the solid-state battery race is crowded with frontrunners
2024-09-14
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liu xiaolin, reporter of economic observer how many years will it take to achieve mass production? this normalized question in the field of new energy vehicles has recently been thrown at the ultimate form of vehicle-mounted power batteries - solid-state batteries. at the beginning of the year, after ouyang minggao, an academician of the chinese academy of sciences and a professor at tsinghua university, issued a risk warning that "all-solid-state batteries are a threat and challenge we face, and china's battery industry advantages may be overturned by the united states, japan, south korea and other countries taking the lead in mass production of all-solid-state batteries", the mass production schedule of solid-state batteries has become the most concerned information in the new energy field, and the entire chinese battery industry has also shown a trend of racing against time to put solid-state batteries into production first.
in the five months from april to september, chinese companies have continuously released news on the r&d results and mass production time of solid-state batteries, bringing forward the commercialization competition that was supposed to start in 2027. although ouyang minggao recently reiterated that the commercialization of solid-state batteries will take time and large-scale mass production will take at least 5 years, the timetables given by battery manufacturers and car companies show that it will not take that long and cannot wait that long.
in may, saic announced that it had entered the 500-day countdown for the mass production of all-solid-state batteries, and all-solid-state batteries will be mass-produced and installed in vehicles in 2026, which has become the earliest timetable for mass production of solid-state batteries. as a leader in batteries, catl's attitude towards the development of all-solid-state batteries has also changed from keeping silent to actively revealing that "small-scale production will be achieved in 2027". at the end of august, penghui energy, a non-leading battery company, released all-solid-state battery products. the phrase "major breakthrough in all-solid-state batteries" drove the stock price to two consecutive "20cm daily limits". at the beginning of september, weilan new energy announced that "sulfide (all-solid-state) batteries will have sales this year", which excited experts. in the field of battery materials, many companies announced that the different solid-state electrolytes (the core part of solid-state batteries) they developed have completed pilot production and achieved small-scale supply. at the power battery conference on september 1, solid-state batteries became the protagonist for the first time and sparked discussion, and the pursuit from the capital market made the topic hotter...
stimulated by the "rush" of chinese companies, japanese companies have been postponing the mass production of solid-state batteries. recently, toyota has taken the lead in giving the latest pace of mass production in 2026. european and american scientific research teams and battery material suppliers have also been reporting the latest progress in the research and development of solid-state batteries. overseas companies are looking forward to seizing the opportunity to use solid-state batteries as a watershed to reverse the global competition landscape of new energy vehicles. all information shows that the distance from the laboratory to the production line of solid-state batteries is getting shorter and shorter.
however, the technology that china uses to get ahead is not the most technologically disruptive all-solid-state battery, but a "semi-solid-state battery" as a transitional technology. since the beginning of this year, many car companies such as saic, nio, and gac have installed semi-solid-state batteries on new cars and promoted them as selling points. but the difference of one word indicates that chinese batteries have not yet escaped the risk of being disrupted by all-solid-state technology. "indeed, china's strength lies in the speed of industrialization," said han liang (pseudonym), a senior executive of a domestic battery company. avoid the shortcomings of basic material research, use the huge market and industrial chain to achieve industrialization as soon as possible, and realize technological iteration and upgrading in industrialization-this is china's strategy for getting ahead in solid-state batteries.
on the other hand, the countdown to the mass production of all-solid-state batteries in three years has already started. the commercial value of semi-solid mass production, the rationality of investment efficiency, and how to overcome the technical difficulties of all-solid-state batteries are all unavoidable risks. more importantly, the reconstruction of china's huge battery industry chain brought about by solid-state batteries and the internal subversion of the industry level, such as the future of liquid batteries, also require quick solutions.
countdown to mass production
solid-state batteries, as the name implies, are batteries that use solid electrolytes. traditional liquid lithium batteries are mainly composed of four key elements: positive electrode, negative electrode, electrolyte and diaphragm. solid-state batteries replace the liquid electrolyte and diaphragm in traditional liquid lithium batteries with solid electrolytes, and use new positive and negative electrode materials. the application of new materials and new technologies will enable solid-state batteries to have high safety, high energy density, faster charging and discharging speeds, and high adaptability to temperature in a smaller volume. among them, the advantage of greatly reducing the risk of battery leakage and explosion alone is enough to rewrite the value of new energy vehicles.
