Zhejiang's energy structure has changed
2024-08-19
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Chao News Client reporter Hu Jingyi Zhang Yuan correspondent Zhang Zhenghua Yang Hongji
Zhejiang's energy structure has quietly changed. By the first half of 2024, the number of clean energy units installed in Zhejiang exceeded that of thermal power units for the first time.
Data from State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power showed that as of the end of June, Zhejiang's clean energy installed capacity was about 71.177 million kilowatts, accounting for about 52% of Zhejiang's total power installed capacity and exceeding 50% for the first time, while thermal power units were about 67.997 million kilowatts.
my country is rich in coal, poor in oil and little in gas, forming an energy structure dominated by coal, and coal consumption is the main source of carbon emissions. In 2020, China proposed the 3060 dual carbon target, that is, striving to achieve carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. Developing clean energy is a must.
Second in East China
In the past five years, Zhejiang's clean energy development has been rapid.
In 2020, the total installed capacity of thermal power and clean energy in Zhejiang was approximately 63.574 million kilowatts and 40.243 million kilowatts, respectively. In just three years, the gap narrowed to approximately 2.557 million kilowatts. By the first half of this year, clean energy had achieved reverse catch-up.
Data source: State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power
Among the five provinces in East China, Zhejiang ranks second in terms of the proportion of clean energy installed capacity.
East China does not have an advantage in terms of geographical location and natural resources, so the development of clean energy is relatively difficult. At the end of last year, Fujian's clean energy installed capacity accounted for 63%, especially hydropower installed capacity accounted for more than 20%, the fastest development among the five provinces in East China.
Outside the eastern region, the western and northern regions have significant resource advantages. For example, in Tibet and Qinghai, the proportion of thermal power installed capacity is less than 10%, while in Jilin and Gansu, the proportion of wind power installed capacity alone exceeds 30%, and the proportion of hydropower installed capacity in Sichuan is as high as 75%.
As of the end of June, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity was approximately 3.07 billion kilowatts, of which thermal power accounted for 45.8%. The combined installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power generation has exceeded that of coal-fired power. The development of clean energy in the country has entered the fast lane.
In fact, clean energy and thermal power are not contradictory concepts.
The former emphasizes an energy technology system that is both clean and economical, while the latter refers to a method of generating electricity by burning heat and converting it into electricity.
This summer, the four units of Zheneng Lanxi Power Plant are running at full capacity. Image source: Visual China
According to the definition of national energy-related planning, clean energy includes hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, solar power generation, geothermal energy and ocean power generation, etc.; thermal power mainly includes coal power, gas power, etc.
Biomass energy, which is generated by burning methane, garbage, and agricultural and forestry waste to generate electricity, has the environmentally friendly attributes of a circular economy and also uses thermal power generation, so it is counted in both concepts.
However, even if biomass energy is removed from Zhejiang's clean energy, the total installed capacity (about 68.115 million kilowatts) still exceeds that of thermal power, and Zhejiang's energy production mode has entered a stage of accelerated replacement of fossil energy.
Scenery
Among the major categories of clean energy, wind power and solar power generation installed capacity are the main growth drivers.
As of June, Zhejiang's installed capacity of solar power generation was far ahead, at about 38.78 million kilowatts, followed by hydropower, nuclear power, wind power and biomass energy, at about 13.878 million kilowatts, 9.166 million kilowatts, 6.278 million kilowatts and 3.062 million kilowatts, respectively.
Looking at the growth in the past five years, Zhejiang's solar power and wind power have developed extremely rapidly, with installed capacity increasing by more than 3 times, while the development of hydropower, nuclear power and biomass energy has slowed down.
According to Shen Zhiheng, deputy director of the Main Grid Planning Office of the Power Grid Planning Center of the State Grid Zhejiang Economic Research Institute, Zhejiang's water resources were developed early, and conventional hydropower development is almost saturated. In addition, in order to protect the river ecosystem, Zhejiang has stipulated that small hydropower stations must ensure a certain ecological flow from 2021, and the amount of water used for power generation is limited, which affects the enthusiasm for hydropower development.
Data source: State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power
Nuclear power mainly controls safety, and the preliminary work takes a long time. The construction investment is large and the cycle is long. In the past five years, Zhejiang has not had any new projects put into production. At present, there are three nuclear power projects under construction in the province. It is expected that Sanmao Nuclear Power and Sanmen Nuclear Power Phase II will be put into production between 2025 and 2027, and there will be a significant increase by then.
The industrial system of biomass power generation has not yet been perfected. Fuel resources such as straw require additional investment in storage and transportation, resulting in high costs. The renewable energy electricity price subsidies and local supporting policies are not enough to encourage the sustainable development of the entire industry chain, so the scale of the biomass energy industry is relatively small.
In terms of wind and solar power, Zhejiang, with its "seven mountains, one water and two fields" geomorphic features, mainly develops distributed photovoltaic and offshore wind power. As of the end of June, the province's distributed photovoltaic installed capacity was about 31.64 million kilowatts, accounting for more than 80%; offshore wind power installed capacity was about 4.77 million kilowatts, accounting for more than 75%.
During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, Zhejiang implemented the "Wind and Solar Doubling Plan", which clearly stated that by the end of 2025, the installed capacity of renewable energy will exceed 50 million kilowatts. This goal was achieved ahead of schedule in the middle of last year.
