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2700-point defense battle! how will the a-share market perform in the future? the latest analysis of securities firms

2024-09-13

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today, a-shares continued to fall slightly, with the shanghai composite index hitting a new low and approaching the 2,700-point mark; the shenzhen component index fell below 8,000 points, hitting its lowest closing point in more than seven months; important stock indices such as the shanghai 50 and csi 300 also hit new lows. more than 4,000 stocks in the two markets fell, with a turnover of 528.5 billion yuan.

on the market, sectors such as state-owned enterprise reform, real estate, communications equipment, and insurance were relatively active, while sectors such as public transportation, high-voltage fast charging, solid-state batteries, and brewing had the largest declines.

wind real-time monitoring data shows that the non-bank financial industry received a net inflow of nearly 2.3 billion yuan, communications received a net inflow of more than 1.5 billion yuan, and real estate, public utilities, construction and decoration, electronics and other industries also received a net inflow of more than 100 million yuan. the main funds of the non-ferrous metals and power equipment industries both had a net outflow of more than 1 billion yuan, and the food and beverage, transportation and other industries also had a net outflow of more than 100 million yuan.

looking ahead to the future market, bohai securities pointed out that the market is still in the bottoming stage and confidence is facing a rebuilding process. with the start of the overseas interest rate cut process and the issuance of the domestic csi a500 fund, the market liquidity environment will usher in a process of improvement. if domestic policies further exert their strength on the demand side, the market will have the conditions for a bottom rebound, and there is even the possibility of a rebound turning into a reversal. the key points to focus on: 1. thematic investment opportunities in the tmt sector under the catalysis of ai models; 2. policy game opportunities in the home appliance and social service industries under the expectation of incremental policies.

jianghai securities believes that the fed may cut interest rates as early as september, which will help open up room for domestic monetary policy and reduce the pressure of rmb depreciation; and the us stock market is in a relatively high uncertainty stage, which may bring indirect benefits to a-shares. the market has a basis for rebound, and the market is expected to gradually enter a new stage of stabilization and rebound in the next period of september.

in terms of hot spots, state-owned enterprise stocks saw a surge in daily limit prices amid a weak market. zhongda'an's stock price rose by 20% in just about 10 minutes after opening, and its share price hit a five-month high. hainan haiyao, tianfeng securities, datang telecom, and hongye futures also rose by the daily limit or more than 10%.

today, the general department of system reform of the national development and reform commission issued a notice, emphasizing that it will deepen the reform of state-owned enterprises, promote the original innovation system arrangement, and the reform of state-owned capital investment and operation companies. this move is aimed at promoting the common development of different ownership economies, stimulating the vitality of business entities, and promoting the complementarity of economic advantages.

the national development and reform commission made it clear in the notice that it will promote the optimization of the layout and structural adjustment of the state-owned economy, formulate relevant guidance catalogues, and guide state-owned enterprises to strengthen key functions such as strategic security, industrial leadership, national economy and people's livelihood, and public services. at the same time, it will formulate a law to promote the private economy to ensure that state-owned enterprises and private enterprises are treated equally in terms of system and law, improve the long-term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in the construction of major national projects, and support capable private enterprises to undertake major national technological research tasks. these measures will help improve the modern enterprise system with chinese characteristics and accelerate the construction of more world-class enterprises.

guosheng securities said that listed central enterprises are the focus of the new round of state-owned enterprise reform, which is expected to resonate with market value management and jointly promote the return of central enterprises' value. investment opportunities can be focused on central enterprises in technological innovation and strategic emerging industries, and central enterprise groups with low asset securitization rates.

real estate stocks also bucked the trend as the external interest rate cuts led to the rise in expectations of domestic interest rate cuts, and the sector index opened higher and continued to rise. electronic city opened with a daily limit, while airport shares rose vertically in just about 10 minutes, which was also its second consecutive daily limit. china communications construction real estate and hitech development also quickly closed the board.

liquor stocks continued to plummet, with the sector index opening low and falling, with a large volume drop of 2.49%, hitting a new low in more than four years. yanshi shares fell to the limit for the second consecutive day, hitting a new low in five and a half years; kweichow moutai once fell below 1,300 yuan during the session, hitting a new low since may 2020; wuliangye fell more than 3%, closing with a bare head and bare feet middle yin line, hitting a new low in four and a half years; jinshiyuan, gujing gongjiu and others have hit multi-year lows.