therefore, solid-state batteries have become the recognized first choice for the next generation of batteries. japan, south korea, europe and the united states have all placed the development of solid-state batteries at the height of their national industrial strategies. among them, represented by companies such as toyota and panasonic, japan began to develop solid-state batteries as early as thirty years ago. south korean batteries also cooperated with european and american companies and invested in solid-state battery research and development early. china started the research and development of solid-state batteries ten years ago. although china's number of solid-state battery patent applications has increased rapidly in the past five years, it still lags behind japan and south korea in the total number of patents.
"the mass production of solid-state batteries, especially all-solid-state batteries, is related to the competition for technological dominance." li zheng, co-founder and general manager of qingtao energy, said that whoever produces first will determine who will have the technological dominance in the next stage of competition in new energy vehicles. in other words, whether china, which accounts for 60% of global power battery shipments, can continue to maintain its competitive advantage in the field of new energy vehicles is closely related to the commercialization speed, technological strength, and maturity of the industrial chain of solid-state batteries.
this sense of crisis is also the main reason why china's solid-state batteries have taken a head start this year. whether it is research institutions, battery industry chain companies or vehicle manufacturers, they have chosen to use the market instead of the laboratory, using semi-solid-state batteries to take the lead in mass production to seize the position in the new track and take the first step towards the industrialization of all-solid-state batteries.
in may this year, at the saic group's new energy ten years achievement exhibition, saic's solid-state battery company qingtao energy became the protagonist. qingtao not only announced that it would deliver the first-generation lightyear edition semi-solid-state batteries to zhiji l6 in batches this year, but also announced that its solid-state products will be widely installed in saic's own-brand pure electric and hybrid models starting in 2025, and all-solid-state batteries will be officially mass-produced in 2026. this is the fastest mass production speed of all-solid-state batteries in china so far.
according to the gradual decrease in the content of liquid electrolyte, the development path of solid-state batteries can be roughly divided into semi-solid (5-10wt%), quasi-solid (0-5wt%), and fully solid (0wt%) stages. the electrolytes used in semi-solid and quasi-solid are mixed solid-liquid electrolytes. according to the plan, the mass production of saic's solid-state batteries will be divided into three steps. in the first stage, the liquid content in the electrolyte will be reduced to 19%; in the second stage, it will be reduced to 5%; in the third stage, it will be reduced to only 1%.
saic's industrialization idea is: with the help of the gradual mass production of solid-state battery technology in the first two stages, relying on the huge industrial scale of saic group, cultivate new upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, especially upstream suppliers of key materials, core equipment, etc., and combine with the opportunity of saic group's independent brand to develop solid-state battery technology on a large scale, to achieve the upgrade of the entire industrial chain, and then realize the mass production of all-solid-state batteries.
this is also the idea of most vehicle manufacturers. so far, mainstream vehicle manufacturers, as well as battery manufacturers represented by catl, farasis energy, guoxuan high-tech, and xinwoda, and lithium battery material manufacturers represented by tianqi lithium, eve energy, ganfeng lithium, and prologic technology have announced the pace of product launch related to solid-state batteries. in addition, the mass production pace of solid-state battery startups such as tailan, weilan, and qingtao has also attracted much attention.
achieving full solid-state in steps is also a common route for domestic battery manufacturers. an insider of farasis energy said that farasis energy will complete the productization from semi-solid-state batteries to solid-state power batteries within the next 5 to 10 years, during which time it will undergo three technological upgrades. among them, the first generation of soft-pack semi-solid-state batteries has been mass-produced in 2021, and then farasis energy will launch the second and third generation upgraded products of semi-solid-state batteries, gradually reducing the content of liquid electrolytes, improving the intrinsic safety of battery cells, and finally introducing full solid-state batteries.
