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As the spillover effects of developed economies' policies weaken and my country's macroeconomic policy implementation is strengthened, the RMB exchange rate continues to rise. Recently, both the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar have risen above 7.2. From August 1 to 12, the cumulative increases were 0.6% and 0.7% respectively, and the pressure on the RMB exchange rate has been further reduced.

In recent years, the RMB exchange rate has achieved equilibrium and stability in dynamic changes. Experts said that since the "8.11" exchange rate reform in 2015, two-way fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate have become the norm, and the exchange rate elasticity has been significantly enhanced, effectively playing the role of an automatic stabilizer for regulating the macroeconomy and the balance of payments. In the future, as the difference in domestic and foreign monetary policy cycles converges, the RMB exchange rate is expected to remain basically stable.

Exchange rate shows strong resilience

Since July 25, the RMB exchange rate has continued to rise sharply both at home and abroad, both returning to the 7.10 era. On August 5, the domestic RMB exchange rate (CNY) rose to 7.1120 to 1, and the overseas RMB exchange rate (CNH) rose to 7.0836 to 1, both hitting recent highs. The direction of the RMB exchange rate has sparked heated discussions in the market.

As for the main reasons for the sharp rebound in the RMB exchange rate this time, Guan Tao, global chief economist of BOC Securities, believes that, on the one hand, the expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have increased and the US dollar index has weakened, which has greatly eased the pressure on non-US currencies; at the same time, the reverse closing of yen carry trades and the strong appreciation of the yen have led to a rebound in the overall popularity of Asian currencies; on the other hand, strong domestic policies and reforms have boosted market confidence.