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in the three years since winning the championship in 2021, the milwaukee bucks have tied for the second-best regular season record in the league (158 wins and 88 losses, winning percentage: 64.2%). but during this period, they have only won 10 playoff games and were eliminated in the first round as a high-ranking seeded team in both 2023 and 2024.

the main reason for their poor playoff performance is health issues. in the past three years, giannis antetokounmpo and khris middleton have only played together in three of the bucks' 23 playoff games. this team still has a core of a championship-contending roster. they may just need to stay healthy in april and may.

but the bucks also need to do better on defense, as their defensive performance declined significantly last season. their defense ranked only 19th in the league, and their points lost per 100 possessions were 0.5 points higher than the league average. this was the bucks' worst defensive season in the past six years.

the bucks' defense has improved since doc rivers took over the team in late january, but it was still only middle of the pack in the final 36 games of the regular season.

bucks 2023-24 season record & offensive and defensive efficiency at a glance

offrtg: points per 100 possessions

defrtg: points lost per 100 possessions

netrtg: net score per 100 possessions

of the past 23 nba championship teams, only two ranked outside the top 10 in defensive efficiency during the regular season. below we will analyze in detail what went wrong on defense for the bucks last season and how they can return to the top 10 defensive ranks.

1. changes in defensive areas

a new coach brought a new defensive scheme to milwaukee, and the bucks statistically saw a big change in how they defended the pick-and-roll between the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons. they also saw more changes with the midseason coaching change.

bucks defensive screen data over the past two seasons

under former coach adrian griffin, the bucks (to some extent) moved away from the "sink and sink" defense they had played for five seasons under mike budenholzer. the change was even more radical when rivers took over.

maybe that's the right thing to do, as opponents are most efficient at scoring when the bucks are playing "sinking back." not only are opponents shooting more efficiently at the rim when brook lopez is on the court, but he's also having to defend more shots at the rim than he did in the 2022-23 season.

according to statistics, the bucks allowed opponents to make 52.7 breakthroughs per 100 possessions, ranking third in the league, higher than 49.2 times (ninth) in the previous season.

the quality of pick-and-roll defense does not only depend on the big man, the player guarding the ball handler also needs to do his part to force the ball to go to the right path. the bucks did not do a good job defending offensive point guards last season...

luo, who turned 36 in april this year, also had difficulty blocking the defensive players in front of him when he was away from the basket...

2. more aggressive defense leads to more fouls, but not more turnovers

for the second straight season, the bucks ranked in the top 10 in three of the four defensive elements (effective field goal percentage, rebounding percentage and free throw rate), but their rankings in all three statistics declined. only five teams saw their opponents' free throw rate increase from the 2022-23 season to last season, and the bucks had the third-highest increase.

opponents' free throw rates (and overall efficiency) are highest when games enter rotation time, with portis' fouls per 36 minutes rising from 2.3 (2022-23) to 3.4, while andre jackson jr.'s 5.8 fouls per 36 minutes are the most among the 186 guards who played at least 500 minutes last season.

the foul count could also be related to defending an aggressive point guard and not being able to stop the ball handler from getting into the paint…

while the bucks ranked in the top 10 in three of the four defensive elements, they ranked last in opponent turnover rate (11.9 per 100 possessions) for the second consecutive season. a more aggressive defensive system should result in more turnovers, but while every other team had at least two players averaging at least 2.6 steals per 36 minutes (minimum 500 minutes played), the bucks did not.

3. new players should help the bucks' defense

the bucks didn't spend much in free agency this summer, but they did add three veterans on minimum-salary contracts -- delon wright, gary trent jr. and taurean prince -- who can help the team improve on the defensive end.

wright and trent, in particular, should help the bucks force more turnovers. they averaged 4.1 and 3.1 interceptions per 36 minutes, respectively, over the past three years. wright has an excellent wingspan, and trent is also very aggressive…

the bucks are better than their defensive ranking all season (19th) against the league's top 10 offensive teams (116.2 points per 100 possessions), and their defensive numbers are good, allowing 106.9 points per 100 possessions in the 677 minutes that the foursome of antetokounmpo, lillard, middleton and lopez have played together.

lopez is not getting any younger, and they still need the rest of the rotation to play better defense, and their core lineup should see more playing time this season. a healthier and more flexible middleton, plus new members of the rotation, could get the bucks into (or close to) the top 10 defense again. if they can do that, the race for the top tier in the eastern conference will become a lot more interesting.

(nba official website)