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interface news reporter | liu sunan

interface news editor | peng peng

"let's take the data from 2019 to 2023 as an example. in the four years since the outbreak, china's gdp has grown by 20.1%, while that of the united states is 8.1% and that of europe is about 4%. therefore, china's economic growth rate is 2.5 times that of the united states and 5 times that of europe. china's economic performance still far exceeds that of the western economy." on august 30, 2024, british economist john ross said in an interview with jiemian news, "for 46 years, china's economic development has been very successful."

ross yi is an expert in economics and business. he was formerly the director of the economic and business policy department of the city of london. he is currently a senior researcher at the chongyang institute for financial studies at renmin university of china and the first full-time foreign employee of the think tank.

in 1992, when china was unknown in the international community, he published an article comparing the economic policies of china and russia, "why china's economic reform succeeded, and why russia failed?", and predicted that china's economic reform would succeed. at present, when western economists continue to predict the pessimism of the chinese economy, he has expressed his views in various forms such as text and video, debunking rumors in the western media and refuting the "china collapse theory" and other views.

ross emphasized that his professional field is international economics and politics, which led to his strong interest in china's economic and social development. "in the 1990s, many people asked me why i was so interested in china and why i should study japan or germany. i said that from the perspective of theoretical economics, the chinese economy will be a huge success. if you don't believe me now, let's come back to discuss this issue in 10 years. today, no one asks me why i am interested in china."

at the end of august 2024, the "mingde strategic dialogue" exchange activity with the theme of "chinese-style modernization and the future of the world" invited 10 representatives of european and american think tanks to come to china to have in-depth dialogues with representatives of the chinese government, enterprises, and strategic academic circles. it is reported that this delegation is the first international strategic academic delegation to come to china after the third plenary session of the 20th cpc central committee, and ross is one of the invited experts.

"i am paying close attention to the third plenary session of the 20th cpc central committee, which is about the general outline of the economy. i am paying close attention to china's macroeconomics. but i want to visit companies and cities to see what is happening in order to get more specific views. this is irreplaceable," ross said when talking about the trip.

ross's monograph "a big chess game? - analysis of china's new destiny" published in 2016 and "don't misread china's economy" published at the end of 2018 examined china's economic development from a third-party perspective and received strong response.

in his book don't misread the chinese economy, ross believes that china has achieved the greatest economic achievements in human history since the reform and opening up, from the perspectives of economic growth, living standards, the proportion of the world's population benefiting from the period of rapid economic growth, and poverty reduction achievements. these achievements benefit not only china, but also all mankind.

he is good at speaking with data: from 1978 to 2017, china's gdp grew by an average of 9.5% per year, while the world average was 2.9%, developing countries were 4.2%, and the united states was 2.6%. china's economic growth rate is faster than any other major country in the world. china is also the major economy with the fastest and longest economic growth in human history.

from the perspective of poverty reduction, he pointed out that according to the international poverty line standards defined by the world bank, from 1981 to 2017, china led 853 million people out of poverty, and china's contribution to global poverty reduction was 75%.

"not only does china's economic performance outperform the west, its economic thinking is also better than the west." ross said that there is no contradiction between china's adherence to policies with "chinese characteristics" and its actions in accordance with universal economic laws.

regarding the "new normal" of china's economy, ross believes that the success of china's economic policies is the reason why it faces new challenges. on the one hand, china is about to become a high-income economy, which will double the number of high-income people in the world. this transformation also means that china's economy has undergone fundamental changes in many aspects, such as a significant increase in urbanization, a significant expansion of medical, education and social security systems, and a decline in the proportion of consumption.

on the other hand, since the 2008 international financial crisis, economic growth in western economies has deteriorated sharply and has continued to this day. this also means that china faces a double challenge - the process of transitioning to a high-income economy coincides with the slowdown in economic growth in western economies.

