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Nvidia will hand over the "most important technology financial report in recent years" next week. Can it burst the "AI bubble theory"?

2024-08-24

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"Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily" August 24th After the market close on August 28th, Eastern Time,NvidiaThe second quarter results for fiscal year 2025 will be announced soon.

Analysts surveyed by Fact expectNvidia's second-quarter sales are expected to reach $28.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 112%Analyst expectations compiled by Visible Alpha show that Nvidia's revenue will grow to $28.84 billion this quarter; net income is expected to more than double from the same period last year to $14.95 billion.

In the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, Nvidia's data center revenue reached $22.6 billion.Analysts expect data center revenue to hit a record high of $25.19 billion in the second quarter, with sales more than doubling from the same period last year.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, one of Wall Street's most influential technology bulls, said in a recent report:He called Nvidia's upcoming earnings report "the most important tech earnings report in recent years" - "We think next week will be the most important week for the stock market this year and possibly the most important week on Wall Street in many years."

Prior to this, every financial report released by Nvidia since this round of AI boom has sent its stock price to a new high. This time, Ives also gave a similarly optimistic expectation, "Our focus is on the development of artificial intelligence and the technological winners of the Fourth Industrial Revolution... The momentum for the rise of technology stocks is ready," and he predicted that Nvidia will achieve another success next week.

He is not the only one to offer a positive outlook.

This weekGoldman SachsAnalyst Toshiya Hari also expressed optimism about Nvidia's earnings report, noting that Nvidia will continue to maintain its strong position in AI and accelerated computing.

Hari believes that the demand for AI infrastructure such as GPUs will remain strong. Recently, there have been some optimistic signs in the industry, such as the second quarter.TSMCHPC business accounted for more than half of total revenue for the first time, and AMD once again raised its full-year forecast for AI accelerator revenue. In addition, Nvidia has a huge customer base. Although there was news of delayed shipment of Blackwell series GPUs, Hari believes that the impact is not significant.

Analysts from Raymond James, KeyBanc and other companies also said recently that despite news of the delay in the release of the Blackwell chip, they still believe that Nvidia will deliver a strong financial report.

More than 95% of analysts tracked by Visible Alpha gave the stock a "buy" rating, with a consensus target price of $144.83 - which is still nearly 12% higher than Nvidia's latest closing price. On August 23, Eastern Time, Nvidia closed up 4.55%, with the latest share price of $129.37, and has rebounded more than 20% since August 5.

Although many analysts have given optimistic expectations recently, it is undeniable that the doubt that "investing in AI is a bubble with a return rate that is difficult to meet expectations" is still difficult to dispel.

Barclays analysts also warned thatNvidia's earnings report could be a "reality test" for the overall market, especially the technology sector. If Nvidia's latest earnings report fails to exceed expectations again and raise earnings forecasts, it may disappoint investors and have a broader impact on the entire market.

As the head of NVIDIA,Huang Renxun has sold off his Nvidia stake at a high level several times. It is estimated that he has cashed out at least $578 million from June to August.Some American media also joked that the fate of the next technology bull market may be in the hands of Huang Renxun. Let us wait and see what kind of performance Nvidia can deliver next week.

(Sci-Tech Innovation Board Daily)