semi-solid-state batteries: semi-finished products or the inevitable path
however, judging from the general forecast that all-solid-state batteries will be put into small-scale production in 2027, the business cycle of semi-solid-state batteries seems to be only three years. in such a short application cycle, is the commercial value of semi-solid-state batteries high?
in fact, the rationality of mass production of semi-solid-state battery technology is not without controversy in the industry. from the performance point of view, the biggest feature of semi-solid-state batteries is that the electrolyte has a certain liquid ratio and is not completely solid. compared with liquid power batteries, semi-solid-state batteries will have better performance in terms of cruising range and cost performance, and will also have improved puncture ability and cycle life. taking the saic qingtao light year edition semi-solid-state battery as an example, it has an energy density of more than 300wh/kg (the current energy density of liquid power batteries is between 100wh/kg-250wh/kg), a cruising range of more than 1,000 kilometers, and can be charged to 400 kilometers in 12 minutes. the most important thing is that semi-solid-state batteries currently generally choose the polymer route, which can make the most of existing battery production processes and equipment, and the production difficulty and cost are within a controllable range.
professionals believe that the mass production of semi-solid batteries is due to the fact that the performance of existing liquid lithium-ion batteries has reached its upper limit. han liang said: "lithium-ion battery technology is far from mature. it is only under the combined effect of macroeconomic policies, national strategies, environmental crises, market expectations and other factors that a huge industry has been formed." in his opinion, there is indeed a potential contradiction between liquid lithium-ion and semi-solid batteries.
han liang prefers to regard semi-solid state as an improvement of current liquid state batteries. "in terms of the technical route to achieve this, semi-solid state and full solid state are essentially two different paths. to give an example that may not be appropriate, semi-solid state is like an assisted driving that is infinitely close to l3, but it is fundamentally different from l3 intelligent driving."
according to data from the china automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, the domestic semi-solid battery installation volume reached 1,621.8mwh in the first five months of 2024. the industry calls 2024 the eve of large-scale mass production of semi-solid batteries, and predicts that global solid-state battery shipments will reach 38gwh and 509gwh in 2025 and 2030, respectively.
li zheng said that in terms of battery technology, the gap between global companies is not large, and they are at the same technological stage. the advantages of chinese power batteries are mainly reflected in the scale of use and market share.
disruption: difficult-to-break technical barriers
"ten years ago, japan, the united states, europe and south korea began to promote the mass production of solid-state batteries, but it was extremely difficult." in li zheng's view, due to changes in core materials, the evolution from traditional batteries to solid-state batteries faces the challenge of technological and industrial transformation.
based on this, ouyang minggao gave the following timetable for the commercialization of solid-state batteries: it is expected that the industrialization of semi-solid-state batteries will be implemented in 2024, all-solid-state battery products will be offline in 2027, and solid-state batteries will be fully put into production in 2030, with an output value of over 100 billion yuan. zeng yuqun, chairman of catl, gave the exact progress of catl: if the technical maturity of solid-state batteries is evaluated by numbers from 1 to 9, catl is currently at level 4, and has only made some device samples and conducted some experimental verifications.
"first solve the electrolyte problem, then solve the negative electrode problem, and then solve the positive electrode problem. don't be impatient." at the "2024 world power battery conference high-end dialogue", ouyang minggao emphasized that there are still many technical difficulties that solid-state batteries need to overcome, and they need to be done step by step, and cannot blindly pursue speed.
sun xueliang, a foreign academician of the chinese academy of engineering, also said that solid-state battery technology still faces many challenges. among them, electrolytes have multiple technical routes such as sulfides, oxides, and polymers. it is better to use composite materials or develop new electrolytes. these problems need to be solved.
the biggest challenge is to change the electrolyte from "liquid" to "solid". from successfully developing a sample in the laboratory to mass-producing solid-state batteries that meet performance standards on the production line and can be installed in vehicles, the challenges are equally huge.
according to the different electrolytes, solid-state battery technology routes are mainly divided into three categories, namely polymer solid-state batteries, oxide solid-state batteries and sulfide solid-state batteries. there is currently no unified understanding in the world on which technology route is more suitable as the mainstream technology of solid-state batteries.
