viewpoint丨a number of important data will be released next week! can the a-share market fight back?
2024-09-08
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the weekly k-line of the three major a-share indices continued to fall this week, and the shanghai composite index even closed with a bare-footed middle-yin line; and the general decline on friday not only caused the daily trend of the shanghai composite index to break further downward, but also dragged the shenzhen composite index and the chinext index to the dangerous edge of breaking again. there were some positive news releases over the weekend, but the market still lacks confidence in the upward trend, and next week both china and the united states will release a number of heavy data, so it would be good if the a-share market can stabilize.
the probability of the federal reserve cutting interest rates in september is already very high, but wall street does not dare to have high expectations for the extent of the cut (25 or 50 basis points), which also led to a collective decline in u.s. stocks on friday - especially the weakening of large u.s. technology stocks, which had a relatively obvious negative sentiment transmission to related a-share sectors.
the actual impact of the federal reserve’s interest rate decisions on the a-share market is weakening, and next week both china and the united states will release more important data, and the related results will further increase the disturbance to the market.
from a technical perspective: the daily trend of the shanghai composite index is still breaking down the chart, with the lower supports at 2752-2724-2700 respectively. if this range cannot be maintained, it will most likely test the low of 2635 before the spring festival; the key for the shenzhen composite index and the chinext index will depend on whether the support near the low point on august 29 is effective. if this point cannot be maintained, both of them will most likely look for the low point before the spring festival.
from the perspective of capital: the trading volume of the two markets continued to decline last week, and basically returned to the low level above 500 billion yuan - the selling pressure is not very large, the key is that the carrying capacity is weak, and not much capital is willing to enter the market to go long easily, which makes it difficult for the market to turn around.
there are several aspects to remind everyone to pay attention to in the short-term speculation direction. first, huawei and apple will have a direct competition at the new product (including hardware and software) conference next week, but the relevant sectors have already moved before. even if there is a "surprise", don't blindly chase the rise and beware of funds pulling up and cashing out. second, the pilot opening of "establishing wholly foreign-owned hospitals" may bring positive stimulation to the pharmaceutical and medical related sectors, but which specific branch field will take the lead depends on the direction of capital grouping.
third, the banking sector is still suppressed by the 5-day line and has not yet stabilized. its daily trend is likely to find support near the annual line. if the actual market is indeed interpreted in this way, the probability of the shanghai composite index continuing to break downward will also increase.
