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on the evening of september 16th, local time, the u.s. stock market opened.appleat one point, it fell by nearly 3%. as of the close, apple's stock price fell 2.78% to $216.32 per share, and its market value evaporated by $93.9 billion (about rmb 665.7 billion) overnight, with a total market value of $3.29 trillion.

on the news front, tianfeng international analyst ming-chi kuo said that the pre-order sales of the iphone 16 series in the first weekend are estimated to be about 37 million units, a year-on-year decrease of about 12.7% compared with the first weekend sales of the iphone 15 series last year. the key is that the iphone 16 pro series is lower than expected.

guo mingchi pointed out that the iphone 16 pro series shipped significantly later than the 15 pro series. in addition to the increase in pre-order inventory, the year-on-year decrease in sales during the first weekend was mainly due to lower-than-expected demand. it is worth noting that the sales of iphone 16 plus and iphone 16 increased during the first weekend, but this had limited impact on increasing overall iphone shipments.

bank of americaandjpmorgan chaseanalysts at companies such as nvidia and nvidia noted that the shipping timing may indicate that market demand for the iphone 16 pro models is lower than the previous year.

influenced by the above news, apple concept stocks in hong kong stocks fell on september 16. as of yesterday's close,q technologydown 4.33% to hk$4.2 per share;gaowei electronicsdown 1.44%,tongda groupdown 2.82%.apple's market value evaporated by $69 billion (about 490 billion yuan) in one week from the $3.359 trillion when it released its new product on september 9.

market analysis previously predicted that the artificial intelligence features equipped in the new apple iphone 16 series phones will help drive consumers to upgrade their devices, as these tools are only available on newer models above the iphone 15 pro.

according to a report by dan ives, an analyst at investment bank wedbush securities, the iphone 16 will be a huge "upgrade opportunity." he predicts that apple will usher in a "super cycle" because about 300 million iphones in the past four years are waiting to be upgraded.

photo taken by a reporter from china business news at huaqiang north market

however, judging from the current reaction of the chinese market, it has become easier to "grab goods" in major channels than before, and subsidies from major e-commerce companies are also increasing. in the apple store tmall official flagship store, the iphone 16 standard version series still has the first batch of supply some time after the pre-order started, and whether it is official channels or authorized dealers, the time difference in stocking and delivery of iphone 16 series sellers seems to be disappearing.

on september 13, on the douyin platform, multiple accounts with the page introduction of "apple authorized dealer" started live broadcasts. the anchors mainly introduced the selling points of the iphone 16's upgraded camera function, improved battery life, and multiple color options. the number of online people in each live broadcast room ranged from 5,000 to 10,000. the page information showed that the iphone 16 ordered by consumers in the live broadcast room will be shipped in batches at 8 am on september 20, and will be shipped at the latest on september 22. late shipment will result in compensation. in addition, the reporter checkedjd.comaccording to the platform, the estimated shipping and delivery time of iphone 16 in beijing is september 20, which is synchronized with the time on apple's official website.

in addition, a reporter from china business news recently visited the huaqiangbei market and saw that the iphone 16 series phone cases are already on the market. "there are some changes from before, so this year our overall stocking volume has increased a bit, the range is about 10%, but it is mainly in the pro version." a store seller in seg communication market told reporters that if apple does not change, the chinese market will soon be eaten up by domestic mobile phones.

"last year's products did not sell well overall. huawei's return has had a huge impact on apple," the seller in the above-mentioned store told reporters.

photo taken by a reporter from china business news at huaqiang north market

according to the financial report, in the fiscal quarter ending at the end of june this year, the iphone is still apple's most important business, but its share of total sales has dropped to about 46%. in the fiscal year ending in september last year, iphone revenue was us$200.6 billion, down from us$205.5 billion in the previous year.

weak growth in china is another factor behind weak iphone sales. iphone sales in china fell 6.5% in the past quarter. apple has offered deeper discounts in china to counter competition from local rivals such as huawei. the company offered discounts of up to 2,300 yuan on some models in may.

it is worth noting that, on september 10, the day after apple's press conference, huawei released a three-screen folding phone in an effort to expand its lead over apple in the world's largest smartphone market. in the chinese smartphone market, apple's ranking has fallen from third to sixth, with a year-on-year decline of 2% in market share, but still accounting for 14% of the market share.

huawei's website showed that day that pre-orders for the new smartphone had exceeded 3.3 million. by comparison, data from research firm idc showed that the total global foldable phone market in the second quarter was about 4 million units.

deng zhijian, director of investment strategy for china at dbs bank, told the first financial reporter: "huawei's new products were announced very soon, which will make domestic consumers wait and see, and will also make investors take a wait-and-see attitude. in addition, apple's new products have not received as much attention in china as before, because if you only look at the functions that can be used in china, they are indeed lacking in creativity, and many are just upgrades of existing functions."

however, jene park, an analyst at research firm counterpoint, pointed out that in terms of the quantity of huawei product sales and supply, it is not expected to have a significant impact on apple's overall business, but it may have some impact on sales in markets such as china.

guo mingchi predicts that apple's iphone shipments will drop sharply by about 38% in 2024, from 310 million units in 2023 to about 200 million units. he believes that apple's lack of innovation in iphone products in recent years is one of the main reasons for consumers' reduced expectations for new products.

however, kuo believes that although the sales of the pro series are lower than expected, the production plan of the supply chain will not change much in the short term, and apple still has the opportunity to increase sales after the launch of apple intelligence and subsequent peak season promotions (china's double eleven).

he also said that if apple intelligence, which will be launched in the fourth quarter of 2024, and "double 11" do not significantly increase sales of the iphone 16 series, apple will adopt a more aggressive product strategy in 2025 to boost market demand.

it is worth mentioning that according to the reporter's understanding, in order to boost sales in china, relevant supply chain executives of apple will visit the chinese supply chain on september 18. at the same time, apple will preheat the new iphone 16 series products in the near future.