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how confident is the us indo-pacific commander in “escorting philippine ships”?

2024-08-30

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image caption: the u.s. navy's 15th destroyer squadron conducts joint exercises with the japan self-defense forces.
on august 27, samuel paparo, commander of the u.s. indo-pacific command, claimed that u.s. ships "can escort philippine ships on supply missions in the south china sea," and called it a "perfectly reasonable choice." the associated press commented that paparo's remarks allowed the outside world to understand how he, as the highest-ranking u.s. military commander stationed outside the united states, views "military actions that could lead to direct conflict between the united states and china." the global times reporter noted that since the u.s. indo-pacific command was renamed in 2018, the three commanders have all spoken out against china, but the various challenges faced by the indo-pacific command have long made it difficult for them to cope.
the pacific fleet has a special status
according to the associated press, the indo-pacific command is headquartered in hawaii. its predecessor, the pacific command, is the earliest, largest and most extensive joint operations command of the us military. it has about 370,000 soldiers and civilian personnel, and is under the jurisdiction of six major armed forces: the navy, air force, army, marine corps, space force and coast guard. its area of ​​responsibility extends from the west coast of the united states to western india, and its total area accounts for about half of the earth's surface area.
at the end of 2017, then-us president trump proposed the "indo-pacific strategy" at the apec meeting as the us government's strategy for the region west of the pacific, replacing the term "asia-pacific" and the "re-engagement with asia-pacific" strategy during former president obama's term. the outside world believes that the "indo-pacific strategy" is a concept aimed at china and put forward to balance china's influence in the asia-pacific region. in response to the "indo-pacific strategy", on may 30, 2018, then-us secretary of defense mattis announced that the pacific command was renamed the indo-pacific command (indo-pacific command). philip davidson, former commander of the us navy fleet command, served as the first commander of the indo-pacific command.
it is worth mentioning that the us navy pacific fleet is the most powerful us military force in the indo-pacific region. it is composed of the third fleet (eastern pacific) and the seventh fleet (western pacific). it currently has about 200 ships, including six aircraft carriers, including the carl vinson, nimitz, reagan, washington, roosevelt and lincoln, and nearly 1,100 combat aircraft. it is for this reason that the three commanders of the us indo-pacific command since its name change are not only all from the navy, but also have experience in senior positions in the pacific fleet: davidson once served as assistant commander of the pacific fleet, and aquilino and paparo, who succeeded him, simply took over the post of commander of the indo-pacific command from the position of commander of the pacific fleet.
in addition, the u.s. pacific air force command is one of the two major overseas commands of the u.s. air force, with about 400 combat aircraft of various types, including advanced fighters such as the f-22, f-35 and f-15ex. the u.s. pacific marine corps, mainly composed of the first expeditionary force stationed at camp pendleton, california and the third expeditionary force stationed in okinawa, japan, is the vanguard of the u.s. intervention in the indo-pacific region.
they have shown toughness to china
paparo's provocative remarks on the south china sea issue were considered by foreign media to be "likely to anger china." looking back at the remarks made by successive us indo-pacific command commanders, it can be found that in the current us political atmosphere, they have all spoken out against china.
for example, davidson publicly declared at the ceremony of taking office as the commander of the indo-pacific command in 2018 that "for the united states, four of the five most important threats in the world (china, iran, north korea, russia, and extremism) are in the indo-pacific region", and the us troops deployed at the forefront of the indo-pacific and the rotational forces are insufficient, and the force structure and deployment are "not enough to deal with the threats in the indo-pacific region". he also claimed that the us military should continue to be committed to equipping a new generation of weapons, such as long-range hypersonic weapons. the outside world believes that davidson's position is tougher than harry harris, the former commander of the pacific command, who was previously regarded as a "hawkish" figure in the us military's asia-pacific policy. in 2021, davidson declared at a congressional hearing that "the people's liberation army will retake taiwan by force within the next six years." this is the "davidson time window" that had a great influence on the us military later.
aquilino, who succeeded davidson as the commander of the indo-pacific command in 2021, also repeatedly advocated during his tenure that "china is the only country with the potential, strength and intention to subvert the international order." he once expressed his agreement that the united states needs to increase investment in the indo-pacific region, including promoting the "pacific deterrence initiative" to "challenge china's influence." on the eve of his resignation as the commander of the indo-pacific command, aquilino once again exaggerated the "china threat theory" in an interview with the financial times, saying that china is implementing a "boiling frog in warm water" strategy in the indo-pacific region, gradually expanding the tense atmosphere, paralyzing the americans, and then suddenly launching real military operations.
on may 3 this year, paparo replaced the retired aquilino as the commander of the indo-pacific command, and his controversial remarks continued. he said during the shangri-la dialogue in singapore right after taking office that if the pla fleet crossed the taiwan strait to "invade" taiwan, the us military would implement a strategy called "hellscape", deploying thousands of unmanned submarines, unmanned surface ships and unmanned aircraft to buy time for taiwan, the united states and their partner forces to launch a full-scale counterattack.
“a lot of talk, little action”
chinese experts interviewed by the global times said that in recent years, senior pentagon officials, including the main generals of the indo-pacific command, have repeatedly advocated the "china threat theory" to cater to the domestic political atmosphere in the united states and seek support for their promotion, and to win more congressional funding. but a closer look at these remarks reveals that the u.s. military has long been "powerless" in the indo-pacific region, and in many cases "talks a lot but does little".
for example, before leaving office in march this year, aquilino stated at a hearing of the house armed services committee that since he took office as the commander of the indo-pacific command in april 2021, he has formulated a "seize the initiative" strategy as a method and path for the indo-pacific command to implement the national defense strategy, but "due to the delayed delivery of military infrastructure, advanced capabilities and resources, the indo-pacific command has been unable to continue to effectively project and maintain troop operations in the western pacific." he also admitted that during his three-year tenure as the commander of the indo-pacific command, he only completed 12 of the more than 200 military infrastructure projects, and "there are still 47 high-priority construction projects that require funding."
reuters noted that although paparo claimed that the us warships escorting the philippine ships carrying out supply missions in the south china sea was a "perfectly reasonable choice", he later said, "i meant it should be within the scope of consultation (between the two sides)", and paparo did not specify what kind of ships would be used to carry out this mission. experts said that paparo's relevant statement actually exceeded the authority of the commander of the theater command.
in fact, the current situation of the us pacific fleet is not ideal. since most of the ships were built during the cold war, they are facing the difficulties of aging hulls and poor maintenance, which seriously affects their daily attendance rate. if the us navy wants to perform "escort missions" in the south china sea, the most active us warships in the south china sea are from the 15th destroyer squadron stationed in japan and the littoral combat ships stationed in singapore. however, of the 9 "arleigh burke" class destroyers under the 15th destroyer squadron, 6 were built before 1996; the littoral combat ships are even more famous for their constant power system failures. in addition, aircraft carriers are a symbol of deterrence for the us navy. although the pacific fleet has as many as 6 aircraft carriers, it has appeared in the "window period" in the western pacific many times in recent years when there are no aircraft carriers available. the outside world also generally questioned whether the us navy would be involved in the war for the philippines. ▲# hundreds of reviews#
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