre-covid-19 levels, and automakers such as volkswagen have warned that this trend may not change in the foreseeable future. tesla's sales in the eu fell 43.2% in august, and saic group's sales fell 27.5%. in recent months, hybrid vehicles have increased their market share in the eu as buyers see them as an affordable compromise between fuel vehicles and pure electric vehicles.
commentator xu guangyu:the main reason for the eu's new car sales hitting a three-year low is that the decline in pure electric vehicles has affected the overall sales data, and the competitiveness of european car brands has declined. however, data shows that the sales of hybrid vehicles have increased, and the decline in the new energy market is still continuing. the main reasons include: the decline in policy support, differences in environmental protection incentive policies, and high tariffs imposed by regulators.
④ youtube launches ai creation tool: a revolutionary innovation that enables one-click video generation
google's youtube announced at its "made on youtube" special event on wednesday that it will introduce a series of advanced artificial intelligence features for creators on its shorts platform, which are based on google deepmind's video generation model. among them, the veo feature, which will be launched later this year, will allow creators to add virtual backgrounds to videos through ai technology, and will launch the function of generating independent 6-second video clips with simple text prompts next year. at the same time, youtube also plans to add new features to its studio application, including the use of ai to generate video titles, thumbnails and creative content, which are expected to be launched before the end of the year. other ai features include: "automatic dubbing" function that can convert videos into multiple languages, ai tools that allow creators to interact with fans through the new community section of the app, etc. youtube said that all ai-generated content will be watermarked and labeled to clearly indicate that the content was created by ai.
commentator xu guangyu:the launch of the ai generation tool by youtube shorts once again proves that the short video industry has always been at the forefront of ai. in the future, the application of ai in the short video industry will undoubtedly be further expanded and deepened. however, whether the use of ai will affect the quality of short videos has obvious two-sided issues.
⑤ citigroup expects insufficient supply in the fourth quarter of the oil market and reiterates that brent crude oil will fall to $60 in 2025
citigroup released a report saying that the oil market is expected to see an off-season supply shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter, which may provide some temporary support for brent oil prices in the range of $70-75 per barrel. francesco martoccia and other citi analysts said in a report that reduced supply from libya, improved compliance with russia's opec+ obligations, and the organization's postponement of plans to increase production are all factors that have caused the supply shortage. citigroup reiterated that brent is expected to fall to $60 in 2025, and even if opec+ maintains production cuts throughout the year, the global market will face a supply surplus of 1 million barrels per day.
commentator xu guangyu:the fed's rate cuts suggest that the possibility of economic slowdown in the future is increasing, which puts downward pressure on oil prices. although there are local production cuts and supply shortages, it is difficult to push oil prices up significantly under the influence of the overall economic environment.
(this article comes from china business network)
