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the medical sector is undoubtedly the biggest highlight of a-shares today, among which the stem cell concept is the number one hot spot.

in the view of industry insiders, the overall downward space for the pharmaceutical sector is relatively limited, and the fundamentals of many pharmaceutical stocks have basically reached the bottoming stage. september and october may be the best rebound opportunity of the whole year.

medical sector strengthens

on september 9, as the shanghai composite index and shenzhen component index hit new lows, pharmaceutical stocks were strong throughout the day.

among the a-share concept sectors, most of the sectors with the highest growth rates are related to medicine, among which hyperbaric oxygen chambers, cellular immunotherapy, private hospitals, and gene sequencing occupy the top four places in the growth list. medical beauty concepts are also among the top 10 in terms of growth, and many individual stocks have hit their daily limit.

from the index point of view, wind stem cell index closed up 4.04%. in terms of individual stocks, guanhao biotechnology rose by 20cm, nanhua biotechnology, zhongyuan xiehe and others rose by 10cm.

in terms of hong kong stocks, the hang seng index closed down 1.42%, while pharmaceutical and biological stocks also rose. among them, kangfang biopharma rose more than 15%, wuxi apptec rose nearly 4%, and wuxi biologics rose more than 2%.

on the news front, yesterday, the ministry of commerce, the national health commission, and the national medical products administration issued a notice on launching a pilot program to expand opening up in the medical field, allowing foreign-invested enterprises to engage in human stem cell, genetic diagnosis and treatment technology development and application in free trade pilot zones and free trade ports for product registration, listing and production.

pharmaceuticals are expected to rebound

in the view of institutions, the pharmaceutical sector may be worthy of attention after three years of systematic adjustments.

as of september 4, 2024, the rolling price-to-earnings ratios (pe-ttm) of the csi 300 pharmaceutical and healthcare index and the csi innovative drug industry index were 24 times and 37 times, respectively, which were at 0.78% and 31.37% of the historical percentiles in the past five years.

e fund management said that with the gradual stabilization of domestic policies and the introduction of policies related to innovative drugs, the domestic innovative drug industry chain and overseas prospects are worthy of attention in the second half of 2024. the stable cash flow of traditional pharmaceutical blue chips and the dividends of dividend stocks have weakened the impact of the cycle to a certain extent, and the asset integration of large pharmaceutical companies at the bottom of the cycle is also worthy of attention.

green fund said that the interim results of listed companies have been disclosed. under the influence of negative factors such as policies and high base, the overall revenue and profits of the pharmaceutical industry were the same as the same period last year. investors began to pay attention to the company's performance in the second half of the year.

in green fund's view, from the perspective of performance, the industry may perform better than the first half of the year due to the weakening of the base effect and the negative impact of policies in the second half of the year. in the short term, the industry is still under certain pressure due to medical insurance cost control. in this context, products with clinical value are likely to benefit continuously. at present, the valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is relatively low, so it remains optimistic about the medium- and long-term development of the industry and recommends strengthening attention to the pharmaceutical sector.

a fund manager of a medium-sized fund company said that for the pharmaceutical sector, september and october may be the best rebound opportunity of the whole year, and both internal and external factors are expected to ease temporarily. in the medium and long term, the revenue and expenditure pressure of the medical insurance fund will continue to exist, and the cost control measures are expected to continue to be promoted and iterated. it is difficult for the industry to have a large systemic market, and patience is needed. there are expected to be certain structural opportunities in the fields of rigid demand and going overseas.

fund managers are optimistic about innovative drugs

as for the sub-investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector, fund managers are generally optimistic about the investment value of innovative drugs.

zhao wei, fund manager of fuguo fund, said, "from the perspective of investment in the second half of the year, the entire industry should be better than in the first half of the year. hospital governance will continue, but under the premise of compliance, the demand within the hospital is rigid. we will look at the growth of the hospital more from the two dimensions of rigid demand and better competition. at the same time, last year's national innovative drug talks have begun to release support for innovative drugs. as an important part of new quality productivity, biopharmaceuticals are still an important direction for our holdings."

jin xiaofei, deputy general manager of the second equity investment department of penghua fund, pointed out that from the perspective of the sector, he is optimistic about the entire hospital. first, the outside of the hospital is affected by the weak consumption environment and the overall situation is not good. second, the payment method within the hospital is mainly medical insurance, and after the centralized procurement in the past few years, the current payment attitude of medical insurance has become relatively mild. at the same time, the demand within the hospital is mainly related to treatment, which is relatively rigid and less affected by the economy.

"especially innovative drugs, the industry is developing healthily, but because of the weak market risk appetite, the decline is large. after the pharmaceutical industry stabilizes and rebounds, its performance is worth looking forward to. we remain positive and optimistic about innovative drugs." he said.

zhu mingrui, fund manager of nord fund, also said that the overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is at a historical bottom. at the current point in time, the overall downward space of the pharmaceutical sector is relatively limited. the fundamentals of many pharmaceutical stocks have basically entered the bottoming stage and are expected to usher in a bottom reversal.

judging from the semi-annual reports that have been disclosed, the overall performance of the api sub-sector is relatively good. in addition to the contribution brought by the weight loss drug industry chain, the prices of many api varieties have shown an upward trend. however, the pharmaceutical and medical equipment sub-sectors experienced certain performance pressure in the second quarter, but there should be some improvement in the third quarter of 2024 compared with the third quarter of 2023.