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reporter | an jing

editor｜liu haichuan

since 2024, there have been many dramatic changes in japanese politics.

after the ruling liberal democratic party was embroiled in a "black money" scandal, japanese prime minister fumio kishida announced the dissolution of his kōikekai (kishida faction). subsequently, the largest faction of the liberal democratic party, the seiwa policy research institute (abe faction), to which former prime minister shinzo abe belonged, also announced its dissolution. now, among the six major factions of the liberal democratic party, only the second largest faction, the shikokai (aso faction), to which former prime minister taro aso belonged, has no intention of disbanding.

the liberal democratic party has been following the political line of factions since its inception. the abe faction and the aso faction were once called the real "kingmakers." the election of the president of the liberal democratic party has always been the result of a game between factions.

the shocking decision to dissolve the faction was originally a "cut-off-arms-to-survive" move by fumio kishida to save his approval rating amid the "black money" scandal. however, kishida himself was not punished for the "black money" scandal, and coupled with japan's continued inflation and the depreciation of the yen, kishida's cabinet approval rating once fell to 15.5%.

support for kishida is also declining within the ldp, with bigwigs including taro aso unwilling to continue supporting kishida. on august 14, kishida announced that he would not participate in the ldp presidential election in september. after kishida withdraws, the new president of the ldp will become the new prime minister of japan.

kishida's concession and the changes in the ldp factions made the ldp presidential election on september 27th unprecedentedly lively.

as of august 29, the number of candidates who intend to run for the presidential election has reached 12. in previous presidential elections, the number of candidates has never exceeded 5. former ldp secretary-general and former defense minister shigeru ishiba, former minister of economic security takayuki kobayashi, and current minister of digital affairs taro kono have announced their candidacy.

shinjiro koizumi, son of former environment minister and former prime minister junichiro koizumi, will formally announce his candidacy on september 6, chief cabinet secretary yoshimasa hayashi will announce his candidacy on september 3, and economic security minister sanae takaichi plans to announce her candidacy on september 9.

other candidates who are interested in running but have not yet been officially announced include foreign minister yoko kamikawa, former minister of internal affairs and communications seiko noda, and ldp secretary-general toshimitsu motegi. yoko kamikawa, sanae takaichi, and seiko noda are all women, and the latter two participated in the 2021 presidential election. shinjiro koizumi and takayuki kobayashi are both under 50 years old, making them rare young representatives in the ldp presidential election.

with various parties joining the race, the ldp presidential election in september will be a "big fight". researchers pointed out that although most factions have disbanded, factional politics still plays an important role in the ldp, and who will eventually become president will be influenced by factional power.

in addition, japan originally planned to hold elections for the house of representatives and the senate next year. there have been calls within the liberal democratic party to bring the house of representatives election forward to october this year. the results of the house of representatives election will determine whether the new japanese prime minister will become a "short-lived" prime minister again.

disbandment of factions leads to "big fight"

to participate in the ldp presidential election, a candidate needs to be recommended by at least 20 members of parliament. da zhigang, a researcher at the northeast asian institute of the heilongjiang academy of social sciences, told jiemian news that the number of people interested in participating in the presidential election this year has reached a historical high, which is inseparable from the dissolution of most factions of the ldp.

da zhigang pointed out that in previous presidential elections, each faction would nominate its own candidate. whether the candidate can be recognized by other factions requires coordination by the leaders of each faction. members of each faction will stick together when recommending candidates, and cannot recommend candidates who are opposed to their own faction or have a bad relationship with them. when a candidate of one faction becomes prime minister, the faction allied with that faction will become the mainstream faction, and the non-mainstream faction will be marginalized.

there is also a seniority system among factions. the president of the liberal democratic party is usually over 60 years old, and there are few young candidates. generally, the incumbent prime minister will participate in the presidential election. once the prime minister participates in the election, the cabinet members will not participate in the election out of respect for the prime minister.

"but this year, there are no restrictions, and everyone can show their talents." da zhigang said that this year, as long as a candidate has the support of 20 lawmakers, he can run for election. therefore, among those interested in running for election are cabinet members such as hayashi yoshimasa and kamikawa yoko, as well as ldp senior officials such as motegi toshimitsu, and young people such as koizumi shinjiro and kobayashi takayuki. "this was unimaginable in the past."

liu jiangyong, a professor at the department of international relations at tsinghua university, pointed out to interface news that some of the candidates preparing to participate in the presidential election this year are not aiming to win the presidency, but to demonstrate their political presence and prepare for forming another policy group in the future and next year's house of representatives and senate elections.

the abe faction has a profound influence in the ldp, and its history can be traced back to abe's maternal grandfather, nobusuke kishi, who helped found the democratic party of japan, which was formed in 1955 by the merger of the democratic party and the liberal party of japan.

however, there are no senior members of the abe faction on the list of candidates who intend to run in the ldp presidential election in september. the "black money" scandal that prompted kishida fumio to disband his faction has dealt the biggest blow to the abe faction.

