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jin guanping: continue to work hard to expand effective demand

2024-09-16

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according to the data from the national bureau of statistics, the national consumer price index (cpi) rose by 0.6% year-on-year in august, expanding for two consecutive months; the national industrial producer price index (ppi) fell by 1.8% year-on-year, with a larger decline than the previous month. overall, the current overall price level in my country continues to be at a low level, and the problem of insufficient domestic effective demand is still prominent, and macroeconomic policies need to continue to work hard.

prices are related to economic operations and affect people's lives. as two important indicators for measuring price changes in economic activities, cpi reflects the price level of the consumption link, and ppi reflects the price level of the production link. since the beginning of this year, cpi has shown a trend of a mild recovery from a low level, reflecting that with the continued recovery of the economy, the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, and the improvement of market supply and demand relations. in this process, we must pay attention to closely monitor the impact of rising prices of food and other prices on residents' lives, and ensure the supply and price stability of people's livelihood commodities. in august, ppi fell year-on-year, and the "scissors gap" with cpi widened to 2.4 percentage points, indicating that the production and operation pressure of industrial enterprises is still relatively large, and the foundation for the recovery of industrial enterprises' benefits needs to be further consolidated.

prices essentially reflect the relationship between supply and demand. the third plenary session of the 20th cpc central committee proposed that we should implement macroeconomic policies and actively expand domestic demand in accordance with the decisions and arrangements of the cpc central committee on economic work. the political bureau of the cpc central committee pointed out in its deployment of economic work in the second half of the year that "we should focus on boosting consumption to expand domestic demand" and "we should further mobilize the enthusiasm of private investment and expand effective investment."

to expand effective demand, we must stimulate consumption with potential and expand effective investment. behind consumption is income, and behind income is employment. to stimulate consumption potential, we must give more emphasis to the employment priority orientation and increase the income of urban and rural residents through multiple channels; focus on areas with strong growth and driving force, accelerate the expansion and quality improvement of service consumption, and effectively promote bulk consumption. to expand effective investment, on the one hand, we must give full play to the amplification effect of government investment, make good use of ultra-long-term special government bonds, and promote the "double-heavy" construction work with high quality. on the other hand, we must further improve the long-term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in the construction of major national projects, improve the mechanism for stimulating the vitality of social capital investment and promoting investment landing, so that private capital dares to invest, is willing to invest, and can invest.

promoting large-scale equipment renewal and replacement of old consumer goods with new ones is an important means to expand effective demand. it can not only promote consumption and stimulate investment, but also increase advanced production capacity and improve production efficiency. since july, relevant departments have coordinated and made good use of ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds, and have stepped up support for the "two new" work by increasing scale, lowering thresholds, expanding scope, and simplifying processes. many places have recently issued implementation plans to implement them in detail. in the next stage, demand in related fields will be released faster.

from the perspective of future trends, the increase in travel during the mid-autumn festival and national day holidays will drive up demand for service consumption. the fourth quarter is also a traditional peak consumption season. domestic supply and demand will further balance. the cpi is expected to continue its mild recovery overall, and the year-on-year decline in the ppi is expected to narrow. (source: economic daily author: jin guanping)