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cailianshe news, september 8 (editor: zhao hao)concerns about the health of the u.s. economy are spreading in the market. coupled with factors such as the upcoming policy shift of the federal reserve and tensions in the u.s. election, most european and american stock markets and commodities fell this week.

as of friday's close, the nasdaq fell 5.77% this week, its biggest weekly drop since january 2022, and has fallen more than 10% from its record high; the s&p 500 fell 4.25%, and the dow fell 2.93%, both of which were its biggest weekly drops since march 2023.

the closely watched employment data showed that the number of non-farm payrolls in the united states increased by 142,000 in august, higher than the 89,000 in the previous month, but lower than the market expectation of 160,000. analysts believe that the path for the united states to achieve a soft landing has become narrower.

angelo kourkafas, senior investment strategist at edward jones, said: "the data shows that we are still on track for a soft landing, but it is clear that more downside risks have emerged and the market will be very sensitive to this. the expectation of increased volatility is realistic."

in about 10 days, the federal reserve will hold a two-day policy meeting, which means that central bank officials have entered a ten-day "quiet period". the market has not yet concluded the extent of the possible rate cut, and former u.s. treasury secretary lawrence summers said that the non-agricultural report has made forecasts more complicated.

during these ten days, the most important data is the us cpi (consumer price index) report scheduled to be released before the market opens next wednesday. next thursday's ppi (producer price index) and initial jobless claims may also be the barometer of us monetary policy.

the interest rate market shows that after the non-farm payrolls, the camp supporting a 25 basis point rate cut has temporarily gained the upper hand, but interest rate strategist ira jersey mentioned that the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut cannot be completely ruled out at the moment, so next week's cpi data will be the decisive factor.

in addition to the data, the us election, which has attracted global attention, will also have a major program next week. the presidential candidates kamala harris and donald trump of the two parties in the united states will participate in a debate hosted by abc news on september 10 (09:00 am on september 11, beijing time).

trump had previously refused to debate, but later changed his attitude. analysts believe that trump hopes to regain attention through the debate and stop harris's rising momentum. the latest polls show that harris is slightly ahead of trump in several swing states.

in addition, investors will welcome apple's autumn conference in the early hours of tuesday beijing time, with the theme of "highlight moments". well-known whistleblower mark gurman said that the technology giant will release updates for the latest generation of iphone, airpods and apple watch.

in terms of financial reports, the q2 earnings season for u.s. stocks has come to an end. next week, the performance of oracle and adobe is worth paying attention to. both companies have businesses related to artificial intelligence technology.

overview of important overseas economic events next week (beijing time):

monday (september 9): japan's second quarter real gdp annualized quarterly rate revised value, eurozone september sentix investor confidence index, us july wholesale sales monthly rate, us august new york fed 1-year inflation forecast

tuesday (september 10):apple holds new product launch conference, uk unemployment rate in august, opec releases monthly crude oil market report, us nfib small business confidence index in august

wednesday (september 11):harris and trump debate in us presidential race、uk july industrial output monthly rate、u.s. august unadjusted cpi annual rate

thursday (september 12): iea releases monthly crude oil market report, ecb announces interest rate decision, ecb president lagarde holds monetary policy press conference, us initial jobless claims for the week ending september 7, us ppi annual rate in august

friday (september 13): eurozone industrial output monthly rate in july, russian central bank announces interest rate decision, us import price index monthly rate in august, us university of michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value in september/preliminary value of one-year inflation rate forecast

(cailianshe zhao hao)