the covid-19 pandemic has had a wide-ranging impact on the global economy. "the pandemic has slowed down the growth of every major economy, including china, but it has not changed the general pattern of growth," ross said. the global economy is currently recovering from the pandemic, especially the large economies of the "global south", such as china, india, indonesia, bangladesh, turkey, etc. europe has not seen a real recovery, with only about 1% growth each year, a slow growth rate. the united states has returned to its pre-pandemic growth rate, which is worse than europe, but far worse than the economies of the "global south".

in may this year, the organization for economic cooperation and development (oecd) raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2024 from 2.9% to 3.1%. in june, the world bank raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2024 to 2.6%, and predicted that china's gdp growth rate would be 4.8% in 2024. the international monetary fund (imf) predicted that the global economic growth rate in 2024 would be 3.1%, and china's gdp is expected to grow by 5%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the forecast in the april report.

"i think they've become a little more realistic in their forecasts for china," ross said.

he pointed out that china was cautious in its wording of the short-term economic growth target for the 14th five-year plan and did not set a specific number. the long-term goal for 2035 is to double the total economic volume or per capita income compared to 2020, so china's annual gdp growth rate must reach at least 4.7%. since 2020, china's annual gdp growth rate has been around 5%, both higher than this figure. "therefore, i believe china will achieve its 2035 long-term goal."

he pointed out that it is much easier to predict the medium- and long-term growth of an economy than to predict its short-term growth, because in the short term all kinds of things can happen, while in the medium and long term it is determined by the basic structural characteristics of the economy.

in october 2023, the imf's world economic outlook predicted that china's gdp growth will slow sharply - from 5.0% in 2023 to 4.2% in 2024, and to 3.4% in 2028.

ross believes that the above prediction is "groundless". two data can be used to observe economic growth, one is the proportion of fixed investment in gdp, and the other is the incremental capital output ratio (icor), which reflects the proportion of total investment required for a 1% increase in gdp to total gdp. the lower the incremental capital output ratio, the higher the investment efficiency.

he calculated based on the world development indicators data released by the world bank that china's icor is about 8, while the united states is about 10. "this means that china's investment efficiency is higher than that of the united states. china only needs to invest 8% of gdp to achieve a 1% growth, while the united states needs to invest 10% to achieve this."

ross pointed out that if china's gdp growth rate does not reach 5%, there are only two possibilities: china's icor deteriorates, or the proportion of fixed investment in gdp drops sharply. if neither of these two situations occurs, then china's economy will not slow down. according to the latest data from the world bank, china's fixed investment currently accounts for about 42% of gdp. "so what is the basis for the imf's forecast? they did not explain it in the report, and i even suspect that the people who wrote the report did not know what they were writing."

since the beginning of this year, the imf has been continuously raising its expectations for the chinese economy. in february, the imf said that it expects china's economic growth to slow to 4.6% in 2024 and to drop to around 3.5% in 2028. in july, the imf again predicted that china's gdp growth this year would be 5%.

currently, china is emphasizing the development of "new quality productivity". ross believes that according to the world bank's standards, china is currently at the top of the middle- and high-income economies. china is about to become a high-income economy in the next two to three years, which means that china must produce completely different products and increase product added value. at present, china is ahead of the united states in green energy, drones, mobile phones, electric vehicles, etc., and china will become a leader in more industries in the future.

"china is no longer a simple technology follower. people sometimes ask me, in which industries will china lead in 10 years? i say it is industries that do not exist now. this is my understanding of new quality productivity," said ross.

he noted that the communiqué of the third plenary session of the 20th cpc central committee mentioned many "highs", including high-tech, high-quality, and high-level. "from a global perspective, china is undergoing a transformation from an upper-middle-income economy to a high-income economy. according to the world bank's standards, this will take about three years, and then china will enter the first stage of becoming a high-income economy."

regarding the current problems of the chinese economy, ross wanted to emphasize the decline in corporate profitability. although china's economic growth continues to far exceed all major economies, including the united states, this does not mean that there are no problems in the chinese economy - stock market declines, weak private investment, etc. "the root cause of these problems is not insufficient consumption, but the associated impact of declining corporate profitability." he believes that this is a key issue that has not been discussed enough and should be continuously paid attention to and corresponding measures should be taken to deal with it.