in the "black money" scandal, various factions of the liberal democratic party were accused of issuing sales targets to members of each faction to sell party vouchers for political fundraising. funds exceeding the sales targets were returned to members of the party in the form of "kickbacks", which were not included in the income and expenditure reports and became unregulated secret funds.

although members of the abe faction, kishida faction, and nikai faction were all prosecuted, the abe faction was the most involved. an internal investigation by the liberal democratic party showed that the vast majority of the nearly 100 abe faction members received "kickbacks." the abe faction had unrecorded funds of 650 million yen (about 31.89 million yuan) in five years. members of the faction were arrested, members of the abe faction in the kishida cabinet resigned, and many elders of the faction were advised to leave the party.

members of the abe faction said in an interview with the yomiuri shimbun that now is not the time to consider the presidential election, and that members are more concerned about whether they can retain their seats in the house of representatives election.

the faction is scattered in form but not in spirit

compared with public support, whether a candidate can win the ldp presidential election depends mainly on the views within the ldp. in the election, ldp members in the diet and ldp members nationwide voted together, with 367 votes from members of the diet and 367 votes from party members. the candidate who received more than half of the votes directly won.

if no candidate receives more than half of the votes, the top two candidates will advance to the second round. in the second round, the number of votes of members of parliament will remain at 367, while the number of local votes will be 47, with each prefecture accounting for one vote. the position of the members of parliament becomes crucial.

in the 2021 liberal democratic party presidential election, the current digital minister taro kono and fumio kishida entered the second round. taro kono is more popular among the grassroots of the liberal democratic party and received more votes than fumio kishida in the first round of voting. but in the second round of voting, kishida was endorsed by the abe faction and the nikai faction, which had 99 and 83 members of parliament respectively at the time. under the manipulation of factional politics, kishida was elected president of the liberal democratic party.

the number of candidates this year is expected to hit a new high. with the votes dispersed, it will be difficult for a candidate to win more than half of the votes in the first round of voting. once the voting enters the second round, whether factional politics will become the decisive factor again will be the main focus.

the liberal democratic party is a political party formed by the merger of two conservative parties, the liberal party and the democratic party. different factions emerged as soon as the party was established.

the leaders of the liberal party and the democratic party - yoshida shigeru, taro aso's maternal grandfather, and ichiro hatoyama, the grandfather of former japanese prime minister yukio hatoyama, are famous for their political differences. ichiro hatoyama was originally the founder of the liberal party. after breaking up with yoshida shigeru, he joined forces with nobusuke kishi and others to establish the democratic party.

kishida is not the first ldp prime minister to dissolve factions. since its founding, the ldp has tried to restore its image by dissolving factions many times when it encountered crises.

in 1976, the us aircraft manufacturer lockheed martin was exposed to bribe senior executives including former japanese prime minister kakuei tanaka in order to open up the japanese market. as a result, tanaka withdrew from the liberal democratic party. in order to reform the liberal democratic party, fukuda takeo announced the dissolution of factions after becoming prime minister in 1977. however, after fukuda takeo stepped down, the factions quickly reorganized, and fukuda himself established the "seiwa policy research institute" in 1979, which later became the abe faction.

a similar situation also occurred in the recruit bribery case in 1988. in order to develop real estate business, the japanese recruit company bribed the senior officials of the liberal democratic party. as a result, the then prime minister noboru takeshita stepped down, and the liberal democratic party once again proposed to abolish factions.

liu jiangyong said that for the liberal democratic party, an important role of this presidential election is to change the image of the liberal democratic party after the "black money" scandal and not rely on factions to conduct elections. when taro kono announced his candidacy, he promised to carry out political reforms and rebuild the public's trust in the liberal democratic party.

but taro kono, who promised reform, is from the aso faction, which has not yet disbanded. the aso faction has announced its support for taro kono. liu jiangyong pointed out that in this context, taro kono's promise is difficult to justify. the apparent dissolution of the ldp factions does not mean the end of factional politics, "but the beginning of a new division." once the vote enters the second round, whether members of parliament support the relevant candidates "is still related to the past interpersonal relationships and political positions within the factions."

after most factions of the liberal democratic party were dissolved, the aso faction with 54 members, the group headed by former japanese prime minister yoshihide suga, and the kishida faction, which was dissolved but its members still cooperated, were called the new "kingmakers" by the japanese media.

da zhigang added that although the abe faction did not participate in this presidential election, the influence of abe faction members on the election "cannot be underestimated." former minister of economic security takayuki kobayashi, who announced his candidacy, received support from abe faction lawmakers.

he pointed out that the main impact of disbanding the faction on the abe faction is that it is impossible to take unified action, and members may support different candidates. currently, some abe faction members support kobayashi takayuki, while others support takaichi sanae and koizumi shinjiro.

da zhigang said that factional politics is not unique to the liberal democratic party. opposition parties such as the constitutional democratic party also have different factions. after world war ii, factional politics gradually developed in japan and played an important role in japan's political landscape. he pointed out that the dissolution of the liberal democratic party's factions is only a superficial phenomenon. the genes still exist. factions may appear in different forms in the future, but "the effect is the same as changing the soup."

