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tonight, the global market is in a state of panic.

on the evening of september 3rd, beijing time, data released by the institute for supply management (ism) showed that the ism manufacturing pmi in the united states in august was 47.2, lower than the expected 47.5 and higher than the previous value. among them, the ism manufacturing new orders index in the united states in august fell to 44.6, significantly lower than the previous value (47.4), the lowest since may 2023. analysts pointed out that the overall trend still shows that us manufacturing activity is sluggish, which has triggered market concerns about a us economic recession.

the u.s. stock market fell across the board. as of 23:00 beijing time, the nasdaq fell 2.43%, the s&p 500 fell 1.54%, and the dow fell 1.12%. among them, u.s. chip stocks fell collectively, with the philadelphia semiconductor index falling more than 6%, nvidia falling more than 8%, and micron technology and tsmc falling more than 6%. on the news front, the july sales data released by the semiconductor industry association was below the seasonal trend. morgan stanley said that "almost all product lines in the data report were weaker than our expectations."

european stock markets also fell across the board, with the euro stoxx 50 index down 1.18%; international crude oil prices also suffered a sharp drop. as of press time, the price of us wti crude oil futures plummeted by more than 4% to $70.5 per barrel; brent crude oil fell below $75 per barrel, a 4.5% plunge. on the news front, the governor of the libyan central bank said that the various factions were close to reaching an agreement and were expected to restore oil production.

a sharp drop across the board

on the evening of september 3rd, beijing time, data released by the institute for supply management (ism) showed that the ism manufacturing pmi in august was 47.2, lower than the expected 47.5 and higher than the previous value of 46.8. this is the fifth consecutive month that it has been below the 50 boom-bust watershed.

among them, the new order index fell to 44.6, significantly lower than the previous value (47.4), the lowest since may 2023; the production index further declined, from 45.9 in july to 44.8; the inventory index in august was 50.3, a sharp increase of 5.8 points from the previous month, and the previous value was 44.5; the employment index was 46, higher than the previous value of 43.4.

as the first important us economic indicator released in september, the august ism manufacturing pmi data has attracted much attention from the market. analysts pointed out that us manufacturing employment continued to shrink, but the pace has slowed down, but the overall trend still shows that manufacturing activities are sluggish, which has triggered market concerns about a us economic recession.

financial blog zerohedge commented that the u.s. new orders/inventory ratio in august suddenly fell back to recession levels, indicating that the manufacturing pipeline has been severely clogged and large-scale layoffs are about to begin.

as the first important us economic indicator released in september, the august ism manufacturing pmi data has attracted much attention from the market. analysts pointed out that us manufacturing employment continued to shrink, but the pace has slowed down, but the overall trend still shows that manufacturing activities are sluggish, which has triggered market concerns about a us economic recession.

financial blog zerohedge commented that the u.s. new orders/inventory ratio in august suddenly fell back to recession levels, indicating that the manufacturing pipeline has been severely clogged and large-scale layoffs are about to begin.

another data released earlier tonight showed that the final value of the us s&p global manufacturing pmi in august was 47.9, expected to be 48.1, and the previous value was 48. chris williamson, chief business economist at s&p global market intelligence, said that the further decline in the pmi data showed that the drag of manufacturing on the economy increased in the middle of the third quarter. forward-looking indicators show that this drag may intensify in the coming months.

after the u.s. stock market opened, major indexes plummeted across the board. as of 23:00 beijing time, the nasdaq plummeted 2.43%, the s&p 500 fell 1.54%, and the dow fell 1.12%.

among them, u.s. chip stocks collectively fell sharply, with the philadelphia semiconductor index plummeting more than 6%, nvidia plummeting more than 8%, and micron technology and tsmc falling more than 6%. on the news front, the july sales data released by the semiconductor industry association was below the seasonal trend. morgan stanley said that "almost all product lines in the data report were weaker than our expectations," and the overall market still looked weak.

european stock markets also fell across the board, with the euro stoxx 50 index down 1.18%, the german dax index and the french cac40 index both down 1%, the spanish ibex35 index down 1.11%, and the italian ftse mib index down 1.5%.

at the same time, international crude oil prices also suffered a heavy blow, with wti crude oil plummeting more than 4% to $70.5 per barrel; brent crude oil fell below $75 per barrel, plummeting 4.44% on the day, erasing all gains in 2024. on the news front, the governor of the libyan central bank said that the various factions were close to reaching an agreement and were expected to restore oil production.

important data is coming soon

the last non-farm report before the federal reserve’s september interest rate decision will be released this friday. against the backdrop of the established downward trend in us inflation, this employment report is undoubtedly one of the most important data this week and even in september.

phil camporeale, portfolio manager of global allocation strategy at jpmorgan asset management, believes that this non-farm payroll report may be the final "arbiter" of whether the federal reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points in september.

according to the consensus expectations of economists surveyed by bloomberg, the number of new non-farm jobs in the united states is expected to reach 163,000 in august, a sharp rebound from 114,000 in july, while the unemployment rate dropped from 4.3% to 4.2%, the first decline since march. in addition, the year-on-year growth rate of hourly wages rose from 3.6% to 3.7%.

among them, morgan stanley analyst sam coffin pointed out in a report to clients that an important reason for the unemployment rate reaching 4.3% in july was the abnormal increase in temporary layoffs. as texas gradually recovers from the impact of hurricane beryl, the labor market is not expected to stage a "tragedy" similar to that in july.

morgan stanley predicts that the unemployment rate will drop to 4.2% in august, and the number of new non-farm payrolls is expected to rise to 185,000. it is expected that the re-acceleration of new employment will lead the federal reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in september.

among the major wall street banks, citigroup is more pessimistic, predicting an increase of 125,000 jobs in august and an unemployment rate of 4.3%, roughly similar to july. this will confirm that the weaker data in july was not just due to temporary factors, but reflects a real weakening in labor demand, which may lead the federal reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in september.

citi emphasized that since the august employment data will be released the day before the quiet period of the federal reserve's september fomc meeting, the data will largely determine whether the interest rate cut will be 50 basis points or 25 basis points.

it is worth noting that the fed’s choice of timing for interest rate cuts has been frequently questioned, and some analysts have even warned that failure to speed up rate cuts could lead to big mistakes.

on september 2, local time, kenneth akintewe, head of asian sovereign debt at aberdeen asset management, said in an interview with the media, "the federal reserve may have headed for a policy mistake." he pointed out that some data have already reflected the weaker economic conditions, including the non-farm data that had been significantly revised.

akintewe pointed out that it takes some time for the fed's policy changes to be transmitted to actual economic activities. whether it is a cumulative interest rate cut of 150 basis points or 200 basis points, "these easing policies will take 6-8 months to be transmitted to the market." if the us economy suddenly shows more signs of weakness in early 2025 and the fed cuts interest rates again, it will take until the second half of 2025 to see the effect of the easing policy being transmitted to the economy. by then, the economic situation may be "very different."