news

cailianshe news, september 15 (editor: shi zhengcheng)the federal reserve's interest rate cut cycle, which the global market has been waiting for for a long time, has finally entered the final countdown.

as the highlight of next week's "super central bank week", the federal reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2 a.m. beijing time on thursday, when it is expected to cut interest rates for the first time.the key question is whether it will be reduced by 25 or 50 basis points.after a wild swing in the past week, the cme fed watch tool showed on friday thatthe market's odds for these two options are 50-50.。

(source: cme)

walter todd, cio of greenwood capital, believes that the federal reserve should directly launch a 50 basis point rate cut. now the two-year u.s. treasury yield is around 3.6%, while the federal funds rate range is 5.25%-5.50%. they are late in initiating rate cuts and need to catch up.

but the problem is that before the market rekindled expectations for a larger rate cut this week, the fed officials' argument was still to cut 25 basis points first, wait and see how the economy develops before deciding on the next move.it remains unknown whether powell, who always likes to wait for the market to reach a consensus before taking action, will dare to deliver an unexpected interest rate cut.。

as the fed officials have entered a silent period,therefore, the movements of the guy in the picture below in the first few days of next week are particularly important - nick timiros, a macro journalist known as the "federal reserve's mouthpiece"this week, it was his article that sparked the market's eager anticipation for a 50 basis point rate cut, pushing the s&p 500 and dow jones industrial average to near record highs again.

(source: live broadcast of the federal reserve press conference)

just as important as how much the fed cuts rates next week will be the release of updated economic forecasts — includingofficials' expectations for the path of future rate cuts。

the bank of england and the bank of japan are expected to keep their policy rates unchanged next week after the fed closes.market focus is on officials' outlook for subsequent rate cutsinvestors are now expecting the bank of england to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its november and december meetings.the focus of the bank of japan is whether kazuo ueda will cause another shock to the global market.even after the unexpected rate hike in july triggered a sharp drop in japanese stocks, japanese monetary policy officials still secretly retained the inclination to continue raising interest rates.

(the "consequences" of the last unexpected rate hike by the bank of japan, source: tradingview)

in addition to macro policies, there are also many things to watch at the individual stock level next week.

according to the time,next monday, microsoft ceo satya nadella will host a special event to discuss "the next phase of innovation with copilot."against the backdrop of huang renxun's speech this week and openai's release of the "strawberry" model, both of which significantly boosted u.s. stock sentiment, nadella's performance will also be closely watched.

of course, if nadella disappoints the market.ai computing giants huang renxun and su zifeng will also appear at salesforce's annual event on tuesday。

since it is still the off-season for financial reports, there are not many financial reports worth paying attention to.fedex to report earnings after the market closes on thursday, options trading suggests the stock price could swing 7% by then. investors will be closely watching the delivery giant's expectations for the year-end holiday season.

finally, next friday will also be another “triple witching day” — the expiration date for individual stock options, stock index futures and options, days that tend to see extra volatility.

overview of important financial events next week (beijing time)

monday (september 16):us september new york fed manufacturing index, european investment bank chief economist meeting

tuesday (september 17):eurozone zew economic sentiment index for september, us retail sales data for august, us nahb housing market index for september

-----china a shares resume trading after holiday-----

wednesday (september 18):eurozone august cpi, u.s. august housing starts/building permits, indonesian central bank announces interest rate decision, hong kong stocks closed

thursday (september 19):the federal reserve announced its interest rate decision and a summary of economic expectations. fed chairman powell held a press conference. the bank of england announced its interest rate decision and meeting minutes. the norwegian central bank announced its interest rate decision. the central bank of turkey announced its interest rate decision.

friday (september 20):china's one-year/five-year lpr, bank of japan announces interest rate decision & kazuo ueda press conference, japan's august core cpi, ecb president lagarde's speech