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[global markets ended a turbulent month after signs of a sudden slowdown in the labor market raised fears of a recession, with the impact of the yen carry trade exacerbating the plunge. since then, data showing that u.s. economic momentum has stabilized has eased investor nerves, with the dow jones industrial average hitting another record high last week and the s&p 500 within reach.]

in early august, the unwinding of yen carry trades and recession fears triggered market turmoil, and speculation of an emergency rate cut emerged. subsequently, economic data and the fed’s policy shift signal seemed to have allowed the u.s. stock market to once again pass the test of the crisis, with the dow jones industrial average taking the lead in setting a new record high and the s&p 500 rising for four consecutive months.

the upcoming non-farm data will be the first test for the market in september and is expected to determine the extent of the fed’s first interest rate cut. the market also needs more positive stimulus factors.

waiting for non-agricultural

as the most watched indicator last week, the us personal consumption expenditure (pce) price index rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year in july, the same as in june. excluding the volatile food and energy components, the core pce grew by 2.6% year-on-year, in line with market expectations. at the same time, the monthly rate of consumer spending accelerated to 0.5% last month, ensuring the resilience of the economy.

the decline in inflation expectations is also expected to ease pressure on the federal reserve. the university of michigan's monthly consumer confidence survey showed that one-year inflation expectations fell 0.1 percentage point to 2.8%, the lowest level since december 2020. the sentiment index rose slightly to 67.9 from an eight-month low of 66.4, ending the previous four consecutive months of decline.