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The number of Chinese students has dropped by 70% to less than 10,000! American high schools are in the midst of a "bankruptcy wave". Has the golden age of studying abroad at a young age come to an end?

2024-08-21

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In early 2015, Guangming Daily published an article titled “American high school education is not easy”."ofThe article states that --

  • In 2005, only 65 mainland Chinese students were enrolled in private high schools in the United States;

  • In 2013, the number reached 24,000.369 times growth in 10 years

According to data from students and exchange scholars from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, that year was just the beginning of the "U.S. high fever" -

20142.5Ten thousandpeople

20152.9Ten thousandpeople

201634,000people

201735,000people

20183.210,000 people

There is a sentence in the article that left a deep impression on me.“The gap between Chinese and American education began in high school education”This gap still exists today, but Chinese families’ enthusiasm for American high schools has plummeted—in 2023, there will be only 9,000 students from mainland China enrolled in American high schools (about 2,250 students per year over the past four years), a mere 25.6% of the peak in 2017, a 74.4% drop. 

Last year, at least four boarding high schools and 12 day schools in the United States faced closure. One of them was Mount Alvernia High School, a century-old private school located in Boston, which is regrettable.

Last month, "Dad is awesome" connected with a third-party search platform for young students studying abroadTeacher Zhang Xi, founder of FindingSchoolAt the beginning of the lecture, this chart of US high school trends shocked many families and industry practitioners: 



Mega is realCoolWill it pick up again in the future?

The number of Chinese families applying to US high schools has declined. Why is it becoming increasingly difficult to get into top US high schools?

As the Chinese market declines, which emerging markets are top American high schools targeting?

In contrast to the cooling of high school tuition in the United States, the tuition for boarding students in Lawrenceville and California Webber has exceeded $76,000, and Andover, Hotchkiss, and Deerfield are also close to $70,000. And high school in the United States is just the beginning. The cost of future undergraduate and postgraduate studies in the United States will be added. Once the child is determined to go to high school in the United States, the tuition will rise.It is not an exaggeration to prepare 10 million yuan for education consumption.Therefore, many parents are also very curious:



In the era of consumption downgrade, is it still worth spending tens of millions of dollars to study in American high schools and universities?

In addition to the United States and high schools, what other countries are worth considering for studying abroad at a young age? 

We have organized the lecture into text to address the issues that are of most concern to families with young students studying abroad, so that parents can forward and collect them.

*For ease of reading, this article is written in the first person

The number of Chinese students enrolling in US high schools has plummeted.

The same is true in Asia.
Earlier, we mentioned that the number of mainland Chinese students enrolled in US high schools has “plunged”. What about other Asian countries? Basically, they have fallen to the lowest point in history within the three years since the outbreak.However, there are still differences in performance between different countries/regionsfor example:
South Korea



In 2014, it was 8,531 people, and in 2023, it reached a low of 2,554 people, alsoA 70% dropmany.

Hong Kong, China



During the pandemic, the number of people in 2021 dropped to only 388, but in 2024 it has already reachedRecover to a level higher than before the epidemic, 602 people. It can be speculated that some of them are families who immigrated to Hong Kong from the mainland.

Taiwan



The number of students studying in American high schools has been declining, from 1,055 in 2014 to 408 in 2024. In addition, Japan and Singapore alsoAt a low level, butRelatively stable

Vietnam is more interesting.



Vietnam's "beauty fever"It is a few years later than other countries. There was a small peak in 2018, with 4,448 people going to the United States to study in high schools. After experiencing a decline due to the epidemic, it has now risen back to the level of 2014.According to the trend, it will continue to grow.

According to data from the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, in 2023, the number of students from India exceeded that of China for the first time, reaching a total of 377,600, making it the largest source country of international students in the United States. 

However, judging from the data on young students studying abroad, although the number has dropped to only 1/4 of the pre-epidemic level, the total number is still far ahead of the second place, South Korea. India is not even in the top 5.

Seeing this, many parents may be concerned.The number of Chinese students studying in American high schools is at its lowest point in the past 10 years. Will it increase again in the next 5 or 10 years? 

Next is Amerigo Education Group's research report from November last year -

  • If we optimistically estimate that the population will grow by 11% per year, it will grow to nearly 20,000 people by 2030.

  • But if the number continues to decline, there may be only more than 4,000 people left by 2030. 

However, even if we follow the optimistic trend,middleIt will be difficult for the number of students from mainland China studying in the United States and high schools to return to the peak of 35,000 in the golden age. 

FindingSchool has also conducted internal testing and generally believes that the number of applicants from Chinese families will remain around 10,000, and may fluctuate between 10,000 and 12,000. The Chinese market for American high schools has entered a relatively stable state.

