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【columnist wang xiaodi】

after more than four hours of searching, ke wenzhe was finally found by the taiwan procuratorate and the anti-corruption department, and was taken away for questioning. before getting on the bus, the "abei" admired by the "little grass" seemed to be thinking about something, turned around to face the "long guns and short cannons", stated his grievances with a serious face, and hinted at the political persecution of himself and the people's party by the democratic progressive party.

it should have been a declaration of war, but this abei made it sound like a last will.

after more than four hours of searching, ke wenzhe was taken away for questioning surrounded by people.

just a few days before ke wenzhe was taken away, zheng wencan, who was detained for 47 days for corruption, raised nt$28 million in two hours in exchange for bail. the two came and went in a seamless transition.

no legitimacy? create legitimacy

the corruption scandal of ko wen-je has been brewing for a long time, and his arrest and detention are just the final culmination of the scandal. despite the scandal, in the eyes of many "little grass", ko is still the brightest white moonlight in taiwan's muddy political arena.

but whether ko wen-je is innocent has nothing to do with lai ching-te.

as a leader who assumed office with a low public support base, lai qingde was actually sitting on pins and needles. in addition, as a localist politician who seemed to be "firm in faith", lai qingde seemed to be unpopular with the united states and could never get the unreserved love and trust of americans. in this situation where political legitimacy was insufficient, centralization was the first thing lai qingde accomplished in the early days of his administration, and political infighting was an inevitable byproduct of this process.

centralization of power is the goal, political infighting is the means, and anti-corruption is the banner. they are merciless to those within the party and brutal against those outside the party.

of course, the snake is hit at its weakest point. in terms of inter-party struggles, lai qingde's knife skills are quite accurate. the advantage of the kuomintang over the democratic progressive party lies in the grassroots masses. the organizational strength is like capillaries that spread all over taiwan. this is the political legacy of the "political-criminal cooperation" of chiang kai-shek and chiang ching-kuo and lee teng-hui. therefore, the kuomintang often performs better than the democratic progressive party in local elections. in this case, the democratic progressive party's target of attack is to purge local forces. the prosecution of yan kuanheng, who was born in the yan family in taichung, is an example.

the advantage of the people's party over the dpp lies in the "democratic generation z" after the 1990s. this group does not have the inertia of voting for the blue and green parties, and their voting behavior is also erratic, and they are relatively politically apathetic. however, as an emerging political party, the organizational strength of the people's party and the star effect of ke wenzhe are highly overlapped. "ke wenzhe is the party, and the party is ke wenzhe", which means that once ke wenzhe is finished, the whole party will be buried with him. although the "democratic generation z" who have lost their mobilization system may not necessarily vote for the dpp, they will not vote for the kmt either. as long as there is no "black swan" event, the dpp can rely on its basic advantage to lock the kmt into a "loyal opposition party".

for lai qingde, compared with the elimination of the local forces that are too powerful to be eliminated, ke wenzhe, who is a political novice and full of traps, is as comfortable as driving on a night road. ke wenzhe is therefore fortunate to become another animal used by lai qingde as a sacrifice.

retreat to advance and kill them all

although he has been pinned to the ground by lai ching-te, as the leader of a party and the "watchtower of millions of taiwanese new youths", ko wen-je still tried to struggle. he adopted a tactic of "retreat to advance" and announced a three-month leave for self-reflection, which was quite similar to the attitude of chiang kai-shek when he stepped down.

compared to the noisy "resignation of the party chairman", "three-month leave" is indeed a good move. after all, eliminating ko wen-je is equivalent to digging its own grave for the people's party, and all the people will have to go hungry. this attitude can be seen from the afternoon when ko wen-je was taken away, when the people's party held an emergency meeting to strongly support ko wen-je. letting ko wen-je "take a three-month leave" is not only an explanation to the supporters of the people's party, but also an explanation to the doubters, and it also triggers the effect of "delaying tactics".

in addition, the prerequisite for "taking a three-month vacation" is the "political donation scandal," which is the easiest to handle technically among all the corruption cases involving ko wen-je. not only is the process controllable and the blame clear, it also allows the public to focus on the single event of the "political donation scandal," thereby reducing the negative impact of other cases.

at the people's party's clarification press conference on august 29, ke wenzhe appeared and led everyone to bow and apologize.

of course, as a mature politician, lai qingde naturally knows the truth that "a centipede dies but remains in place". facing ko wenzhe's brilliant plan, lai qingde's back-up plan was much simpler and more efficient - "killing all of them", not giving ko wenzhe any chance to breathe or defend himself. so taiwan's prosecutors and anti-corruption departments launched a massive investigation (did they really not find anyone after more than four hours of investigation?), and finally arrested ko wenzhe.

as ko wen-je is not a member of the democratic progressive party, he may not see the light of day unless he coughs up more than 28 million yuan this time.

a hot legacy

as ko wen-je's future is uncertain, the two major parties have begun to take over ko wen-je's political legacy - eight seats in the legislative yuan.

taiwan's "legislators" have a term of four years. although the people's party did not win any seats in this district election, it still won 8 seats in the non-district "legislatives" by relying on the extremely high party votes. at the same time, neither of the two major parties has more than half of the seats in the "legislative yuan". although the kuomintang is known as the largest party, it only has one more seat than the democratic progressive party, which makes the people's party a key minority.

regarding the work of the legislative yuan, ko wen-je originally had a "two-year clause", which means that the current non-district "legislators" would only serve for two years, and then would be replaced by those ranked 9-16 on the non-district nomination list, with the main theme of "sunshine everywhere" and "sharing the blessings together".

however, ko wen-je died before he could accomplish his mission, and the "two-year clause" is in name only. the current legislators are very likely to serve for the full four years, making this a relatively stable political force that is in a state of disarray.

for the two major parties, this is a godsend opportunity for them to gain a "majority" in the votes. for the current people's party legislators, whether through intimidation or inducement, getting them to "take up arms and defect" is the biggest consolation the two major parties can give to ko wen-je.

in this case, ko wen-je has become the bargaining chip for the dpp to threaten the people's party, and the eight seats in the legislative yuan have also become the bargaining chips for ko wen-je. if ko wen-je chooses to protect himself or the people's party wants to protect ko wen-je, then they will have to choose a "green-white alliance" in the "legislative yuan", and the result will be that the people's party will become a wing of the dpp in terms of social perception and be abandoned by the new generation. if ko wen-je or the people's party does not choose to cooperate, then the dpp will take advantage of the confusion of these eight people and try its best to buy them off and try to take in more seats than the kmt.

cooperation is a dead end, and non-cooperation is also a dead end. whether to save people or to save the party, both ends are blocked.

of course, if the people's party chooses to overturn the table and make drastic measures by abandoning ko wen-je, although it can defuse the dpp's offensive to a certain extent, without ko wen-je, the people's party's process of de-celebrityization and organizational reconstruction will be forced to be advanced.

is the people's party mentally prepared enough? i'm afraid we won't be able to find the answer in the short term.