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is the ai ​​boom coming back? s&p global: nvidia's stock price can rise for at least another year

2024-09-14

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nvidia shares have slumped since late august amid concerns about demand and regulatory prospects for the company, but this week the stock rebounded along with other tech giants including oracle and advanced micro devices.

on friday, eastern time, andrew chang, technical director of s&p global ratings, said in an interview that nvidia's stock price still has a lot of room to rise and will continue to soar for at least another year.

nvidia stock price year-to-date performance

nvidia's demand will continue to be strong

andrew mentioned huang renxun's recent remarks. recently, huang renxun made a "versailles"-style statement at the goldman sachs conference in san francisco, saying that customer demand for nvidia's latest generation of blackwell chips was strong, even annoying some customers and causing tensions:

"the demand is so high, everyone wants to be the first to get it, everyone wants to order the most, our customers are quite excited, which is understandable, it is indeed very tense, and we are trying our best to do the best."

this speech triggered a sharp rise in nvidia's stock price and even led to a rebound in the u.s. technology sector.

andrew zhang believes that huang's comments support the prediction of continued upside for nvidia: "this confirms our view thatat least over the next 12 months, (nvidia’s stock price) will continue to have strong momentum.”

in addition, nvidia's partners are also showing signs of strong chip demand. software giant oracle, which has an ongoing partnership with nvidia, raised its revenue forecast after beating first-quarter earnings expectations. oracle also doubled its planned capital expenditures for the current fiscal year, which are all positive signs for nvidia.

“all of these are good data points and things are looking good for at least the next 12 to 18 months,” andrew said.

there are still concerns

still, andrew acknowledged that investors have been expressing some concerns. some worry that nvidia's growth is unsustainable, especially considering the stock has risen 2,514% over the past five years.

nvidia's stock price trend over the past five years

other analysts warn that demand for nvidia’s chips may not remain strong in the coming years because the company’s largest customers could end up becoming competitors — apple and microsoft, two of nvidia’s largest gpu customers, are also reportedly developing their own artificial intelligence chips.

“ultimately, if oracle, microsoft and amazon don’t see the roi that they expect, they’re going to order less. so the volatility in demand from the hyperscalers is something that we really worry about… but, you know, these data center players have been known to order a bunch and then pause for a few quarters. that’s what we’re watching for.”

in addition to the demand side, investors also need to pay attention to the government's tightening regulation of artificial intelligence. according to bloomberg, nvidia has recently become the target of a new round of antitrust investigations by the u.s. department of justice, and it may only be "a matter of time" for other countries to follow the u.s. regulatory measures.

still, wall street is generally bullish on nvidia. according to nasdaq, analysts have an average price target of $153 per share, which would represent a 29% upside from current levels.