gold prices are rising again! can you follow them now?
2024-09-14
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gold prices have risen again. on september 13, wind data showed that the london spot gold price once again broke through the 2,560 us dollar/ounce mark after breaking through the new high of 2,550 us dollars/ounce overnight, and once rose to 2,568.03 us dollars/ounce.
if you buy gold now, can you still catch up with this "wealth express"?
why is gold rising this time?
wan zhe, phd supervisor and economist at beijing normal universityin an interview with china news service's national affairs express, he said that in the short term, the rise in gold prices was related to data such as the ppi and the number of initial unemployment benefit applications recently released by the united states.
data showed that the year-on-year growth rate of ppi in the united states in august was 1.7%, a significant decline from the previous value of 2.2%. the core ppi in the united states in august rose by 2.4% year-on-year, compared with the previous value of 2.40%; it rose by 0.3% month-on-month, and the previous value was revised from 0% to -0.2%.
according to u.s. employment data, the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits increased by 230,000 in the week ending september 6, higher than the revised 228,000 in the previous week, which was in line with expectations.
wan zhe said that in the medium term, the second rate cut by the european central bank shows that there is still uncertainty in the economic development prospects of developed countries to a certain extent. the fed's rate cut is almost a foregone conclusion, but the timing and magnitude of the rate cut are still uncertain. investors are worried about the market, and risk aversion has pushed up gold prices;
in addition, the increase in gold holdings by central banks of various countries, especially those of some major countries, has also pushed up gold prices to a certain extent.
economist pan helinin an interview with china news service's national affairs express, he said that the current rise in gold prices was to a certain extent an early release of the positive news of the federal reserve's interest rate cut in september, and the rise in gold prices corresponded to the expectation of a weakening of the us dollar under loose monetary policy.
where will the price of gold go?
wan zhe believes that in the foreseeable future, the trend of gold prices fluctuating at high levels will not change much in principle. there are three points worth noting:
1. the uncertainty in the global economic outlook has led to an increase in investors’ risk aversion;
second, the risk of international geopolitical escalation remains;
3. 2024 is a "super election year", and many countries, including the united states, are experiencing general elections. the election results will affect the direction of economic policies, and this uncertainty is also one of the factors supporting the high price of gold.
pan helin believes that the driving force behind the rise in gold prices mainly comes from consumer demand and investment demand. at present, consumer demand has not seen significant improvement, and investment demand is the dominant force behind the rise in gold prices. in other words, the rise in gold prices is a process of self-reinforcement and a trend.
can we follow this wave of gold prices?
if we buy gold now, can we still catch the tail of the rising gold prices?
lu weijia, trading director of heraeus precious metals chinait is believed that although the demand for jewelry is suppressed by high prices, the continued geopolitical conflicts, the renewed attention of overseas investors to gold, and the upcoming interest rate cut by the federal reserve all provide some support for gold prices. the gold price is expected to fluctuate between $2,500 and $2,600 per ounce in the short term.
"the us dollar and 10-year us treasury yields fell overnight, and the precious metals sector rose sharply. against the backdrop of interest rate cuts, the precious metals sector is expected to maintain its upward momentum," said an analysis by hongye futures.
citic futures also believes that there is a high probability that the federal reserve will eventually cut interest rates at this month's interest rate meeting, which will once again boost precious metal prices.
