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Outlook丨Racing for a new trillion-dollar track

2024-08-19

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◇ From the domestic substitution of core components to the emergence of "Tiangong" and "Qinglong", from "Kuafu" who can speak Sichuan dialect to "Walker Taishan" who set the fastest development speed of two months, the number of Chinese companies that have released complete machine products has exceeded 20, far more than the number of foreign companies
The competitive advantage of China's humanoid robot industry is taking shape, and the scale of the industry continues to grow. Core components such as harmonic reducers and two-dimensional reducers have entered the supply system of international leading companies; service and special robots have not only been applied on a large scale in logistics, medical care, construction and other fields, but also play an important role in space exploration, emergency rescue, public safety and other aspects.
my country has made intensive efforts in many places, from establishing innovation centers to integrate the industrial chain, to building open source platforms to share results, to focusing on tackling the underlying technology, to accelerate the progress of multiple links, to solve the industrial problems of humanoid robot manufacturing, and cultivate new quality productivity.
Text | "Outlook" News Weekly reporters Guo Yujing, Zhu Han and Dong Xue
The humanoid robot mother platform "Tiangong" was released in Beijing (Photo taken on April 27, 2024) Photo by Guo Yujing/This magazine
"In the 55 years since the first generation of humanoid robots came out in 1969, no moment has been closer to making the dream come true than today. The iPhone moment of humanoid robots has arrived." In the view of Xiong Youjun, general manager of the Beijing Embodied Intelligent Robot Innovation Center, the industry's evolution in the past one or two years has surpassed the development of many previous years.
In April 2024, the general humanoid robot "Tiangong" independently developed by my country made its debut in Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone. It is 163 cm tall and weighs 43 kg. It can carry 5 kg of weight and run at a speed of 6 km/h. It can pass obstacles in a blind state... "Tiangong" has achieved a breakthrough in the anthropomorphic running of a full-size humanoid robot driven by pure electricity.
In July, at the 2024 World Artificial Intelligence Conference held in Shanghai, 25 humanoid robots formed a "pioneer array" to showcase the latest achievements of embodied intelligence in the world. The world's first general humanoid robot open source public version "Qinglong" made a stunning appearance.
Since the big artificial intelligence model gave robots a brain and the ability to "communicate" with the outside world, the once dormant market enthusiasm has been quickly ignited. Humanoid robots are expected to become a disruptive product after computers, smartphones, and new energy vehicles, and become a must-fight in the forefront of science and technology in the world today. Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2035, the humanoid robot market is expected to reach $154 billion.
In this trillion-level track, China is running in sync with other countries.
In November 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Guiding Opinions on the Innovation and Development of Humanoid Robots", proposing that by 2025, my country's humanoid robot innovation system will be initially established, and a number of key technologies such as "brain, cerebellum, and limbs" will achieve breakthroughs to ensure the safe and effective supply of core components.
It was this month that the first innovation center in China focusing on the core technology, product development and application ecosystem construction of humanoid robots, the Beijing Embodied Intelligent Robot Innovation Center, was established in the Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone, marking the beginning of the leading role of innovation resource-rich regions such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong in this new track.
Since 2024, Zhejiang, Shandong, Anhui, Sichuan and other major manufacturing provinces have quickly followed up, and many places have established innovation centers integrating production, learning, research and application, giving full play to the comparative advantages of technical breakthroughs, ontology integration and application demonstration scene reserves, and accelerating the forging of strengths and making up for weaknesses. From the domestic substitution of core components to the emergence of "Tiangong" and "Qinglong", from "Kuafu" who can speak Sichuan dialect to "Xingzhe Taishan" who set the fastest development speed of two months, the number of Chinese companies that have released complete machine products has exceeded 20.
Although the humanoid robot industry is still in the stage of climbing up the mountain from the bottom, and it will take some time to form large-scale commercial applications, this new industry that integrates new technologies, new materials, and high-end manufacturing has contributed a unique perspective to observe the upgrading of China's industries to high-end: from tackling bottom-level technologies to independent research and development of core technologies, from establishing innovation centers to integrate resources to building open source platforms to share results, from cultivating hidden champions in niche markets to building a local industrial chain parts supply system, from forward-looking industrial policies to mutual promotion of innovative ecosystems, the "iron triangle" of scientific and technological innovation, policy guidance, and market vitality has driven the industry to get off to a rapid start and compete with global companies on the trillion-level new track.
The path to breakthrough for future industries represented by humanoid robots is the only way for China's industries to leap forward rapidly and create new advantages in global competition.
Overcoming the technical barriers
In the tidy workshop, industrial robots are carrying out the precision assembly of planetary gear reducers, servo controllers and communication interface modules... At the Dahua Robotics 5G smart factory located in the Artificial Intelligence Innovation Experimental Zone in Maqiao Town, Minhang District, Shanghai, the robot's intelligent flexible joints that integrate communication, computing and sensing can be automatically assembled in as little as 100 seconds.
"Thanks to the support of intelligent technologies such as '5G+Industrial Internet' and digital twins, the factory can produce more than 10 different models of humanoid robot joints at the same time. Through large-scale automated production, the entry threshold of the humanoid robot industry has been lowered." The factory manager introduced.
Even so, the biggest challenge for humanoid robots in the short term still comes from hardware, especially core components that require high-end manufacturing support. The head of Xiaomi's robot team told reporters, "Currently, the upper limb accuracy of (humanoid robots) is about centimeter-level, which is still far from the industrial accuracy of 0.01 mm. If industrial accuracy is achieved, data collection efficiency will be greatly improved."
