Does Lebanon's Hezbollah have a huge "missile arsenal"?
2024-08-27
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Liang Jiayuan, special correspondent of this newspaperOn the 25th, Hezbollah in Lebanon announced that it had launched a large-scale attack on Israel in retaliation for Israel's assassination of its senior commander in Beirut last month. On the same day, Hezbollah also damaged an Israeli patrol boat. Hezbollah in Lebanon is considered one of the most powerful non-state organizations in the world. So, how strong is it?There are hundreds of thousands of rockets and missilesAccording to a BBC report on the 25th, Hezbollah is one of the most militarily powerful non-state organizations in the world. Hezbollah leaders claim to have 100,000 fighters, but outside estimates are between 20,000 and 50,000. Many of them are well-trained and experienced, having participated in the Syrian civil war. According to the report, according to data from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a US think tank, Hezbollah has 120,000 to 200,000 rockets and missiles, but most of its arsenal consists of small, unguided rocket launchers.Reuters reported on the 25th that according to the CIA's World Factbook, Hezbollah in Lebanon has more than 150,000 missiles and rockets. Hezbollah said that their rockets can hit all areas of Israel. Most of them are unguided, but there are also some precision-guided missiles, drones and anti-tank missiles, anti-aircraft missiles and anti-ship missiles. Many foreign media claimed that many of its weapons came directly or indirectly from Iran and other countries.Precision strike capability far exceeds that of HamasAlthough Hamas has fired a large number of rockets at Israel before, most of them were unguided homemade rockets. In contrast, Hezbollah’s rockets and missiles are not only more numerous, but also more accurate and powerful. According to Reuters, unguided rockets made up the majority of Hezbollah’s arsenal during the 2006 conflict with Israel, when the group fired about 4,000 rockets at Israel - mainly Katyusha rockets with a range of 30 kilometers. Hezbollah leader Nasrallah said that the biggest change in Hezbollah’s arsenal since 2006 has been the expansion of its precision guidance system, and the group has the ability to modify rockets with guidance systems in Lebanon.Reuters said that Hezbollah has Iranian rocket models including "Thunder", "Dawn" and "Shock", which have more powerful payloads and longer ranges than "Katyusha". Since October last year, Hezbollah has launched rockets including "Katyusha" and "Volcano" at Israel during the Gaza conflict. The Iranian-made "Farak-2" rocket was first used in June and can carry a larger warhead than the previously used "Farak-1".In addition to longer-range rockets and missiles, Hezbollah has a variety of tactical missiles. Reuters said Hezbollah used anti-tank missiles extensively in the 2006 conflict and has deployed them again, including the Russian-made Kornet anti-tank missile. It also uses an Iranian-made anti-tank missile that can attack top targets, according to Arab media reports.Hezbollah also has some anti-ship capabilities. Hezbollah first demonstrated that it had anti-ship missiles in 2006, when a missile hit an Israeli warship 16 kilometers from the coast, killing four Israeli personnel and damaging the ship. It is reported that since the 2006 conflict, Hezbollah has purchased Russian-made supersonic anti-ship missiles with a range of 300 kilometers. Hezbollah has not yet confirmed that it has such weapons. On the 25th, Israel admitted that its naval ships were attacked by Hezbollah in Lebanon, resulting in the death of an Israeli naval soldier and the injury of two others. According to the preliminary investigation of the Israel Defense Forces, a soldier on a "Dvora" class patrol boat was hit by shrapnel from a missile intercepted by the "Iron Dome" air defense system that day.There is a big gap with IsraelHezbollah also has a large number of drones and cruise missiles. Hezbollah has used suicide drones to launch multiple attacks on Israel and has released images of bases deep inside Israel taken by its drones, indicating that its drones are capable of infiltrating Israel without being detected by Israel. According to Reuters, Hezbollah's drone arsenal includes multiple locally assembled models that are cheap and relatively easy to produce.However, Hezbollah is still at a clear disadvantage compared to Israel. According to US media reports, the Israel Defense Forces consists of about 173,000 active soldiers and has called up another 300,000 reservists. The IDF's arsenal includes about 2,200 tanks, mainly Merkavas, in addition to about 300 towed artillery pieces, 650 self-propelled artillery pieces and 300 rocket launcher systems (such as the US M270 multiple rocket system).The Israeli Air Force is considered the most powerful in the region and has advanced aircraft, including F-15, F-16 fighter jets and F-35 stealth aircraft obtained from the United States.Chinese military expert Zhang Xuefeng said that Hezbollah is still far behind the IDF in general. Hezbollah has almost no air power and its air defense is also weak, which makes it vulnerable to one-way attacks from the Israeli Air Force. However, if Israel is ready to launch a large-scale ground battle with Hezbollah, it will indeed face a more difficult situation than the Gaza War.
