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overnight, in the "double red meeting", manchester united lost 0:3 to liverpool. in the first three games of this season, manchester united only scored 3 points and ranked 14th in the premier league.

when fans were discussing casemiro's two mistakes that led to the team losing two goals, some fans couldn't help but think of the king cristiano ronaldo who could score goals at any time, but unfortunately, ronaldo had already left manchester united reluctantly due to the unfounded "charge" of "scoring goals and hurting the team" and lack of respect.

ronaldo used to be omnipotent and saved his team from desperate situations many times. because of his outstanding performance and historical statistics in the champions league, he was called the "king of the champions league" by fans.

whether it is on the court or in the stock market, there needs to be someone who can turn the tide.

in the first half of last year, whenever the market was weak, ai always stepped forward bravely to save the market. however, this year, there was no such scene, and the "person" who turned the tide did not appear.

in the past two or three months, the blue chip stocks represented by the four major behaviors have appeared more frequently, stabilizing the market when the market is weak. unfortunately, in the context of the game of stock funds, if one side is stable, the other side (small and medium-sized stocks) will naturally not be so stable.

last friday, the a-share market rose sharply, but today it continued to fall into the quagmire.

the shanghai composite index fell below last friday's positive line, hitting a new low in this round; the six major indices, including the csi 1000 index, the chinext index, the science and technology innovation 50 index, the csi 500 index, the csi 300 index, and the shanghai composite 50 index, also fell below last friday's low. this trend can be regarded as a worst-case scenario.

regarding today's market adjustment, some netizens joked, "this round of bull market will start on august 30, 2024 and end on september 1, 2024, spanning two months."

the netizens’ ridicule is understandable, because historically, the market has always had beautiful visions of the golden september and silver october, not to mention that the market saw a large increase in volume last friday.

however, ideals are full of hope, but reality is very skinny. through today's adjustment, stock investors found that the market is still the same, still so weak, and feels even weaker than before.

in late june and july, the market rose on the last trading day, and it was still able to maintain a few trading days. but this time the performance is obviously weaker. after a big rise on the last trading day of august, the market fell directly below the low of the previous friday on the first trading day of september.

today's market hit a new low and the general adjustment of small and medium-cap stocks means that this round of adjustment is not over, which really slaps da ge in the face.

in da ge's opinion, the simplest indicator for subsequent market observation is still volume. as long as the volume does not shrink rapidly below 600 billion yuan, we can still expect a rebound.

however, if the volume shrinks rapidly and returns to below 600 billion yuan, the money-making effect will most likely be significantly weakened, and funds will only speculate on a small number of niche sectors. this is something that everyone needs to pay attention to.

let’s talk about sectors.

the banking sector, which had been adjusted for three consecutive days last week, rebounded today, but most of the stocks in the central state-owned enterprise sector with chinese characters in their names were adjusted today, such as china shipbuilding corporation and central construction enterprises, which became one of the main forces in today's market adjustment.

in da ge's opinion, this is more of a logic of compensating for the decline. because in the market adjustment in the past three months, the performance of many chinese-character stocks is still relatively resistant to decline.

the consumer electronics sector adjusted today, and the only branch that performed well was the folding screen sector, but there was also some differentiation in the folding screen sector.

this morning, huawei terminal announced on its official weibo that it will hold a new product launch conference on september 10. after huawei's official announcement, yu chengdong responded on weibo that huawei's most leading, innovative and subversive product is here!

it is worth noting that apple’s previously announced autumn new product launch conference is scheduled for 1 a.m. beijing time on september 10, with the theme of “highlight moments”.

in da ge's opinion, apple and huawei holding new product launches on the same day seems like a competition.

the two major sector indexes of apple concepts and consumer electronics broke through the downward trend line since march this year last friday. even if it is a false breakthrough, in the context of event-driven background, da ge believes that there will at least be repetitions.

in terms of ai, beth kindig, chief technology analyst at i/o fund, said that nvidia's market value is expected to more than triple, and nvidia's long-term valuation is expected to reach 10 trillion us dollars, while its current market value is 2.93 trillion us dollars.

da ge remembers that on august 4, 2021, an analyst predicted catl's operating data in 2060, and many analysts and stockholders were stunned. in hindsight, catl's stock price was at a mid-term head position at the time, and has fallen 33% so far.

on april 23, 2021, a story went viral in social circles. an old lady in dalian bought 50,000 yuan of changchun high-tech in 2008, then forgot about it. when she went to close her account, she found that the market value of her account was more than 5 million yuan. in retrospect, the stock price of changchun high-tech was at its historical peak at the time, and the decline has exceeded 80% so far.

on august 29, nvidia released its second quarter financial report. this was the first time in more than a year that nvidia's performance did not exceed expectations. some investors in the market believed that nvidia's performance growth rate had peaked, causing its stock price to plummet by more than 6%.

today, analysts are boasting that nvidia’s market value will reach $10 trillion. will it repeat the mistakes of changchun high-tech and catl?

da ge believes that although it is impossible to determine when nvidia will peak or whether it has already peaked, there is a possibility. after all, the performance of a company cannot always exceed expectations, and the turning point will come one day. for technology stocks, when the growth rate turns downward, it is often a signal that the stock price is going downhill. most of the news about changchun high-tech and catl mentioned above appeared at the stage when the sentiment was at its peak and the stocks in the sector were at the top.

finally, da ge makes a summary: the market hit a new low in this round, and many indexes engulfed the positive line of last friday, which means that the market adjustment has not completely ended. the focus will be on the changes in volume in the future. at present, it is mainly to watch more and do less.

(zhang daoda)

according to the latest regulations of relevant national departments, this note does not involve any operational suggestions and the risks of entering the market are borne by the individual.

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