who has a better chance of winning?

an august poll conducted by five major japanese media outlets, including kyodo news, asahi shimbun and the nihon keizai shimbun, showed that shinjiro koizumi and shigeru ishiba were the candidates with the highest support rates. other candidates with high support rates include sanae takaichi, taro kono, takayuki kobayashi and yoko kamikawa.

shinjiro koizumi, 43, is the son of former japanese prime minister junichiro koizumi and the youngest candidate in the ldp presidential election. he holds a master's degree in political science from columbia university and is also a researcher at the institute for strategic and international studies.

when junichiro koizumi announced his retirement from politics in 2008, he named shinjiro koizumi as his successor. when junichiro koizumi was the prime minister of japan, he insisted on visiting the yasukuni shrine every year, which triggered protests from china and south korea. shinjiro koizumi also followed in his father's footsteps and visited the yasukuni shrine many times.

shinjiro koizumi's advantage is that he is young and can help the liberal democratic party create a new image. he is well-known among the japanese people, and his wife is the popular japanese anchor takigawa masami, which also adds to his star aura. however, he has little political experience and lacks clear policy proposals. his speech at the un climate summit was criticized as meaningless.

in the ldp, koizumi has a close relationship with former prime minister yoshihide suga. some abe faction members also support koizumi, and koizumi's father already has a wide network of connections.

ishiba shigeru, 67, is a veteran politician of the liberal democratic party and has participated in four presidential elections. however, ishiba shigeru did not receive the support of the mainstream faction of the liberal democratic party. he and abe have different political views and the two have personal grudges.

ishiba shigeru is more radical than abe on the issue of constitutional amendment, advocating the removal of article 9, paragraph 2 of japan's peace constitution, which stipulates that japan does not maintain combat capability. on china, ishiba shigeru refuted the "china threat theory" at the 6th beijing-tokyo forum in 2010. however, in recent years, he has shown a tough attitude and led a number of japanese lawmakers to visit taiwan, china in august.

taro kono, 61, is good at using social media and is known as an "internet celebrity" politician. sanae takaichi, who was once supported by abe, is an extreme right-wing politician who has publicly attacked china. takayuki kobayashi, 49, is a new generation of ldp politicians like shinjiro koizumi, but he is not as famous as the latter and lacks connections within the ldp.

as for which candidate has a better chance of winning the ldp presidency, da zhigang believes that it depends on what kind of image the ldp wants to create. if it is from the perspective of stability, veteran politicians like ldp secretary-general motegi toshimitsu have more advantages.

if the ldp wants to achieve a transition between the old and the new, let the people see a new face, and put forward a candidate with national influence to help the subsequent parliamentary elections, then koizumi shinjiro and kobayashi takayuki have more advantages. between the two, da zhigang predicts that koizumi shinjiro is more likely to win. however, since the disbanded factions no longer have a unified supporter, and the candidates have not yet announced their policy platforms, it is difficult to determine the final winner.

policy continuation?

although the outcome of this ldp presidential election is unpredictable, liu jiangyong pointed out that no matter who becomes president, the ldp will still be in power and its basic policies will not change.

he said that the national security strategy adopted by the kishida cabinet determined japan's diplomatic and security policies for the next 10 years. the document positioned china as "the greatest strategic challenge ever faced", wrote that japan would have "counterattack capabilities" and confirmed that japan would increase its defense spending. "the new ldp president will continue the relevant strategy after taking office, and it is unlikely that he will fundamentally change his course," liu jiangyong said.

he mentioned that the "indo-pacific strategy" launched during the period of former us president donald trump was originally the "free and open indo-pacific strategy" proposed by abe in 2016. liu jiangyong predicted that after the new japanese prime minister takes office, there will be similar "pacing" moves in the future.

economically, japan's new prime minister will face the problems of persistent inflation and raising real incomes that kishida failed to solve. when kishida first came to power, he proposed the concept of "new capitalism" to replace abenomics.

kishida believes that neoliberal policies have led to a widening gap between the rich and the poor, and the goal of "new capitalism" is to increase the real income of the people. however, as of may this year, due to rising prices, japan's real wages have fallen for 26 consecutive months.

liu jiangyong pointed out that kishida basically continued abenomics, devaluing the yen through quantitative easing to increase japan's export competitiveness. however, the fed's continuous interest rate hikes have caused the yen to depreciate further. since japan relies heavily on imports for energy and food, the continued depreciation of the yen has also pushed up domestic prices in japan.

shigeru ishiba, who is running for the presidency, has expressed support for the bank of japan to gradually raise interest rates to reduce the cost of importing goods. toshimitsu motegi and taro kono have also expressed similar views, while sanae takaichi supports monetary easing.

before considering long-term policies, whether the new ldp president can secure the position of prime minister depends on the parliamentary election. there are already calls within the ldp to dissolve the house of representatives after the presidential election and hold an early house of representatives election in october.

currently, the ldp controls both the house of representatives and the senate. if the ldp fails to win more than half of the seats in the house of representatives election, the new ldp president is likely to become a "short-lived" prime minister.