The conflict between Lebanon and Israel has suddenly escalated! Gaza ceasefire negotiations have become more uncertain
2024-08-26
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On August 25th local time, the situation between Israel and Lebanon suddenly escalated.
Lebanon's Hezbollah announced that it launched a large-scale attack on Israel in the early hours of the morning. The organization fired more than 300 rockets that day, hitting 11 Israeli military targets.
The Israeli military said that after detecting the possibility of an attack, it launched a "preemptive" strike against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. On the same day, many places in southern Lebanon were hit by heavy air strikes by the Israeli army, which was the most intense air strike carried out by the Israeli army since the beginning of the Lebanese-Israeli conflict at the end of last year.
In response, Lebanon's Hezbollah issued a statement saying that Israel's claims were "groundless and contradictory to the facts."
Screenshot of NBC report
Wei Dongxu, editor-in-chief of Global Military Report, Global Information Broadcast of China Central Radio and TelevisionAnalysts believe that Israel was able to take the so-called "preemptive" action because it had relevant intelligence.
Hezbollah in Lebanon is likely planning to launch a medium-sized attack, using hundreds of rockets and dozens of suicide drones to target targets, especially military facilities, in areas adjacent to Israel.
Israel may have obtained relevant intelligence in advance and took the initiative to weaken Hezbollah's firepower. This also shows that Israel has been monitoring Hezbollah's military movements and can obtain accurate intelligence.
Israel's airstrikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon were large-scale, but they did not completely suppress the other side. This is because Hezbollah in Lebanon has been preparing for a long time and has built relatively complete tunnels and military fortifications hidden in the mountains, which have strong evasion and concealment capabilities and effectively protect the combat forces.
It remains to be seen whether the scale of subsequent attacks by both sides will further escalate or expand.
Screenshot of the Guardian report
Li Zixin, Assistant Researcher at China Institute of International StudiesIn an interview with the CCTV Global News reporter, he analyzed that the conflict of interests between Lebanon and Israel was both expected by all parties and a relatively dangerous situation.
Since June this year, the situation in the Lebanese-Israeli border area has been highly tense, and the two sides have been engaged in military conflicts. It can be said that before today's conflict, both sides had been objectively prepared for a full-scale conflict.
Israel is taking the initiative this time, hoping to inflict heavy damage on Hezbollah in Lebanon in one fell swoop, and further actions are not ruled out.
Lebanon's Hezbollah has made it clear that this retaliation is only the first phase, and there will most likely be actions in the second phase. The scale and intensity of future actions are still unknown.
If a full-scale war breaks out between Israel and Lebanon, the probability of Iran getting involved will increase. This is because the significance of Lebanon's Hezbollah to Iran is different from that of Hamas. Hezbollah is Iran's most important ally in the "Arc of Resistance" in the region, and Iran will not sit idly by and watch Hezbollah being severely weakened. Once Iran is defeated, the probability of the United States getting involved will increase significantly.
Screenshot of the New York Times report
Lebanon and Israel launched large-scale attacks on each other just as ceasefire talks in Gaza were being held again in Cairo.
Li Zixin further analyzed that the escalation of the situation between Lebanon and Israel has increased the uncertainty of the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza.
Currently, the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza are at a critical juncture, and the negotiations between the parties on the control of the Philadelphia Corridor are still in a tense period. Some people believe that Hezbollah's plan to launch military retaliation against Israel at this time is to exert more pressure and force Israel to make certain compromises in the ceasefire negotiations.
There is also a view that hardliners on both sides of Israel and Lebanon hope to break the possibility of a ceasefire through sudden military action.
In any case, the current sudden military action has had a very negative impact on the political negotiation approach to resolve the current Gaza conflict. The last window for a ceasefire in the Gaza conflict may soon close.
Screenshot of Deutsche Welle report
