news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

be a brave man in life, march forward firmly, and every day is a brand new beginning. good morning, everyone!

today we are going to talk about moutai~

“the price can't go back, never again."in a tobacco and alcohol retail store in licheng district, jinan, the owner complained, "two days ago, a brand distributor released 300 boxes of goods to one store. there are about 100 to 200 stores of this brand in jinan."

the boss said that the original box of moutai in his store is sold at 2,600 yuan per bottle, which is 200 yuan lower than the market price of 2,800 yuan per bottle half a month ago. "it is actually a normal release before the festival, but this year is different from previous years.sales are not good this year. there are too many products but little demand. so the price cannot go up.。”

the mid-autumn festival and national day are approaching, which should be the peak season for liquor consumption, but this year seems to be a little different. take feitian moutai, a benchmark liquor brand, for example, its wholesale price has been falling. today's liquor price and other quotation platforms show that on september 4, the original box wholesale price of 2024 feitian moutai was 2,660 yuan/bottle;on september 12, the wholesale price of feitian moutai in original boxes was 2,550 yuan per bottle, down 30 yuan/bottle from september 11.at the beginning of september 2023, the market wholesale price of feitian moutai in original boxes and loose bottles was about 3,000 yuan/bottle and 2,700 yuan/bottle。

many liquor industry analysts believe that as the supply of famous liquors continues to increase, their scarcity will also decrease. if the industry demand growth lags behind, product price pressure will further increase.

△moutai liquor price change table on september 12.（the picture comes from the wechat official account of today's wine price）

the recent decline in feitian moutai prices is related to increased market supply and lower-than-expected demand. some retailers mainly obtain moutai supplies through moutai distributors, who also increased market supply during the holidays, but due to demand issues, the market price of feitian moutai "failed to catch up".

during the dragon boat festival this year, the price of moutai continued to fall. at that time, the wholesale price of loose feitian moutai fell from 2,500 yuan/bottle to 2,100 yuan/bottle. moutai management immediately took a series of measures to control supply and prices, including reducing the proportion of payment and stopping the delivery of large boxes of products, to "save" the market and gradually restore wholesale prices.

the lower-than-expected consumption of alcohol during the peak season also caused market concerns.on september 12, the liquor sector fluctuated and fell, with kweichow moutai falling more than 3%, and its share price hitting a new low since november 2022. gujing gongjiu, luzhou laojiao, and shanxi fenjiu followed suit, with a drop of more than 3%.。

kweichow moutai's stock price has continued to fall this year.as of the close of september 12, kweichow moutai has fallen by more than 21%, and is getting further and further away from its former position as the king of a-shares.。

in terms of news, domestic wine merchants in many places reported that sales were "not very good" and "this year is the slowest in recent years." a person from the wine circulation association also revealed that this year's mid-autumn festival sales are expected to drop by 20%-30% year-on-year. donghai securities believes thatthe current valuation of the liquor sector is close to the low point at the end of 2018, the dividend rate of the leading liquor companies has a tendency to increase. competition in the liquor industry has intensified, and the differentiation of sales driven by different prices has continued. the market share of the leading liquor companies has continued to increase and their performance has a strong certainty. in the context of the industry still facing great pressure, it is recommended to pay attention to high-end liquor and regional leaders.

in addition, the liquor market is increasingly pursuing cost-effectiveness and quality-price ratio. according to the "2024 china liquor market mid-term research report" released by the china alcoholic drinks association, in the first half of 2024, liquor market distributors and retailers reported that the top three price ranges with the best market sales were 300-500 yuan, 100-300 yuan, and 100 yuan and below; the top three price ranges with the highest degree of inversion were 800-1,500 yuan, 500-800 yuan, and 300-500 yuan.

on the one hand, sales are sluggish, and on the other hand, inventory is high. according to the data from oriental fortune choice, the total inventory of 21 liquor companies listed in the a-share and h-share markets in the first half of this year increased by 10.29% year-on-year to 157.47 billion yuan.the inventory of liquor companies such as kweichow moutai, yanghe shares, wuliangye, luzhou laojiao, and shanxi fenjiu all exceeded 10 billion yuan., and another 8 wine companies have inventories between 3 billion and 8 billion yuan.

in response to investors' questions about the price fluctuations of moutai liquor at the terminal, zhang deqin, chairman of kweichow moutai, said at the 2024 semi-annual performance briefing that moutai attaches great importance to market conditions. the company has conducted in-depth market research in various provinces, held market work meetings in various provinces and regions, and held in-depth discussions with distributors, e-commerce, group purchases, provincial and regional self-operated and other channel representatives to continuously improve the strategic and tactical system that is both systematic and coordinated. the overall market situation is relatively stable. regarding the company's full-year development,zhang deqin also specifically stated that efforts will be made to ensure that the annual 15% growth target in total operating income is achieved as scheduled.. calculated based on the total revenue of 150.56 billion yuan in 2023,the performance target that kweichow moutai needs to achieve in 2024 is about 173.144 billion yuan.in the first half of 2024, kweichow moutai's total revenue was 83.451 billion yuan, completing 48.19% of the annual target.

wang peng, an associate researcher at the beijing academy of social sciences, analyzed that the reasons for the price drop of moutai during the peak season are mainly changes in consumer behavior, changes in market supply and demand, and channel changes.it is suggested that major liquor brands can expand sales channels and attract consumers by strengthening brand building, focusing on product innovation, optimizing channel layout, carrying out promotional activities, and improving consumer experience.。

guotai junan securities said that it is urgent for enterprises to make choices about their business strategies.except for a few brands such as moutai, the companies that are less obsessed with price and product structure will have a competitive advantage in the future.enterprises need to establish their own share strategies according to local conditions and observe the strategic flexibility of the enterprises.

(note: the picture comes from tonghuashun, and this article does not constitute any investment advice)

today's topic: hotel and air ticket price reduction

thanks to the visa-free policy and the recovery of global flight capacity, hotel and air ticket prices both fell during this year's national day holiday. the resulting "super high" cost-effective holiday will drive the tourism market to a peak in the second half of the year. a large number of destinations may welcome visitors with "floor prices". data from third-party platforms show that air ticket prices in bijie, guizhou, yili, xinjiang, panzhihua, sichuan, kashgar, xinjiang, shangrao, jiangxi, etc. have fallen sharply compared with the same period last year.

where do you want to go during the national day holiday?

sourcechina business news wechat is compiled from china fund news, securities times, etc.

editor:li monan fu haowan

proofreading丨zhang bin

review丨peng tingting