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“but this does not mean that the kmt will definitely take the kaohsiung mayoral seat in 2026…”

recently, taipei's political arena has been shrouded in news about corruption by people's party chairman ko wen-je, causing people to become tired of it. against this backdrop, a tvbs poll on the 2026 kaohsiung mayoral election unexpectedly broke the silence and created a stir in public opinion on the island.

this poll shows that no matter who the democratic progressive party runs for in 2026, kuomintang legislator ke wen'en will be ahead in the polls, and the lead will be 5%.

▲kmt legislator ke zhien

"the ko chien miracle"?

it's too early to say what the polls are

election polls have long been a technical tool for social control and leading trends in taiwan, and the so-called "institutional effect" is very different. tvbs is relatively objective, neutral, and has a higher credibility, which is one of the reasons why this poll can cause a little splash.

there is no doubt that this poll will help consolidate and boost the confidence of the blue camp, but it does not mean that the kaohsiung mayoral seat in 2026 will be in the pocket of the kuomintang.

first, this poll shows that 40%-45% support does not break through the base of ko chien-en and the kmt, and is not enough for her to be elected. in the 2022 kaohsiung mayoral election, ko chien-en, who represented the kmt, received 40.16% of the votes.

secondly, this is a poll conducted before the dpp has completed integration and the candidate has not yet been "decided". currently, there are as many as five people in the dpp who are interested in seeking the nomination, including green camp legislators lin daihua, lai ruilong, xu zhijie, chiu yiying and former head of the taiwan labor department xu mingchun. in order to belittle their opponents within the party, their supporters havethe possibility of deliberately watering down ko chien-en during the poll is not ruled out。only when the green camp’s candidate is decided and it is a one-on-one situation between the blue and green camps, will the polls be more valuable as a reference.

furthermore, this is a poll conducted against the backdrop of ke wenzhe being politically persecuted by the democratic progressive party.it is not ruled out that supporters of the white camp may emotionally vote for ko chien-en in order to counter the dpp.if the election comes to a real one, will the white camp vote for the kmt candidate? it is too early to draw a conclusion.

in fact, an internal poll conducted by a local political leader in kaohsiung during the same period showed that except for xu mingchun, ko chien's support rate lagged behind the other four green camp legislators.this tvbs poll obviously cannot be interpreted as kaohsiung will definitely "turn from green to blue" in 2026 or that the kuomintang will create a "ko chien-en miracle."

interpretation of the blue-green basics

the kuomintang has no reason to be optimistic

elections still need to return to the basics. looking at the recent kaohsiung mayoral elections, in 2014, chen ju won 68.08% of the votes and 990,000 votes, defeating yang qiuxing, who was then known as the "little giant of the south". in 2018, han guoyu swept kaohsiung with the "korean wave" and defeated chen qimai with 53.86% of the votes and 890,000 votes, defeating chen qimai with 44.79% and 740,000 votes, which can be called a special case. but in 2020, han was recalled by 930,000 votes, 40,000 more than the number of votes he received when he was elected; in august of the same year, in the kaohsiung mayoral by-election, chen qimai won 670,000 votes with a high vote rate of 70.03%, defeating li meizhen of the kuomintang. chen qimai, the dpp mayor of kaohsiung who is seeking re-election in 2022, won 58.1% of the votes and 766,000 votes, defeating ke zhien.

▲ko chien-en and han kuo-yu

the biggest reason for the miracle in 2018 was of course han kuo-yu's personal qualities and charm. his down-to-earth work at the grassroots and his popular election slogans, coupled with the changing public opinion, cracks in the dpp primary election and carelessness, ultimately overturned the dpp's stronghold.

the problem is,does ke zhien have the same strong aura and personal charm as han kuo-yu? no.moreover, chen chi-mai will certainly do his best to escort the next mayoral candidate to the polls, in order to gain leverage for himself to move to a higher level.the kuomintang has no reason to be optimistic.

want to create the "ko chien miracle"

three prerequisites are indispensable

in such a strong democratic progressive party stronghold, three major prerequisites are indispensable if one wants to create the "ko chien miracle" in 2026.

01

ko chien-en continues to perform his duties in the public opinion institutions conscientiously and accumulates strength at the grassroots level in kaohsiung. the kuomintang has increased its resource investment and moved voters with sincere service.strengthen the atmosphere of change among kaohsiung residents.ko chien-en is eloquent, has an academic background, a fresh image, and a southern background. he serves as a non-district legislator and is also the chairman of the kuomintang kaohsiung party committee, but he still needs to work hard.

02

han kuo-yu’s blessing.although han kuo-yu was recalled in kaohsiung, he still has many supporters in taiwan, including in kaohsiung, and is currently the head of a legislative body and maintains high popularity. if he continues to empower ko chien-en, including helping him with organizational mobilization, election skills, and packaging, then as the "political animal" chen shui-bian warned, if han kuo-yu joins the 2026 election campaign, kaohsiung and tainan will definitely be the first to bear the brunt.

03

"blue and white" must unite in the 2026 election.it is generally believed that the people's party has about 15%-20% support in kaohsiung. under the situation where ko wen-je is being hunted by the democratic progressive party, the people's party supporters are bound to counterattack in 2026. if the kuomintang can strive for a "blue and white coalition", it will undoubtedly be a booster for ko chien's election situation.