specifically, japanese automakers such as toyota, honda, and nissan and korean battery companies such as lg, samsung, and ski have all adopted the sulfide technology route. this route is difficult to mass-produce, which led toyota to postpone the original mass production time to 2030. american start-up technology companies are the main partners of german vehicle companies, and they have layouts in sulfides, oxides, and polymers. south korea is also developing oxide and sulfide technologies in parallel. chinese companies are also exploring multiple routes.
in terms of positive electrode materials, solid-state batteries also have a variety of choices. from an industrial perspective, the current positive electrode mainly includes high-voltage high-nickel ternary, lithium-rich manganese-based, ultra-high nickel ternary, lithium nickel manganese oxide and other materials, while the negative electrode materials are mainly silicon-based and lithium metal. while the diversified materials have broadened the selectivity of solid-state batteries, they have also brought uncertainty to r&d costs and cycles.
to this end, ouyang minggao specifically pointed out that ai technology will play an important role in the development of solid-state batteries. "the efficiency of ai large-scale model screening is indeed much higher. it can screen out formulas with relatively high feasibility for experimental verification, reducing detours in the development process." han liang said that the us r&d center is already using ai technology, "but the entire ai technology is still in its infancy. the model itself is not fed with enough data and is not mature yet. it will take some time before it can be truly applied."
in addition to materials, solid-state batteries also face new challenges in production processes. the preparation of oxide electrolytes requires a high temperature of more than 900°c, while the preparation of sulfide electrolytes requires that the assembly environment must be kept below -60°c. zeng yuqun said that although catl has made some device samples, "the use of these devices has many boundary conditions, such as achieving high low-temperature performance at 6,000 atmospheres. this means that these devices cannot yet be put into market application."
"the industrialization of all-solid-state batteries is extremely difficult. it not only requires breakthroughs in material science problems, but also process equipment innovation and the cultivation of a completely new industrial chain," said li zheng. solid-state batteries require the establishment of a completely new industrial chain, including the application of solid-state electrolyte materials, the reconstruction of a completely new positive and negative electrode material industry, and the new development and investment in battery production processes and equipment.
cost is another bottleneck for the mass production of solid-state batteries. the negative electrode material used in solid-state batteries is metallic lithium, which is much more expensive than graphite. at present, the manufacturing cost of all-solid-state batteries is 4-25 times that of lithium-ion batteries.
overall, there are bottlenecks in the entire process of solid-state batteries moving from the laboratory to the production line, including material research and development, production process, and cost. "we will strive to start industrialization in 2027, and apply it on a small scale in some emerging fields that are not sensitive to cost. the first application may not necessarily be cars, but may also be low-altitude aircraft," han liang said.
information from the enterprise side shows that the industrialization bottleneck of all-solid-state batteries is a problem that must be solved before mass production. according to information disclosed by saic qingtao, based on the simplification and innovation of materials and processes, the unit cost of all-solid-state batteries developed by saic qingtao can be reduced by up to 40% from the cell end to the pack end, which will have a very obvious cost advantage over liquid batteries.
zhang jinhui, a researcher at xinrong information, reminded that there will be a big gap between laboratory samples and truly large-scale mass-produced products, and the yield rate and stability will be a major challenge after the mass production of solid-state batteries.
it is worth mentioning that from the perspective of the battery industry, if liquid power batteries withdraw from the mainstream technology, the investment structure in the battery industry chain will also change.
in this regard, ouyang minggao said, "for the chinese battery industry, since the existing industrial chain based on liquid batteries is already quite large and mature, the layout of all-solid-state batteries requires sufficient consensus."
technological revolution is always the biggest driving force for new industrial revolution and brand-new business models. however, behind every disruptive technological revolution, a mature industrial chain will also face disruption. the disruption of the internal combustion engine industry chain by new energy vehicles is a typical example. it can be foreseen that in the next 5-10 years, with the mass production of solid-state batteries, the reconstruction of the existing power battery industry chain will gradually emerge.
(source: economic observer)
