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good weekend everyone, let’s take a quick look at the news from overseas!

russia suddenly raises interest rates by 100 basis points

tonight, russia's central bank continued to tighten monetary policy after the country's overheated economy showed signs of possibly slowing.

russia's central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 19% on friday and left open the possibility of further hikes at its october meeting.

the russian central bank said in a statement: "current inflationary pressures remain high. in order to restore the process of inflation decline, reduce inflation expectations, and ensure that inflation returns to the target level in 2025, further tightening of monetary policy is necessary."

policymakers have indicated they are serious about raising rates again amid persistent price increases, which the central bank has struggled to curb. although annualized inflation eased slightly to 9.05% in august from 9.13% in july, it remains well above the official 4% target.

"we are sure that inflation will slow down, but the monetary policy tightening achieved so far is not enough to bring inflation back to target next year," said elvira nabiullina, governor of the russian central bank, after the policy meeting.

the russian central bank predicts that russia's annual inflation rate will drop to 4%~4.5% in 2025 and remain at around 4% in the future.

on july 21 last year, the russian central bank announced that it would raise the benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 8.5%. this is the first time the russian central bank has raised the benchmark interest rate since september 2022. in the following months, the russian central bank raised the benchmark interest rate several times. on december 15 last year, the russian central bank raised the benchmark interest rate to 16%. on july 26 this year, the russian central bank raised the benchmark interest rate from 16% to 18%.

the russian central bank said that the growth of domestic demand in russia still far exceeds the ability of goods and services to supply. in order to reduce inflation expectations and ensure that the inflation rate returns to the target level in 2025, the russian central bank needs to take additional monetary tightening measures. the russian central bank does not rule out the possibility of further raising key interest rates.

analysts say that the russian central bank's interest rate hike to 19% will help accelerate inflation back to 4%, even if it increases the risk of recession. the central bank needs to rebuild its credibility after failing to achieve its inflation target for several consecutive years, but this is a gradual, long-term process that cannot be solved by a single rate hike. in the long run, the russian central bank is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at its meeting on october 25.

at its july meeting, the central bank of russia raised borrowing costs by 200 basis points as governor elvira nabiullina warned at the time of the risk of stagflation, where high prices coexist with low economic growth, as the country’s war-driven economy appeared to reach the limits of its carrying capacity.

retail demand, driven by heavy government spending, has also begun to slow - a sign that russia's war-driven economy may be starting to cool.

since then, policymakers have moderated their hawkish tone, talking instead of "gradually reducing economic overheating" and "a retreat in inflationary trends." a recent central bank report also noted that domestic demand has leveled off amid a slowdown in retail lending and household consumption. that will prompt companies to scale back production plans, helping to ease tight labor markets.

u.s. stocks rise, gold hits new high

tonight, the three major u.s. stock indexes rose, with the dow jones industrial average rising more than 400 points and the nasdaq rising more than 0.5%.

on the news front, the u.s. consumer confidence index rose to a four-month high in early september.

preliminary data released by the university of michigan on friday showed that its consumer confidence index rose to 69 from 67.9 in august, while the median forecast of economists surveyed was 68.5.

consumers expect inflation to be 2.7% over the next year, down from 2.8% a month ago, marking the fourth straight month of declines in short-term inflation expectations. they forecast annualized inflation of 3.1% over the next five to 10 years, up from 3% a month ago.

in addition, gold prices continue to hit new highs. citi analysts said that driven by the monetary easing policies of major central banks and the tense situation of the us presidential election, gold prices are expected to stand above $3,000 next year.

akash doshi, head of north american commodities at citi research, said that driven by u.s. interest rate cuts, strong demand for gold etfs and over-the-counter physical demand,gold prices could reach $2,600 an ounce by the end of 2024 and $3,000 by mid-2025.