In the final analysisThe loss of students from mainland China to American high schools does not mean a loss of Chinese families’ willingness to go to American high schools.Chinese families have always had a great demand for high-quality education at the secondary school level. However, there are three key variables:


01

Some families mayNot through mainland China identityApply for American high school;
02

There are also some families who choose to study abroad at a young age, butThe United Kingdom, Canada, Singapore, Australia and other countriesAs a springboard, the choices are more diverse;
03

Of course, the past 10 years have also been the golden age of international schools in China. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen all have very strong international high schools. Many parents do not necessarily want to send their children abroad to study in the United States, butStay in the country to finish your studies before going abroad.

In addition, the vast majority of Chinese students who have left American high schools are attending day schools. We know that in 2016 and 2017, American college and homestay agencies were very prosperous (at that time, due to the large number of Chinese students in day schools, many schools would entrust agencies to recruit and manage students). However, since the outbreak of the epidemic, these agencies have encountered difficulties in operation, and some have even gone bankrupt.

This is why, although the number of applications for US high schools has decreased, the feeling of parents preparing for US high schools is:It is becoming increasingly difficult to get into a top American high school.

The craze for American high school has faded.

But why is it becoming increasingly difficult to get into top American high schools?

Boarding high schools in the United States generally recruit 5-25 students per class. Even if Chinese students apply to the 200 schools at most, they can only accommodate 4,000-5,000 people in total. This is still not enough for the total number of 9,475 people who apply for American high schools (if all of them apply for boarding high schools in the United States).

In fact, judging from the number of views on the FIndingSchool backend,The popularity of some well-known schools has increased instead of decreased.

For example, California Webber, Stevenson, Emma Willard School, Cushing Academy, etc., when the number of students reached the bottom in 2023, the search volume reached a high point. 

In other words, from the application side, the number of applicants for boarding high schools in the United States has not dropped significantly, especially for popular boarding high schools in the United States.At least the top 50 American high schools have reduced the number of admissions places for Chinese students.

The reason is very simple. On the one hand, the overall Chinese market is declining rapidly (it is no longer a growing market). On the other hand, during the epidemic, many families gave up on admission or returned to China after studying for a year or two. For safety and security reasons,American high school admissions officers are in urgent need of looking to other countries as supplemental sources of students, rather than putting all their eggs in one basket: the Chinese market.For example, two of the top 50 high schools in the United States, such as Kitanoyama High School and Kent High School, have more or less indicated that they are adjusting the number of places for the Chinese region. 

Of course, the reduction in the number of places in American high schools is a gradual adjustment. It will not be the case that 10 places are admitted this year and the number is cut in half and 5 next year. But even if there are 2 fewer places each year, the impact on individual Chinese students will still be huge.

So where did these “lost” places for Chinese students go?

Vietnam is a market that US admissions officers are very interested in because it is in a rising stage. An admissions officer said after the interview:






The student is very outstanding, but unfortunately he holds a Chinese passport. If he had a Vietnamese passport, we could recruit him right away.

This shows how much American middle schools value the Vietnamese market.

In additionSeveral very popular areas, one is the Middle East, one is South America such as Mexico and Brazil, and the other is India, but the number of American high school students in India is too small, only a few hundred. Of course, European students such as German and Spanish students are still very enthusiastic about studying in American high schools, but they are mainly exchange students. 

In addition to the decrease in the number of admissions for mainland Chinese students in some schools, there are three other changes that families applying for boarding in US high schools need to pay attention to:


01

Interview requirements for top US high schools have been raised.For example, schools such as Lawrenceville, Concord, and Middlesex School have begun to require third-party online interviews, such as Vericant Interview and InitialView, before the official launch. This is also an additional requirement for students' English communication and expression skills;
02

Diversified enrollment.In addition to the first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, admissions officers willActively seek out outstanding students from second- and third-tier cities, these students bring a more diverse campus environment.
03

The differences between students in mainland China and Hong Kong are gradually decreasing.In the past, schools would completely divide students into two pools, but now admissions officers are gradually considering Hong Kong students and mainland students in the same pool.

Nearly 10 million investment in 10 years,

Is it worth studying in American high schools?
Compared to the American high school craze 10 years ago, today's parents are undoubtedly becoming more rational.For parents, sending their children to study in American high schools is not just an experience of one or two years, but a long-term investment of at least 8 years (4 years in American high school + 4 years in American college), with a base of at least $800,000 per year. So, can our children "get their money back"?

To measure whether Meigao is worth it,Perhaps the first factor that parents consider is further education.

According to the statistics of this year's U.S. college admissions results released by "Dad is Awesome", 55% of the more than 800 students admitted to Ivy League schools and the top 10 universities are from overseas. Among them, U.S. high schools are still the "leader", accounting for 74% of overseas high school students.

According to the data released by the official Annual School Profile of American high schools, in the past three years,The admission rate of the top 10 boarding schools in the United States and Ivy League schools is around 16%-17%.That is to say, if there are 100 graduates in a grade, about 16 or 17 children can enter Ivy League schools.

