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Moody's warns: Full-scale conflict would have a significant impact on Israel's sovereign credit rating

2024-08-28

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Cailian Press reported on August 28 (Editor Niu Zhanlin) On Tuesday local time, Moody's, one of the world's three major credit rating agencies, said that if a full-scale military conflict breaks out between Israel and Hezbollah or Iran, it may have a significant impact on Israel's sovereign credit rating.

"We continue to believe that current tensions will not escalate into a full-blown military conflict between the two sides, nor draw Iran into the war, and therefore will not have a significant negative impact on Israel's credit," Moody's said in a statement. "However, if the situation escalates, it may cause serious credit problems for Israeli debt issuers."

In February this year, Moody's downgraded Israel's sovereign credit rating for the first time, lowering its credit rating by one level to A2 with a "negative" outlook, citing the fact that Israel's war with Hamas has brought significant political and financial risks to the country.

In April, S&P downgraded Israel's long-term credit rating, citing geopolitical risks further exacerbated by military conflict with Iran. The long-term rating downgrade means that Israel's credit rating has been reduced from "very strong ability to meet fiscal commitments" to "strong ability to meet fiscal commitments, but somewhat vulnerable to adverse economic conditions and environmental changes."

S&P recently pointed out that while Hezbollah may not launch an all-out war, Iran may still seek a military response to the assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh in Tehran, and most likely the scope of the military response will be limited. "We estimate that the Iranian leadership is more motivated than Hezbollah to avoid a regional war that could involve Israel and the United States launching a direct military strike against Iran."