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hezbollah launched large-scale retaliation against israel, but israel claimed it had carried out a "preemptive" strike, and both sides have different accounts of the outcome of the battle.

according to cctv news on the 27th, pentagon press secretary ryder said at a closed-door press conference held on the 26th local time that the united states did not participate in israel's "preemptive" strike against hezbollah in lebanon. the united states did provide some intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance support to israel to track the upcoming attacks by hezbollah in lebanon, but did not take any action.

the information about the conflict between hezbollah and israel is rather confusing. both sides have their own opinions. the israeli army also revised its battle record announcement. what happened behind the scenes? is this conflict a prelude to a large-scale conflict or war between the two sides? this has sparked discussions outside.

behind both sides’ claims of “victory”

first, let's look at the official information released by israel and hezbollah on the 25th. the israeli defense forces issued a statement on the 25th saying that hezbollah in lebanon had planned to launch rockets at israel, but the israeli army's preemptive air strikes on southern lebanon that morning thwarted the attack. so far, about 100 israeli warplanes have launched air strikes on thousands of hezbollah rocket launchers (allegedly 6,000) on the 25th. israeli prime minister netanyahu said that israel destroyed thousands of hezbollah rockets on the same day. lebanese military sources said that israeli warplanes and drones carried out 35 air strikes on 23 towns in lebanon that day, launching about 70 air-to-ground missiles, and israeli artillery also fired about 50 shells at 19 towns in lebanon.

after israel attacked hezbollah's targets, hezbollah began to retaliate, firing more than 320 rockets and 20 suicide drones, claiming that the attack was a retaliation for the israeli airstrike that killed its military leader shukur in the southern suburbs of beirut, the capital of lebanon, last month. hezbollah announced on the 25th that the first phase of its attack on israel was successful. this round of attacks targeted 11 targets in northern israel and the golan heights, including the meron, yof, and nafah military bases.

hassan nasrallah, the leader of lebanon's hezbollah, announced that hezbollah used drones to attack an israeli military intelligence base near tel aviv as part of a large-scale attack launched by hezbollah against israel on the morning of the 25th. nasrallah announced in a televised speech that the main target of the operation was israel's largest military intelligence base, greillot, 110 kilometers from the lebanese-israeli border. an israeli military spokesman said that the military intelligence base "was not affected." according to israeli media reports, the headquarters of israel's foreign intelligence agency "mossad" is located at the base.

judging from the current situation, the israeli army's "preemptive" strike was probably because the us military provided relevant intelligence and detected signs of large-scale activities of hezbollah armed forces, and then the israeli army took the initiative. recently, the situation in the middle east has become tense again, and the us military has also deployed troops for this purpose. this area is naturally the area where the us military intelligence system focuses on, especially the movements of iran, houthi armed forces and hezbollah armed forces. "preemptive" is also the consistent style of the israeli army. if it finds that something is wrong, it will launch an air strike before the hezbollah armed forces launch rockets, which can significantly reduce losses. however, the results of the battle initially announced by the israeli official were a bit surprising - 6,000 rocket launchers, but later the israeli official may also feel that it is too exaggerated (hezbollah armed 122mm rocket launchers are usually equipped with 20, 12 or 8 launch tubes. based on the calculation that one rocket launcher is equipped with 12 launch tubes, the israel defense forces destroyed nearly half of hezbollah armed rocket launchers in one attack), and later revised it to 600 rocket launchers. the hezbollah armed forces said that the israeli army only destroyed a few rocket launchers that had completed the launch mission.

this time, hezbollah's retaliatory action was not a disorganized counterattack after a "preemptive" attack. instead, it used rocket launchers and suicide drones at the same time. the relatively intensive rocket attacks consumed and dispersed israel's air defense system, especially the interception of the "iron dome" system, and covered the attacks of suicide drones with higher strike accuracy on several key targets. some drones successfully broke through.

according to information from all parties, some rockets and drones successfully hit israeli military targets, but the damage to the israeli army was not great. the biggest loss came from a patrol ship being hit, killing one crew member and injuring two. the israeli army said it was a mistake. according to preliminary investigations, during the attack that day, soldiers on a dvora-class patrol boat off the northern coast of israel were hit by shrapnel from an iron dome interceptor missile when at least two hezbollah drones were flying over the area.

the two sides "tacitly" cooled down the situation, but small-scale exchanges of fire will continue to occur

just when everyone thought that a large-scale conflict or even war was about to break out between israel and hezbollah, the two sides unexpectedly and "tacitly" cooled down the situation.

in his televised speech on the matter, nasrallah emphasized that the retaliatory action was successful and that the main target of the attack was an israeli intelligence base, while the attack avoided israeli civilian targets. on the other hand, he said that hezbollah hoped to avoid military escalation and that the attack was postponed to allow time for ceasefire negotiations in gaza.

israel also claimed victory in its military operations, saying that the damage caused by hezbollah's attacks was minimal. israeli foreign minister katz said on the 25th that the israeli army attacked lebanon only after discovering that hezbollah was planning to launch a large-scale attack on israel. he said israel was "exercising its right to self-defense" and "was not interested in a full-scale war."

viewed this way, both hezbollah and israel are trying to avoid dragging the entire region into a large-scale military conflict or all-out war.

this action is a warning strike for the israeli army, sending a signal to hezbollah: israel has no intention of engaging in a large-scale military conflict with hezbollah, but with the support of the us military, the israeli army has a relatively clear grasp of hezbollah's movements and still has sufficient forces to support military operations in the north. this is also an important reason why hezbollah has only dared to "piecemeal" attack israeli military targets in the past few months and has not dared to launch large-scale military strikes.

this warning also includes "exaggerating" the us military's support for israel. the israeli ministry of defense said that since the outbreak of a new round of israeli-palestinian conflict on october 7, 2023, the united states has delivered more than 50,000 tons of weapons and military equipment to israel through 500 transport planes and 107 ships. the israeli ministry of defense said that the military equipment delivered to israel by the united states includes armored vehicles, ammunition, personal protective equipment and medical equipment. it also said that this is "critical to maintaining the combat capability of the israel defense forces."

for hezbollah, israel's preemptive strike and hezbollah's subsequent counterattack were a military test. after discovering the deployment and combat readiness of the israeli army in the northern region, they had no intention of further expanding the conflict. israel is superior to hezbollah in terms of weapon quality, scale, and intelligence. it is not in hezbollah's interest to escalate the conflict with israel into a large-scale conflict or war. the main reason is that hezbollah will find it difficult to win in a conflict, and both sides will suffer losses. in addition, israeli hardliners have been seeking opportunities to completely destroy hezbollah.

therefore, this round of large-scale exchanges of fire will not lead to large-scale military conflicts or wars, and small-scale exchanges of fire between the two sides will be repeated in the future. after the large-scale exchange of fire on august 25, on the 26th, the lebanese hezbollah armed forces and the israel defense forces once again attacked each other's military targets.