Coal-fired power transformation
Installed capacity does not equal power generation, and currently thermal power generation still dominates.
Data source: State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power
From the annual utilization hours, we can understand that a photovoltaic panel, affected by night and weather, can generate electricity for about 1,000 hours a year; while a coal-fired power unit, as long as there is "food", can generate electricity for more than 5,600 hours a year.
In the first half of this year, clean energy power generation exceeded 84.4 billion kWh, while thermal power generation exceeded 147.4 billion kWh. Among them, coal-fired power generation accounted for the vast majority, reaching 128.49 billion kWh. Next came nuclear power, solar power and hydropower, with power generation of 36.42 billion kWh, 17.19 billion kWh and 16.52 billion kWh respectively.
However, compared with the same period last year, the contribution of clean energy to power generation has increased. In particular, solar power generation, wind power and hydropower saw significant increases of 33.8%, 34.1% and 61.7% in the first half of the year, while coal-fired and gas-fired power generation both declined.
On the one hand, the installed capacity of wind and solar power has increased, and the province has given priority to consuming new energy power generation and fully connected it to the grid. This year, the abundant water supply has also led to an increase in hydropower generation. On the other hand, in the first half of this year, the total amount of electricity purchased by Zhejiang from other provinces increased by 18.6% year-on-year. As an adjustable and controllable power generation resource, thermal power has correspondingly reduced its power generation.
Data source: State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power
This also represents the general direction of the transformation of thermal power and coal-fired power. Since the 14th Five-Year Plan, the electricity demand of the whole society has grown rapidly, and the national coal-fired power and nuclear power approval has entered a period of policy relaxation. At present, there are 10 coal-fired power projects under construction in Zhejiang, which are expected to be put into operation in 2024-2026.
At the same time, coal-fired power is transforming from a supporting power source to a power source that is both basic and system-regulating.
As approved coal-fired power plants are put into operation one after another, and the installed capacity of pumped storage and new energy continues to increase, the annual utilization hours of coal-fired power will continue to decline, and may further drop to 3,000 hours by 2035. In the future, coal-fired power and nuclear power will become the bottom-line power sources, and nuclear power, as the main source of power increase, will increase its share of power generation year by year.
Sustainability
In recent years, climate response mechanisms related to carbon emissions have been established both at home and abroad, and there is still a broad market for clean energy. Where will Zhejiang develop next?
In fact, Zhejiang also has rich offshore wind energy resources. Affected by the narrow channel effect of the Taiwan Strait, the annual utilization hours of Zhejiang's sea breeze gradually increase from north to south. In the next ten years, Wenzhou's sea area will become the main battlefield for sea breeze development, mainly concentrated in Ruian and Cangnan areas.
Daishan No. 4 offshore wind farm in the northern waters of Zhoushan. Image source: Visual China
At the same time, wind power is developing in the deep sea. Since the end of last year, Zhejiang has added 28 million kilowatts of deep sea capacity and planned a deep sea offshore wind power mother port in East China, opening up new space for promoting the large-scale development of offshore wind power. It is expected that by 2030, the province's cumulative grid-connected installed capacity of offshore wind power will reach more than 20 million kilowatts.
In terms of photovoltaic power generation, Zhejiang Province expects that the total installed capacity will reach 80 million kilowatts. In addition to encouraging the construction of rooftop photovoltaic power generation, centralized photovoltaic power generation such as beach photovoltaic power generation and fish-photovoltaic complementation is also a development direction.
Wind and solar power generation is greatly affected by the weather. Under large-scale construction, the volatility of its power generation is a problem for the power system. In the future, it is necessary to accelerate the iteration of technologies such as energy storage, pumped storage, flexible transformation of coal-fired power generation, and digitalization of the power grid.
From the perspective of industrial development, Zhejiang has a relatively complete industrial chain of wind power, photovoltaics, power batteries and energy storage, and the development of related manufacturing industries and the green and low-carbon transformation of energy support each other.
At present, the production cost of wind and solar manufacturing industry continues to decline due to technological progress, large-scale production and supply chain optimization. After the subsidy policy is reduced, it can compete with traditional energy.
Photovoltaic and protective forests on the beach in the coastal area of Yueqing Bay, Wenzhou City complement each other. Image source: Visual China
In recent years, enterprises have invested heavily in new production capacity in pursuit of economies of scale, resulting in overinvestment and duplication in the industry. The oversupply of products in the market has also triggered fierce price competition.
Under the "involutionary" competition, the profit margins of enterprises have been severely compressed. Especially in the photovoltaic industry, the entire industry suffered losses in the first half of this year. Some small enterprises are difficult to survive, and industry consolidation has occurred, exacerbating the concentration of top companies.
Technology is also changing at an accelerated pace. The N-type battery technology in the photovoltaic industry is iterating, and the wind power industry is developing towards large-scale development. The old technology is being eliminated quickly, forcing companies to continue to invest in research and development. In order to ease the pressure of competition, many companies are expanding their markets overseas, but they are also facing challenges such as international trade barriers, exchange rate risks, and compliance requirements.
From the blue ocean to the red ocean, clean energy construction and production still need to continue to explore the path of sustainable development.
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