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on september 11, lithium battery concepts rose strongly during the day. as of midday closing, jinguan shares, defu technology, lianchuang shares and others had a 20% daily limit. among them, jinguan shares had a 20cm daily limit for two consecutive days. nandu power rose nearly 16%. the "lithium king" tianqi lithium had a rare daily limit. yongshan lithium and jinyuan shares also had daily limits. defang nano rose more than 8%, and ganfeng lithium rose more than 7%.

in the futures market, the main contract of lithium carbonate once surged by more than 7% during the session, hitting its highest level in more than a week. as of press time, the increase narrowed to 5.85%.

guotai junan securities' latest research report states that:the release of capacity of new lithium carbonate projects has been temporarily suspended, and the lithium sector is expected to enter an upward cycle as early as 2026.among the projects under construction, the two expansion projects originally planned for sal de vida have been changed to be completed in sequence, and the construction has slowed down; the construction of the ppg salt lake project has not yet started, and the production process has been delayed; the construction of the galaxy project has been suspended. overall, the current supply side has shown signs of contraction, and the capital expenditure of the lithium mining industry has declined significantly, which is expected to suppress the new supply in the next 2-3 years.

from the demand side, guotai junan said,long-term demand for new energy will continue to grow at an annual rate of 15%-20%, among which the demand for energy storage lithium batteries is growing rapidly, which currently plays a major supporting role in the demand for lithium carbonate. high-cost mines have begun to reduce production one after another, and may even stop production as prices fall further. against the backdrop of continued high prosperity in the downstream industry, lithium carbonate prices are expected to usher in an upward cycle from 2026 to 2027, and the lithium sector usually starts to rise 6-9 months ahead of commodity prices.

in terms of industry, data released by the china association of automobile manufacturers showed that in august, my country's production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.092 million and 1.1 million respectively, up 29.6% and 30% year-on-year respectively. the sales of new energy vehicles reached 44.8% of the total new car sales.

dongguan securities pointed out that the traditional peak season for auto consumption is coming in september, and the recent trade-in policy has increased the subsidy standard for scrapping and updating passenger cars, which will further release the replacement demand in the stock market within the year, and the subsequent sales of new energy vehicles are expected to maintain a rapid growth trend. in terms of the industrial chain, the overall performance of the industry's mid-year report is still under pressure, but it has improved month-on-month. in the past two weeks, the overall price of the lithium battery industry chain has been relatively stable. as the terminal peak season approaches, pay attention to the improvement of production scheduling. in the medium term, under the guidance of industry regulations and the pressure of low prices, backward production capacity is expected to be cleared out faster, and the pace of new capacity expansion will slow down, which is beneficial to the improvement of high-quality production capacity utilization.it is recommended to pay attention to the leading companies in the materials segment that have marginal improvements in the battery segment with strong fundamentals, as well as the incremental demand in the industrial chain driven by new battery technologies.