The top 25 can maintain about 13%. If you are in the top 50 US high school, there is basically a 50% chance that you can enter the top 50 US colleges.

This is the overall data for the school. The proportion of Asian students or Chinese students will be higher.

In the past two years, the absolute advantage of top American high schools in entering top universities has been shrinking.This year we also heard that some students from top American high schools did not get the ideal admission results. On the contrary, some Chinese students who attended top 50 or 60 American high schools, or even around 70, got admitted to Harvard, Yale, Pedston, and Mathematics.

This is related to an admissions principle of American universities:I want to see how students utilize the resources of their high school and do their best.

Suppose you are studying in an American high school ranked after 50th, and the school’s resources are relatively limited (compared to the top American high schools), but you are able to make full use of the resources and leverage your advantages to become the top 10% of students in the school, then you have a great chance of getting into a top 20 university or even into the Ivy League.

Besides the factor of further education,The influence of American high schools on children’s growth is also crucial.

In the past, "Dad is Awesome" has interviewed many children from American high schools, many of whom have been admitted to top universities such as Harvard and MIT.But apart from the halo of a prestigious school, its biggest characteristic is maturity. 

After four years of high school life in the US, children will not only have stronger independence and time management skills, but also interpersonal skills. More importantly, they are determined in their goals, especially when applying, they have considered very clearly why they choose a certain major and why they apply to a certain school. They are fully prepared to become a college student.

This is also related to the nature of American high schools. Many American high schools generally call themselves pre-colleges, colleges, and pre-schools, which are close to preparatory schools for universities. Compared with domestic high schools, they are better in terms of academics, ability, and mentality.Mega is definitely better.

Finally, let’s summarize the question of whether or not to go to American high school.


01

American high school is consumption rather than investmentIf you have to tighten your belt and sell your house to afford your child's education in American high school, then give up decisively. At least the tuition fees for domestic and international high schools are much cheaper.
02

American high schools do have more resources, and they are not as competitive (or purely academic) as the top international high schools in China. Although there are schools in Beijing and Shanghai that offer holistic education, they are still relatively rare. If your child has special talents in sports or the arts, American high schools are definitely a better choice.
03

If you don't have the goal of getting into the Ivy League, and think that the top 30 schools are also good, and you already have a good international school in China, you don't really have to spend a lot of money to attend a US high school.
04

American high school is a marathon, not a sprint, and parents must consider all aspects. In addition to learning, there are also children's independence, communication skills, cultural adaptability, etc., so make a careful decision.

In addition to the Meigao,

What other options are there for studying abroad at a young age?

In recent years, FindingSchool has also begun to pay attention to the data of young students studying abroad in other countries such as Canada, Britain, and Switzerland.

This yearThe total number of students from mainland China in British private high schools exceeds 10,000, reaching 10,375, an increase of 18.7% compared to 2023. At the same time, with the budget announcement released by the British Labour Party, from January 1, 2025, a 20% VAT will be levied on private school tuition fees and the charity tax rate exemption for private schools will be cancelled.

In the future, British private schools will inevitably need a large number of overseas students and will actively recruit students from Asian countries. Will the threshold be lowered? Will they become more popular?

Secondly,If parents have immigration plans, they can also consider Canadian high schools.Although there is still a certain gap in global recognition between Canada and the United States and the United Kingdom, Canada is relatively relaxed in terms of cultural friendliness and tolerance as well as immigration policy.

There is also a Swiss high school.If parents want a very international educational environment and are relatively relaxed about studying, Switzerland is a very good study abroad destination.

American schools often talk about diversity, but in fact 70%-80% of the students on campus are local children. However, in Switzerland, people from all over the world gather on campus, which is a very good platform for children to develop an international perspective.

Of course in these four countries --

  • The highest tuition fee in Switzerland is close to RMB 1 million;

  • The tuition fee plus boarding in the United States is basically between 80,000 and 100,000 US dollars, about 600,000 to 800,000 RMB;

  • Next is the UK, which is about 500,000 RMB;

  • Canadian boarding schools now cost around $400,000 per year.

Based on observations over the past decade,Generally speaking, students who can perform well in American high schools often come from well-prepared and rational families.

These families tend to think very clearly about "why they want to study in the United States" instead of sending their children abroad on impulse. 

They know that children need to be fully prepared to study in a new country/region, not just for standardized tests such as TOEFL and SSAT, but also for various soft skills.Children going to American high schools will face various cultural challenges, conflicts in life, and difficulties in making friends., confused about their interests and majors, but they are ready to meet the opportunities and challenges of the future

In fact, only when parents are fully aware and students are prepared, they will have a smoother transition and better development in the future.

Follow, like, and forward to bring strength to more parents!