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on the evening of september 3rd, beijing time, international crude oil prices suddenly plunged, and wti crude oil fell rapidly. as of press time, the decline widened to 4% to $70.93 per barrel, hitting a new low since january this year. brent crude oil fell 4.09% to $74.35 per barrel, erasing the gains since the beginning of this year and hitting the lowest point in the session since december 2023.

at the same time, european stocks fell further, with the german dax index, the french cac40 index, and the european stoxx 50 index all falling by more than 1%. u.s. stocks opened lower and fell on tuesday local time. as of press time, the three major indexes all fell by more than 1%, with the nasdaq falling by 2.43%.

international oil prices plummet

on september 3, international oil prices plummeted.

on the news front, according to bloomberg, an agreement to resolve the dispute over libya's crude oil production and export suspension is about to be reached, and international oil prices have fallen to their lowest point since the beginning of the year. bloomberg quoted the governor of the central bank of libya as saying that there are "strong" signs that the relevant political factions are close to reaching an agreement and are expected to restore oil production.

earlier, according to cctv news, two oil fields in southeastern libya had stopped production on august 27 local time. in addition, one oil field has reduced production to the lowest level. on august 26, osama hamad, the prime minister of the government appointed by the libyan national congress, issued a statement on his government social media account, announcing that all oil fields and ports under the control of the government encountered force majeure and suspended oil production and exports.

in addition, reuters recently reported that the organization of petroleum exporting countries and its allies (opec+) will increase oil supply by 180,000 barrels per day in a few weeks to gradually restore production. this is part of their plan to gradually cancel the latest 2.2 million barrels per day production cuts, while extending other production cuts until the end of 2025.

sources revealed that opec+ plans to increase oil production as planned starting in october. this decision was made due to supply disruptions in libya and the commitment of some member countries to reduce excess production. influenced by this news, crude oil prices have experienced a short-term continuous decline since the end of august.

it is worth noting that this oil price plunge comes at a time when the market is concerned about both supply and demand. in addition to the disturbance of geopolitical risks on the supply side, market concerns about the decline in crude oil demand in the world's largest economy are also rising. u.s. oil consumption is slowing to its lowest seasonal level since the epidemic.

shenyin wanguo futures analysis believes that at the beginning of the second half of august, concerns about demand and the temporary easing of geopolitical risks in the middle east offset the impact of favorable us economic data, and the downward revision of us non-farm employment growth exacerbated the prospect of slowing oil demand.

market insiders said that with the end of the peak gasoline consumption season in the united states and the gradual cancellation of opec+'s voluntary production cuts, the bottom support for oil prices may loosen. in the short term, we need to focus on the support of oil prices near the low point of the year.

u.s. stocks plunged, nvidia fell more than 7%

markets worried about us recession

at the same time, us stocks also plunged, with the dow jones falling 1.07%, the s&p 500 falling 1.44%, and the nasdaq falling 2.43%.

among them, u.s. chip stocks fell collectively, with the philadelphia semiconductor index plunging more than 6%. nvidia fell more than 7%, its market value evaporated by about us$210 billion (about rmb 1.5 trillion), and micron technology and tsmc fell more than 6%.

on the news front, the july sales data released by the semiconductor industry association was below the seasonal trend. morgan stanley said that "almost all product lines were weaker than our expectations" in the data report and the overall market still looked weak.

on the evening of september 3rd, beijing time, data released by the institute for supply management (ism) showed that the ism manufacturing pmi in the united states in august was 47.2, lower than the expected 47.5 and higher than the previous value. among them, the ism manufacturing new orders index in the united states in august fell to 44.6, significantly lower than the previous value (47.4), the lowest since may 2023. analysts pointed out that the overall trend still shows that us manufacturing activity is sluggish, which has triggered market concerns about a us economic recession.

chris williamson, chief business economist at s&p global market intelligence, said the further decline in the pmi data suggests that manufacturing's drag on the economy increased in the middle of the third quarter. forward-looking indicators suggest that the drag is likely to intensify in the coming months. slower-than-expected sales have left warehouses piling up with unsold inventory, and a lack of new orders prompted factories to cut production for the first time since january. producers also cut jobs for the first time this year and reduced their purchases of inputs amid concerns about overcapacity. the combination of falling orders and rising inventories sends the bleakest forward-looking signal on production trends in a year and a half and one of the most worrying since the global financial crisis. while lower demand for raw materials has eased pressure on supply chains, rising wages and high freight rates are still widely reported as factors pushing up input costs, which are now rising at the fastest pace since april last year.

the last non-farm report before the federal reserve’s september interest rate decision will be released this friday. against the backdrop of the established downward trend in us inflation, this employment report is undoubtedly one of the most important data this week and even in september.

phil camporeale, portfolio manager of global allocation strategy at jpmorgan asset management, believes that this non-farm payroll report may be the final "arbiter" of whether the federal reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points in september.

although british investment firm aberdeen asset management expects the us economy to achieve a "soft landing", its head of asian sovereign debt, kenneth akintewe, believes the country still faces the risk of a long-term economic slowdown in 2025.

in an interview with the media on monday (september 2), akintewe said, "is there a possibility that the fed has sleepwalked into a policy mistake?" he pointed out that some data have already reflected the weaker economic conditions, including the non-farm data that was previously revised sharply. akintewe pointed out that if the us economy suddenly shows more signs of weakness in early 2025 and the fed cuts interest rates again, it will take until the second half of 2025 to see the effect of the loose policy being transmitted to the economy. by then, the economic situation may be "very different."