news

cailianshe news, september 7 (editor: xiaoxiang)as "the most important stock on earth" in the eyes of wall street,nvidiathe market value of the company has evaporated by about $406 billion this week, which has put considerable pressure on the u.s. stock market. there are signs that concerns about the health of the u.s. economy and that ai trading may have gone too far are spreading rapidly.

the world's leading maker of artificial intelligence chips has lost about a fifth of its value in the past two weeks.the latest plunge also highlights a more pressing problem for investors at a tech giant that has almost single-handedly led the rally in u.s. stocks over the past two years: nvidia’s volatility is dwarfing that of its “big seven” peers, and even makes bitcoin look like a calm haven by comparison.

market data shows that in the past 30 trading days, nvidia's stock price has fluctuated widely between us$90.69 and us$131.26. the decline in market value on tuesday (us$279 billion evaporated) reached an unprecedented level for a single u.s. stock.

this level of volatility has caused its actual volatility index to rise to around 80 in the past 30 days - approximatelymicrosoftfour times as much as bitcoin, twice as much as bitcoin, and higher than trump's media companies and a series of meme stocks.

the decline has pushed the stock to its worst two-week performance in two years, according to data compiled by the industry. the drop came after the company issued a tepid earnings forecast last month and suffered delayed shipments of its blackwell chips, which dampened investor excitement, and then followed news that the u.s. department of justice issued a subpoena to the company in an escalating antitrust investigation.broadcomthursday's disappointing sales forecast also cast a bleak picture on the outlook for the entire chip industry.

“you’re in a very tough market environment right now,” said rhys williams, chief strategist at wayve capital management llc. “as to where the bottom is (for nvidia), it’s anyone’s guess.”

of course, even with the recent decline, nvidia has still rewarded investors handsomely so far this year. the stock is still up more than 100% this year, adding about $1.3 trillion to its market value. wall street generally expects nvidia to continue to do well as companies rush to build out ai-related infrastructure, and this process is expected to continue for at least a few more quarters.

data compiled by the agency also shows that nvidia's largest customers - especially microsoft, meta, and amazon - account for more than 40% of nvidia's revenue. these technology giants have affirmed their spending plans in recent quarters.

nvidia's performance last week actually confirmed this optimistic view. this "ai weathervane" recorded revenue of us$30.04 billion in the second fiscal quarter, a year-on-year increase of 122%; adjusted earnings per share were us$0.67, both exceeding market expectations, but failing to meet the most bullish expectations.

“for long-term investors, now could be a good time to get in,” said wayve capital’s williams. “if i had new money right now, i’d be keen to buy some ai-related stocks.”

what do you think about the future market?

at present, some industry insiders have their own opinions on nvidia's future trends.melius research analyst ben reitzes said that while antitrust pressure is a factor that nvidia investors must pay attention to now, other factors may have a greater impact on the company's stock price performance in the coming months.

reitzes is currently focusing on two points: one is nvidia's profit margin performance, and the other is whether the company can maintain its growth potential until fiscal 2026. he believes that these two points may be the key to determining the trend of nvidia's stock price in the next six months.

in reitzes' view, investors were so concerned ahead of the earnings release about the potential impact on revenue from the delayed launch of the new blackwell chip family that they "seemed to have forgotten to consider the impact of resolving this issue on margins." "the key for the stock now is how and when gross margins bottom out," he wrote.

reitzes expects blackwell's earnings/volume to start rising as inventory backlogs level off, with gross margins bottoming out at about 72.6% in the first quarter of fiscal 2026. but before that happens, investors need to have confidence in the margin path. "once investors get a sense that blackwell will drive overall margins higher again, the stock is likely to follow suit in the first half of calendar 2025," he wrote.

in addition, another issue that has recently affected nvidia's stock price is the renewed debate surrounding ai and its return on investment.reitzes noted that this is similar to what happened around this time last year, when investors began to question whether 2025 would be the year ai investment peaked because they didn’t see widespread enough adoption of ai applications.

however, reitzes believes that investors will get more information to verify all this in the near future.for example, he is bullish on various video generation applications, which could become "a key driver of investment and provide more tangible use cases to rationalize further investment in consumer internet applications throughout 2026." openai's next-generation gpt could also create a boom in the enterprise.

nvidia's next-generation chips after blackwell may also be of interest in the near future. "when we hear more about rubin at gtc in march, the debate will really settle," reitzes said.