this time, can the us military completely leave iraq?
2024-09-12
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the iraqi defense minister recently stated that iraq has reached an agreement with the united states on the phased withdrawal of multinational coalition forces from iraq, and an agreement may be signed in the near future. since 2020, iraq and the united states have been negotiating for a long time on the withdrawal of troops, but progress has been slow.
analysts believe that the withdrawal of the coalition forces will help iraq strengthen its autonomy and stability, but the united states may not easily give up its interests in iraq. the struggle between the united states and iran and the direction of the situation in the middle east may have an impact on the withdrawal of the coalition forces.
iraqi defense minister sabit abbasi said that iraq has reached an agreement with the united states that the us-led multinational coalition will withdraw from military bases in the iraqi capital baghdad and other areas under the jurisdiction of the central government before september 2025, and the troops stationed in the kurdish autonomous region in northern iraq will withdraw before september 2026.
abbasi said iraq and the united states may "sign an agreement in the next few days." he also said that us defense secretary austin had said that "two years is not enough" to complete the withdrawal, "he proposed to add one more year, and we rejected it."
foreign media reported, citing iraqi officials, that the relationship between iraq and the multinational coalition will transition to a new stage, "focusing on developing bilateral relations in the military, security, economic and cultural fields." us officials said that the us and iraq may establish a new "advisory relationship."
the us-led coalition began to station troops in iraq in 2014. at that time, the extremist organization "islamic state" was conquering cities in iraq and syria, so the us-led international coalition against "islamic state" increased its troops in iraq. at the end of 2017, the iraqi government announced its victory in the fight against "islamic state", but the coalition still stayed in iraq for reasons such as counter-terrorism and training.
in january 2020, the us military launched an airstrike in baghdad, killing soleimani, commander of the quds force under the iranian islamic revolutionary guard corps, and abu mahdi al-muhandis, deputy commander of the popular mobilization force. this move caused dissatisfaction in iraq, and the iraqi national assembly passed a resolution to end the presence of foreign troops. under pressure, the united states announced in august 2020 that it would reduce the number of us troops in iraq from 5,200 to about 3,500.
in january 2022, the iraqi government announced that the international coalition's combat mission had ended and the iraqi military had taken over all military bases. however, the united states still maintains about 2,500 troops in iraq, and france and other countries also have hundreds of troops stationed in iraq.
after the outbreak of a new round of israeli-palestinian conflict in october 2023, some iraqi militias repeatedly attacked us military bases in iraq, and the us military launched air strikes on some iraqi military targets. as a result, calls for the withdrawal of us troops in iraq have risen again, and prime minister sudani has repeatedly issued "expulsion orders" to the us military. in january this year, iraq and the united states launched a dialogue between the high military committee to negotiate the withdrawal of multinational coalition forces from iraq.
some media analysis pointed out that the reason why iraq demanded the withdrawal of the us-led multinational coalition was, on the one hand, because the "islamic state" no longer posed a threat and the iraqi security forces were capable of controlling the situation; on the other hand, the us military's air strikes on targets in iraq caused casualties. the iraqi side believed that the presence and behavior of the us military had become a destabilizing factor in iraq, affecting iraq's reconstruction and development. iraq was unwilling to become a place of competition and conflict between hostile countries.
the reason why the united states agreed to negotiate the withdrawal of its troops with iraq is that the us military bases in iraq have been frequently attacked. negotiations can ease the pressure on the iraqi government and may also reduce the attacks on the us military.
however, judging from the phased withdrawal plan disclosed by the iraqi defense minister, it will take some time for the coalition to completely withdraw from iraq, and there is even the possibility that it will become a "blank check" again. the situation in the kurdish autonomous region in the north is particularly complicated. turkey has just launched an airstrike in northern iraq, and some kurds still hope that the us military will stay. some us officials said that the us may still retain a certain number of troops in iraq after the official withdrawal.
analysts believe that although the number of us troops stationed in iraq is small, it is a lever for the us to intervene in iraq and the middle east. on the 11th local time, iranian president pezhichyan visited iraq, which was his first visit since taking office. if the us wants to contain iran in the middle east, it is impossible for it to give up its intervention in iraq.
in addition, the united states' hasty withdrawal from afghanistan has become a reason for republicans to attack president biden. after the presidential election in november, the new us government may still add conditions or change its policy on the withdrawal issue.
since the united states launched the iraq war in 2003, the united states has been intervening in iraq for more than 20 years, and the us military has caused many tragic events in the country. now that the iraqi government has stabilized, the sudani government hopes to achieve independence and development. however, in addition to the us military, the united states also controls iraq in financial and other aspects. for iraq, it is still a long way to go to completely get rid of us intervention.
