support negotiations or increase military aid? the west is exposed to disagreements at a critical moment in the russian-ukrainian war
2024-09-19
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according to xinhua news agency, the ukrainian pravda reported on september 18, citing a source from the ukrainian national security service, that in the early morning of that day, ukraine used drones to attack and detonate a large missile ammunition depot in toropets, tver oblast, russia. the source said that the ammunition depot that was attacked stored "iskander" and "tochka-u" missiles, aviation-guided bombs and artillery ammunition. after the ammunition depot was attacked, a violent explosion and fire occurred, and the fire spread over an area of more than 6 square kilometers.
while the ukrainian army launched air strikes on russian ammunition depots, the russian army has also recently stepped up its attacks on ukrainian infrastructure and continued to focus on the eastern region of ukraine, approaching pokrovsk, an important local logistics hub. a ukrainian soldier revealed that the russian army's recent offensive against pokrovsk has slowed down, but the ukrainian army on the front line still faces the dilemma of shortage of ammunition, manpower and low morale. in kursk oblast, russia, the russian army has begun to fight back. the russian ministry of defense said on the 16th that it had recaptured two settlements. apti araudinov, deputy director of the russian armed forces military and political general directorate and commander of the "akhmat" special forces, announced on the 19th that two more settlements had been liberated.
as the russian-ukrainian war is about to enter its third critical autumn and winter season and there is still no breakthrough on the battlefield, ukraine is urging the west to lift restrictions on ukraine's use of aid weapons to carry out strikes deep into russian territory. some ukrainian officials said that attacks such as those in toropets are proof that such actions will not bring additional risks of russia launching a counterattack. so far, the united states has not made a final decision on the "lifting of the ban" on weapons, but the biden administration has been exposed to being under increasing pressure from nato. whether to promote negotiations, avoid escalation, or further increase military aid to ukraine, western countries are split into two camps.
on september 19, 2024, local time, in ukraine, a russian soldier launched a drone at an undisclosed location. visual china photo
the united states is "still hesitating", russia says it is "ready to resume nuclear testing"
in recent days, the united states, britain and other countries have frequently sent signals that they may be willing to allow ukraine to use western long-range weapons to strike russian territorial targets. however, after russian president putin issued a strong warning that the conflict would usher in a "qualitative change" and mean "war with russia", the west has not yet made a final decision on this.
the associated press reported on september 19 that the biden administration is still unsure whether it should authorize ukraine to launch long-range missiles deep into russia. the united states is worried that the "lifting of the ban" may have limited impact on the war situation and is very risky. as biden is preparing to meet with ukrainian president zelensky next week, u.s. officials said they have asked ukraine to more clearly state its combat objectives to understand how kiev will use these weapons and how they will fit into the broader war strategy.
politico, a u.s. political news website, published an article on the 18th saying that a possible workaround is for the united states to insist that all ukrainian actions against russia must be approved and explicitly exclude refineries and other sensitive targets, which may also include moscow. but the conversation about the "lifting of the ban" on weapons may ultimately lead to a bigger question that the biden team has avoided since the beginning of the conflict, namely, "whether the united states really wants ukraine to win." the report also said that what ukraine's "victory" would look like has never been clearly stated so far, and "not losing" may be the closest definition.
"they don't want ukraine to fail, and they don't want russia to fail. these positions are irreconcilable," eerik kross, an estonian mp and former intelligence officer, told politico.
currently, the united states is under increasing pressure from nato allies. a senior us official revealed to the associated press that at the nato defense ministers' meeting held recently, most defense ministers of countries advocated supporting the "lifting of the ban" on arms, and us joint chiefs of staff chairman brown also participated in the meeting.
ukraine is currently eager to use the army tactical missile system (atacms) provided by the united states and the storm shadow missile provided by the united kingdom to strike targets deep into russia. biden had previously discussed this issue when he met with british prime minister starmer. people familiar with the matter believe that starmer is seeking biden's approval for ukraine to use the storm shadow missile to expand its strike range against russia. since the components of the missile are made in the united states, biden's approval may be required.
on the 17th, nato secretary general stoltenberg spoke out on the matter, saying that the decision to allow ukraine to use western long-range weapons to strike russia would not become a "red line" that would prompt russia to escalate the conflict. he said: "putin has announced many red lines before, but he did not escalate (the conflict), that is, he did not let nato countries directly get involved in the conflict."
