the main contract of lithium carbonate fell below 70,000 yuan/ton during trading. is it expected to accelerate inventory reduction in the future?
2024-09-09
한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina
on september 6, the main lithium carbonate futures contract fell below the 70,000 yuan/ton mark. as of the close of the day, the contract closed at 71,200 yuan/ton, a record low since its listing.many industry insiders told the securities daily reporter that in august, driven by the old-for-new policy, new energy vehicle consumption performed well, driving the continued increase in lithium battery demand, but due to the abundant production capacity on the supply side, the oversupply of lithium carbonate still exists. it is expected that with the expansion of downstream production and the peak season of consumption, lithium carbonate is expected to accelerate inventory reduction in the future.futures prices fell more than 30% this yeardata shows that on september 6, the main lithium carbonate futures contract hit a low of 69,700 yuan/ton during the intraday trading session, and closed at 71,200 yuan/ton at the close of the day. the contract was quoted at 107,700 yuan/ton at the beginning of this year, so the contract price has fallen by more than 30% this year.zheng xiaoqiang, a new energy researcher at shanghai steel union, told the securities daily reporter that the main reason for the drop in lithium carbonate prices is oversupply.in fact, the current supply and demand of lithium carbonate are continuing to improve. on the supply side, domestic production has declined. the latest data from smm shows that the weekly production of domestic lithium carbonate has dropped to around 13,000 tons. on the demand side, the "golden september and silver october" new energy vehicle consumption has performed well, driving the continued increase in lithium battery demand.according to statistics from the lithium branch of the china nonferrous metals industry association, in july 2024, the national lithium carbonate production was about 53,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.5%. in august, the operating rate of domestic lithium salt plants dropped significantly. according to smm data, the operating rates of domestic smelting plants from june to august were 63%, 57% and 54% respectively, and the expected production cuts are gradually being realized."on the demand side, with the arrival of the 'golden september and silver october', electric vehicle consumption has performed well, and replacement and renewal subsidies will be released in many places in the future, which can strengthen consumers' willingness to replace electric vehicles and help deepen the peak season. therefore, there is certain support for lithium carbonate demand in september." zhang weixin, an analyst at citic construction investment futures, told the securities daily reporter."against the backdrop of the peak production and sales season, the growth rate of lithium carbonate inventories has slowed down. the latest data from smm shows that weekly lithium carbonate inventories have shown signs of destocking. recently, there have been many positive factors in the industry, for example, the delay in the commissioning of new projects, australian mining guidance to lower mine production expectations, and high growth in retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in august." zhang weixin said that lithium carbonate may have been fully priced in the long-term decline."the sales boom in the 'golden september and silver october' has been reflected in the terminal data. the current lithium battery inventory-to-sales ratio (accumulated inventory/average sales within a time limit) is continuing to decline." zheng xiaoqiang said.mining companies take multiple measures to ensure profitabilityoverall, despite recent improvements in both supply and demand, many industry insiders believe that given the medium- and long-term oversupply of lithium carbonate, the market is likely to fluctuate.in addition, the current lithium price has approached the production cost line of many self-owned mining companies. how to maintain profitability is becoming a common problem faced by lithium mining companies."currently, the production cost at the salt lake end is between 35,000 yuan/ton and 55,000 yuan/ton; the integrated production line cost at the spodumene end is between 50,000 yuan/ton and 70,000 yuan/ton; and the integrated mica production line cost is between 60,000 yuan/ton and 80,000 yuan/ton." zheng xiaoqiang said that mining companies are under certain profit pressure.it is understood that some mining companies are actively using hedging tools to protect corporate profits while proactively suspending the mining of high-cost mines, increasing cost control and optimizing mining processes."the situation on the mining side is somewhat differentiated. newly opened mines (mostly in africa) have no initial capital accumulation and high equipment depreciation losses, which has led to an inverted relationship between current prices and production profits. they can only temporarily suspend production." zheng xiaoqiang said that some old mines were developed earlier, so equipment depreciation and other expenses have been largely amortized, and they have already accumulated a certain amount of capital. currently, there is not much pressure to ship goods, and there are no plans for large-scale reductions or suspensions of production.as a "newcomer" in the lithium mining industry, a relevant person in charge of zijin mining stated at an earnings briefing at the end of august that under the current lithium carbonate price level, it would be difficult for the company to achieve the lithium carbonate equivalent production guidance set at the beginning of 2024.at the same time, many lithium companies are also continuing to explore lithium carbonate hedging. for example, yahua group said in august that due to the huge price fluctuations of lithium salt products, in order to reduce the operating risks brought by product price fluctuations to the company and maintain the company's continuous and stable operating performance, the company plans to carry out hedging business according to the production and operation plan, effectively reduce the risk of product market price fluctuations, and ensure the steady development of the main business."many lithium salt companies have done sufficient product hedging in the early stages, so the recent price drop will not affect their production capacity plans," said zheng xiaoqiang.in addition, yongxing materials stated that in the first half of 2024, the company's operating cost per ton of lithium carbonate was only 50,000 yuan, a year-on-year cost reduction of more than 10%. during the reporting period, the company made a series of work, including precise mining and classification of raw ore, technological breakthroughs in improving mineral processing yield and yield, optimizing smelting process formulas, improving smelting yield and crystal conversion rate, optimizing procurement methods, and increasing by-product sales revenue. the focus of cost reduction in the future will mainly be to continue technological research and development, further improve the yield of lithium and strengthen the research and development of comprehensive utilization technology of by-products.image | zcool
produced by | zhou wenrui
