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last friday, the a-share market rose sharply, triggering market expectations for the market in september. however, the index trend and the performance of some sectors this morning were a bit unexpected.

the chinese-character stock sector suddenly plummeted this morning.china shipbuilding, china communications construction, china railway construction and other stocks fell the most. the liquor sector fell again, with kweichow moutai falling 2.9% in the morning.

the banking sector rebounded.agricultural bank of china rose 3.98% in the morning, a rare rise, and its index contribution ranked first in the shanghai composite index. among high-dividend assets, the coal sector rose sharply, with china coal energy rising more than 6%, and its share price hit a new high this year. in addition, china telecom, sinopec, and sdic power also rose.

a-shares became a hot topic during the trading session. as of the close, the shanghai composite index fell 0.62%, the shenzhen component index fell 1.24%, and the chinext index fell 1.76%.

two-wheeler sector surges

this morning, the two-wheeled vehicle sector surged, with xinri shares, jiuqi shares, and tianneng shares leading the gains.

on the news front, the ministry of commerce and five other departments recently issued the "implementation plan for promoting the replacement of old electric bicycles for new". according to the plan, all regions should make good use of the relevant funds to support the replacement of old consumer goods for new ones, provide subsidies to consumers who return their old electric bicycles in their names and exchange them for new electric bicycles, and appropriately increase subsidies for consumers who return old lithium-ion battery electric bicycles and exchange them for lead-acid battery electric bicycles. consumers who enjoy subsidies are encouraged to purchase qualified new electric bicycles produced by companies that meet the "electric bicycle industry standard conditions". local governments should formulate implementation plans for the replacement of old electric bicycles based on their actual conditions and independently determine the specific amount of support, methods, start time, etc.

in addition, the yunnan provincial department of commerce recently announced the "implementation rules for the subsidy for the replacement of old electric bicycles in yunnan province in 2024". during the event, individual consumers who return (cancel) their old electric bicycles in yunnan province and exchange them for a new electric bicycle will receive a subsidy of 500 yuan. for each old bicycle returned (cancelled) and a new one purchased, one subsidy can be applied for, and each person can apply for a maximum of four subsidies.

reviewing the development of the two-wheeled electric vehicle industry, before 2013, the industry was in a fast-growing incremental market, with homogeneous products and a lack of high-end products; from 2013 to 2018, the industry entered a period of stock competition, and channel wars accelerated the industry reshuffle; from 2019 to 2023, the new national standard put forward higher requirements for the industry, the industry's structure was optimized, and it gradually embarked on high-quality development.

although the number of electric two-wheeled vehicles in my country has reached a relatively high level in recent years, it is a consensus that there is a large space for replacement demand, which is also a major background for the continued high prosperity of the industry. market insiders said that the replacement dividend brought by the new national standard has not yet been fully released, and with the release of new industry policies this year, the demand for replacement has always existed. large-scale old-for-new policies have been implemented in various cities, further expanding the demand for the renewal of two-wheeled electric vehicles.

according to deloitte data forecasts, 62.1% of consumer demand in the two-wheeled electric vehicle industry in 2024 will come from replacement demand, and the number of two-wheeled electric vehicles in my country will reach 420 million, which can steadily release a large-scale demand for replacing old vehicles.

liquor sector plummets

this morning, the liquor sector underwent major adjustments, with luzhou laojiao, shanxi fenjiu, yanghe shares and other stocks leading the declines.

last week, the liquor sector fluctuated greatly, and shanxi fenjiu once approached the limit down during the intraday trading. judging from the interim results, the liquor sector is clearly divided. the 20 a-share listed liquor companies achieved a total operating income of 238 billion yuan, an increase of about 13.7% year-on-year; and achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 95.264 billion yuan, an increase of about 13.77% year-on-year. however, compared with the overall growth in the same period last year, in the first half of this year, the revenue of 5 liquor companies declined and the net profit attributable to the parent company of 5 liquor companies declined.

guojin securities said that the market's expectations for the second quarter reports of liquor companies are relatively cautious and rational, and the market has intensively revised down the eps (earnings per share) of liquor targets. however, with the approaching double-festival sales period, the recent intensive opening of channels for payment collection and terminal stocking, structural highlights can still be expected.

huaxin securities is optimistic about the investment opportunities in the liquor sector from three perspectives. first, the structure of chips has been cleared after the previous oversold, and it is currently at the bottom of historical valuations; second, the negative impact of short-term performance has been eliminated; third, as high-quality assets, the liquor sector targets have stable long-term profitability and a good business model, and the valuation level can be expected to recover.