in response, russian presidential press secretary peskov said on the 18th that stoltenberg’s remarks were "extremely short-sighted and unprofessional" and his position was "extremely provocative and dangerous."
also on the 17th, on the occasion of the 70th anniversary of the establishment of the russian central nuclear test site, andrei sinitsyn, the head of the test site, said in an interview with rossiyskaya gazeta that he was ready to resume nuclear testing. "if the order comes," the test site can start nuclear testing "at any time." russia's kommersant reported that russia has never conducted nuclear tests in its modern history, but in the context of the sharp escalation of confrontation with the west, moscow has recently heard more and more voices supporting the resumption of nuclear testing. previously, putin said in june that russia would conduct nuclear tests "if necessary," but "there is no such need so far."
support negotiations or increase military aid? "ukraine's allies split into two camps"
the moscow times reported on the 18th that the third autumn and winter of the russian-ukrainian conflict is approaching, there is still no sign of a breakthrough on the battlefield, and the prospects for peace talks remain unclear. against this background, ukraine's allies have gradually split into two camps. some countries oppose negotiations in the foreseeable future and insist on increasing military support for ukraine, while some countries are worried about the risk of escalation of the conflict and have begun to seek diplomatic solutions to the conflict.
bloomberg reported on the 17th, citing people familiar with the matter, that although all of ukraine's western allies have emphasized that the final decision can only be made by the ukrainian authorities and that they will not exert any negotiating pressure on them, as part of the 2025 strategic discussions, some countries have begun to consider more seriously how to end the war through negotiations, which has caused concerns in several western countries that ukraine may be forced to cease fire prematurely.
some analysts believe that the time between the us election in november and the inauguration of the us president in january next year is considered a possible "window of opportunity", during which the outgoing biden administration may have more political wiggle room to reach an agreement. with the change of us government and the rise of far-right forces in europe, continued military and financial support for ukraine may face uncertainty. but the key issue in the negotiations is how to provide security guarantees to ukraine in the future while ensuring that ukraine's western allies will not be dragged into a direct conflict with russia.
earlier, the wall street journal disclosed on september 11 that ukraine had been told that its complete victory would require hundreds of billions of dollars in support from the west, which is something that neither the united states nor europe can actually provide, and ukraine may need to formulate a more realistic plan. according to the kyiv independent, zelensky said in his speech on the evening of the 18th that all the key points of ukraine's "victory plan" have been formulated.
the details of the plan have not been disclosed, but zelensky has said that the plan aims to "pave the way for a reliable peace" and consists of four key points and one point related to the post-war situation, focusing on ukraine's security and geopolitical status, the free use of foreign military aid without restrictions, and economic support. in addition, a cross-border raid on kursk is also part of the strategy. ukrainian presidential adviser podolak stressed that the plan does not include ceding territory to russia, and said that freezing the conflict cannot really end the war.
zelensky had previously said that he would discuss the "victory plan" with biden, democratic presidential candidate harris and republican presidential candidate trump during his visit to the united states this month. u.s. government officials said the other day that the u.s. side was aware of the content of the plan and "believed it would work." trump said on the 18th that he "might" meet with zelensky during his visit to the united states, but did not provide further details.
according to al jazeera on the 17th, us republican vice presidential candidate cyrus vance recently revealed some details of trump's plan to end the russia-ukraine conflict in a podcast. vance said, "it is possible that the existing demarcation line between russia and ukraine will become a demilitarized zone," but he did not discuss the location or scope of this demilitarized zone, only emphasizing that "strict precautions" will be taken in the area. vance also said, "ukraine retains its independent sovereignty, and russia obtains a neutrality guarantee from ukraine - ukraine does not join nato, and does not join some of its allied institutions. this is what the final agreement looks like."
despite the increasing discussion about negotiations, russia and ukraine seem to be preparing for a protracted war. on the 16th, putin signed an order to expand the armed forces for the third time since the conflict broke out, requiring an increase of 180,000 military personnel to 1.5 million personnel in the russian armed forces from december 1, 2024. at the same time, the ukrainian ministry of finance said on the 18th that the ukrainian verkhovna rada (parliament) passed a budget amendment that day, planning to add nearly 500 billion hryvnias (about 85.25 billion yuan) for national security and defense spending.
the paper reporter hou danwei
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