International Observation | Kursk struggle continues, Russia-Ukraine peace talks are unlikely to start in the short term
2024-08-23
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Moscow, August 22 (Xinhua) -- Ukrainian troops have raided Kursk Oblast on Russia's southwestern border for more than half a month, and there is no sign of easing the conflict between the two sides in the region. At the same time, the struggle between Russia and Ukraine in other directions remains fierce and stalemate.
Analysts believe that the Ukrainian army's operations in Kursk Oblast have made some progress, but have not fully achieved their goals. The Russian army is strengthening its defenses and maintaining the intensity of operations in other areas. Given that neither Russia nor Ukraine has taken substantive measures to ease the situation, the prospects for peace talks between the two sides in the short term remain slim.
Kursk direction in wrestling
Ukrainian President Zelensky said on the 19th that the Ukrainian army controlled more than 1,250 square kilometers of land in Kursk Oblast, covering 92 settlements. The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Sersky, reported on the same day that the Ukrainian army was achieving its goals in the direction of Kursk. According to the Ukrainian military, since the 16th, Ukraine has attacked two bridges on the Seym River in Kursk Oblast, which will affect the logistics supply of the Russian army. It was also reported that the third bridge on the Seym River was destroyed on the 18th.
On the 20th, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the formation of three army groups, namely "Kursk", "Belgorod" and "Bryansk", to protect the territory and people of these three regions. According to the website of the British weekly "Economist", the Russian army has mobilized well-trained troops to reinforce the Kursk direction, and the losses of the Ukrainian army are increasing.
On August 13, in Kursk, Russia, residents from the Russian-Ukrainian border area lined up to receive relief supplies. Xinhua News AgencyThe Russian Ministry of Defense said on the 20th that the Russian army continued to repel the Ukrainian army's attacks on multiple settlements in Kursk Oblast on the southern border of the state. Russian aviation and artillery forces also attacked Ukrainian military personnel and equipment in Kursk Oblast and Ukrainian military reserve forces in Sumy Oblast in northern Ukraine. In the battle in Kursk Oblast, the Ukrainian army has lost more than 4,130 people and 58 tanks. Apti Araudinov, deputy director of the Military and Political General Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces, also said on a TV program that the Ukrainian army was blocked throughout Kursk Oblast, and its logistics support routes were also attacked by the Russian army. The Russian army is fighting for settlements controlled by the Ukrainian army.
Analysts believe that the Ukrainian army is making some progress in the Kursk direction, but has not achieved all its goals. Russian political scientist Sergei Markov believes that the Ukrainian army has achieved "results" such as boosting the morale of the Ukrainian army and the people in the country in its operations in the Kursk direction, but the Ukrainian army has not achieved its goals such as trying to force some Russian troops to withdraw from the Donbas region. Russian military analyst Vladimir Yelanosyan also said that although the Ukrainian army actively sought to achieve tactical goals in the Kursk direction, the Russian army did not transfer troops from the Donbas direction to the Kursk direction as the Ukrainian side had envisioned.
Conflicts are also raging in other areas
The situation in Kursk Oblast shows no signs of easing recently, and the struggle between Russia and Ukraine in other regions and directions is also fierce and stalemate. Analysts believe that the Russian army is maintaining the intensity of operations in other directions to ease the pressure in the Kursk direction.
Zelensky said on the 19th that the cities of Pokrovsk and Toretsk in the Donetsk region and the surrounding areas are under fierce attack by the Russian army. The Russian Ministry of Defense said on the 20th that the Russian army has occupied more advantageous positions in many areas such as Donbass and Zaporizhia, and controlled Novgorodskoye, one of the largest settlements in Toretsk in the Donetsk region and an important logistics hub.
Russian military expert Vasily Kashin said that although the Ukrainian army quickly occupied some areas in the Kursk region that lacked fortifications and logistical support routes in the early stages of the operation, the Ukrainian army had an obvious disadvantage in air defense. In order to maintain the results in the Kursk direction, it had to withdraw its troops from other areas such as Donbas, making the situation in Donbas and other places more unfavorable to Ukraine.
Ukrainian military expert Vladislav Seleznev said that the Ukrainian army's action in Kursk is very important and will cause "reputational damage" to Russia. He also said that the Russian army will not abandon its action plan in eastern Ukraine in order to control the entire Kursk region in a short period of time.
Peace talks are unlikely to start in the short term
Analysts pointed out that the current expansion and escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has further reduced the possibility of peace talks between the two sides in the short term.
The picture shows a bus carrying Ukrainian armed personnel leaving Mariupol on May 20, 2022. Photo by Victor, Xinhua News AgencyAccording to a report by RIA Novosti on the 19th, Russian presidential aide Ushakov told the media that Russia would not hold talks with Ukraine at this stage. He also stressed that President Putin's previous initiative to resolve the Ukrainian crisis has not been canceled, and how the situation will develop in the future depends on the battlefield situation, including the battlefield situation in the Kursk direction.
On the same day, Zelensky said that the Ukrainian army's "active defense operations" on Russian territory were the "most effective countermeasure" and were complicating the situation in Russia. He also said that Russian military bases, military airports, logistics support facilities and other facilities were "legitimate targets" for the Ukrainian army, and that the Ukrainian army needed more long-range weapons to protect Ukraine from Russian missiles and guided air bombs and reduce pressure on the front line.
Analysts believe that the Ukrainian army's raid on Kursk Oblast has not promoted the Russia-Ukraine peace talks, and it is not clear whether the attack will bring "lasting bargaining chips" to Ukraine.
Zelensky also called on Western partners to "make up their minds in sync" with Ukraine to lift restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western weapons to attack Russian territory. Analysts worry that this move may delay and further escalate the conflict.
