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the probability of the federal reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in september has risen to 50%. at the same time, new york fed president williams gave a speech, saying that "it is appropriate to lower the federal funds rate now."

on friday, september 6, the u.s. bureau of labor statistics released a report showing:

the u.s. nonfarm payrolls increased by 142,000 in august, less than the expected 165,000, and the july data was revised down sharply from 114,000 to 89,000;

the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% from 4.3% in july, in line with expectations. this was the first decline in the unemployment rate since march this year.

hourly wages increased by 3.8% year-on-year, slightly higher than the expected 3.7% and the previous value of 3.6%; hourly wages increased by 0.4% month-on-month, with the expected and previous values ​​of 0.3% and 0.2% respectively.

after the release of the employment data, expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut by the federal reserve in september increased, short-term u.s. treasury bonds soared, and the 2-year u.s. treasury yield fell in the short term, falling 11 basis points on the day. the s&p 500 index futures remained low, and the u.s. dollar continued to fall.

as of press time, traders expect the probability of the federal reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points this month to have risen to 50%.

at the same time, new york fed president williams gave a speech, saying that "it is appropriate to lower the federal funds rate now." he also pointed out that the risks facing employment and inflation targets remain balanced.

the previous value was revised downward again. the number of new jobs in june was revised down by 61,000, from 179,000 to 118,000, and the july data was revised down by 25,000, from 114,000 to 89,000.

after revisions, employment for june and july totaled 86,000 fewer jobs than previously reported.

this is the fourth consecutive time that non-farm payrolls have been revised downward, and six of the past seven times.

job growth in august was driven primarily by hiring in the health care and social assistance industries, with construction and government employment also increasing. however, manufacturing employment deteriorated significantly, with 24,000 jobs lost in august, compared with expectations for a 2,000-job loss.