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this week, a-shares fell first and then rose. in the general market rally on friday, the trading volume of the two markets also increased significantly to more than 880 billion yuan. looking ahead to the market in september, is a-shares expected to usher in a turning point?

in the view of industry insiders, the valuation and risk premium of a-shares are still at a relatively low level in history, with limited room for downside, but fundamental improvement is not a one-day job, and there are still many uncertainties overseas. a-shares are expected to be dominated by structural opportunities. in the short term, we are still optimistic about dividends and overseas expansion.

major events that will affect future investment

the pmi in august was 49.1%

data released by the national bureau of statistics on august 31 showed that in august, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (pmi) was 49.1%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, but the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. the business climate has picked up slightly, new momentum has recovered rapidly, and the economic recovery has support.

the central bank bought 100 billion yuan of government bonds in august

on august 30, the central bank's "open market treasury bond trading business announcement" column welcomed the first announcement. the announcement showed that the central bank carried out open market treasury bond trading operations in august: short-term treasury bonds were purchased and long-term treasury bonds were sold, with a net purchase of 100 billion yuan for the whole month. industry insiders believe that this move by the central bank is equivalent to a net injection of liquidity, effectively supporting the financing needs of the real economy, buying short-term and selling long-term treasury bonds, which is conducive to stabilizing the operation of the financial market and preventing financial risks.

MSCIchina indexadjustment takes effect

on august 30, the latest msci constituent stock adjustment took effect after the market closed. in this adjustment, the msci china index included two a-shares, namely huaneng hydropower and shenghong technology; and removed 55 a-shares and 5 hong kong stocks, focusing on materials, finance and other sectors.

institutional investment views in the future

citic securities: style tends to be balanced in stages

entering september, the policy is in the observation period, external signals are becoming clearer, and the turning point of price signals still needs to be waited for; the release of the mid-year report, the change in dividend expectations, and the easing of market liquidity pressure, three major factors have jointly promoted the repair of investors' pessimistic sentiment, and the style has tended to be balanced in stages. in terms of allocation, it is still recommended to focus on the two main lines of dividends and overseas expansion, and then turn to high-performance growth and domestic demand after the price signal improves.

haitong securities: the resonance of internal and external factors is expected to support the rise of the a-share market

from historical experience, the improvement of overseas liquidity may promote the return of short-term flexible foreign capital to a-shares. structurally, after the loosening of overseas liquidity, foreign capital of various attributes in a-shares prefers us dollar interest rate sensitive sectors such as electronics and pharmaceuticals, as well as high-end manufacturing with fundamental advantages. however, fundamentals may be the key to determining the overall flow of foreign capital. with the policy efforts, domestic fundamentals may see a turnaround. combined with the improvement of overseas liquidity, the resonance of internal and external factors is expected to support the rise of the a-share center. in terms of specific configuration, china's advantageous manufacturing may be the medium-term main line. it is recommended to pay attention to medium and high-end manufacturing with strong external demand and strong domestic supply competitiveness, and technology manufacturing driven by policy benefits and technological innovation.

kaiyuan securities: barbell strategy is still effective

at present, domestic policies for "stabilizing growth" are frequently issued, but it will not be a one-day job to improve fundamentals under inertial pressure; there are still many uncertainties such as overseas geopolitical conflicts. a-shares are expected to be dominated by structural opportunities, and the probability of a strong index bull market is not high. the barbell strategy is still effective. it is recommended to gradually increase the weight of "core assets + independent prosperity" on the left side while sticking to the dividend base position; at the meso-level, pay attention to the core indicator of "roe mean-standard deviation" for stock selection.

qianhai kaiyuan fund: it is expected that the medium-term strong style will still be in dividends and technology

a-share valuations and risk premiums are still at a relatively low level in history, with limited downside potential. considering the pressure of the full-year economic target and the arrival of the traditional peak season of "golden september and silver october", market sentiment may stabilize and drive a rebound in the stock market. the opening of the mid-term market still requires further policy increases. before the expected positive turn, it is expected that the strong style of the mid-term market will still be dividends and technology.

chuangjin hexin fund management: the market is still in a wait-and-see transition period

in terms of domestic growth, we need to observe when the incremental "steady growth" policy can boost demand and see substantial results, that is, when we can see a significant improvement in macroeconomic data. in terms of profit recovery and interest rate cut expectations on the numerator side, we recommend calm right-side trading, that is, "don't release the eagle before you see the rabbit." before the "rabbit" appears, the market is likely to maintain a volatile adjustment, with a fast rotation speed, and large market capitalization, dividends, and state-owned enterprise styles are relatively dominant; if interest rate cuts or further "steady growth" policies are implemented, the market will usher in a window of rebound.

noah fund: it is still recommended to focus on dividends and overseas expansion

it is expected that dividend strategies may continue to diverge, and dividend low-volatility assets will continue to focus on banks with considerable dividend yield expectations and improved asset quality expectations, hydropower and nuclear power with stable free cash return rates, and property and casualty insurance with stable premium growth; domestic exports are expected to maintain a relatively high growth rate in the future, and it is recommended to pay attention to excellent companies in the overseas sector; after the market signals become clear, the focus will be shifted to the high-performance growth and domestic demand sectors.