Manufacturing precision has become a fortress that must be overcome in my country's high-end manufacturing. How can this shortcoming be quickly made up?
Taking the precision reducer that plays a decisive role in the robot's movement accuracy as an example, Zhang Yueming, chief scientist of Beijing Zhitong Precision Transmission Technology Co., Ltd., told reporters that the core component of robot movement is the "joint", which is composed of precision reducers. Its function is to transmit the power of the servo motor and adjust the speed and torque. The technical barriers in this component are relatively high. In the past, about 75% of the precision reducers in the domestic industrial robot market were monopolized by Japanese companies.
Due to high technical barriers, domestic manufacturers of reducers for industrial robots generally adopt the reverse mapping and imitation technology route, and the product accuracy and durability are insufficient. Zhitong Technology has taken a path starting from theoretical innovation at the source and using forward design methods. In 2015, Zhitong Technology was established. At the end of the year, it cooperated with Beijing University of Technology to carry out in-depth integrated cooperation of "production, learning, research and application". In 2020, it established the "Beijing Zhitong University of Technology Intelligent Transmission Technology Research Institute", with a total investment of 800 million yuan, to research, develop and produce high-precision CRV reducers for industrial robot joints and new cycloid precision reducers for humanoid robots.
Starting from scratch, from the basic theoretical research on gear transmission, to gear materials, heat treatment, and then to component design, we constantly tried and corrected errors, and finally fully mastered the design principles of high-precision cycloid reducers and mastered the key technologies of related product design and manufacturing processes.
Zhang Yueming said that only when the core technology is independently controllable can we truly achieve import substitution and fill the domestic gap. At present, the core performance indicators such as the accuracy and service life of the company's humanoid robot precision reducer have reached the international leading level.
Independent research and development is becoming the "standard configuration" to solve the "bottleneck" of key components. This is also reflected in the sensors of the core perception components of humanoid robots. Unlike those used in automobiles and industrial environments, humanoid robots require special sensors such as olfaction, which require miniaturization and precision, and commercialization also requires low cost and mass production. Guo Jishun, director of Ningbo Junpu Artificial Intelligence and Humanoid Robot Research Institute, told reporters that through independent research and development and joint research and development with partners, Junpu Intelligent Manufacturing Co., Ltd. has formed a series of research and development and production capabilities for key sensor kits for humanoid robots. In response to the needs of special sensors, six-dimensional force sensors and robot olfactory sensors have been developed. Among them, the more expensive six-dimensional force sensors, high-precision IMUs, multi-spectral sensors, etc. are designed and reduced in a targeted manner for humanoid robots to meet the needs of large-scale batch applications. In the view of industry experts, sensors are also the foundation of China's industrial modernization and intelligence, and market demand is urgently needed to promote the research and development and manufacturing of high-end sensors.
Some domestic companies, including UBTECH, are breaking the monopoly of foreign systems by developing their own robot operating system application frameworks, accelerating the realization of true autonomy and control, and further improving the safety, stability and reliability of the system. Jiao Jichao, vice president of UBTECH Robotics and executive director of the research institute, said that China has a large enough market scale and the best industrial supply chain in the world, which is very conducive to the large-scale production of cost-effective products.
In addition to the innovation breakthroughs led by enterprises, major industrial provinces and strong manufacturing cities are also rushing into the humanoid robot industry, greatly expanding the industry's hinterland.
In March 2024, Zhejiang established the Zhejiang Humanoid Robot Innovation Center in Ningbo, focusing on the research of humanoid robot intelligent sensing and control technology and the development of complete machine systems. Ningbo is one of the few cities in China that has a layout of the "three major parts" of robot reducers, controllers, and servo motors, and has a first-mover advantage in the supply of key components for humanoid robots.
Hangzhou has explicitly proposed to provide policy and financial support for the construction of the "brain" and "cerebellum" of intelligent robots, and the research and development of key technologies for core components and complete machine manufacturing. It is planned that by 2026, the industrial output value of the entire intelligent robot industry chain will exceed 50 billion yuan, and 50 new complete machine products will be achieved, including no less than 3 humanoid robot complete machine products that reach industrialization level.
In Shandong, the humanoid robot "Walker Taishan" ran steadily at a speed of 7.2 kilometers per hour, reaching the domestic leading level and setting a record for the industry's fastest development speed of humanoid robots in two months.
To support the cultivation and development of the humanoid robot industry, Shandong will provide a maximum reward of 8 million yuan to humanoid robot manufacturers, and a maximum reward of 3 million yuan to humanoid robot core component manufacturers.
Anhui has made a comprehensive and full-chain technical layout around the "brain-cerebellum-limbs-evaluation" of humanoid robots. Recently, two provincial platforms, Anhui Humanoid Robot Key Laboratory and Anhui Humanoid Robot Industry Innovation Center, were approved for establishment.
In Sichuan, the first batch of seven provincial AI science and technology major projects, including "Humanoid Robot Key Technology Research and Application Demonstration", were launched in March this year. A Sichuan local humanoid robot, "Kuafu" who can speak dialect, has recently appeared on the streets of Mianyang as a "civilized traffic counselor".
At present, the number of enterprises in my country that have released complete machine products exceeds 20, far more than the number of foreign enterprises. Zhong Xinlong, director of the Artificial Intelligence Research Office of the Future Industry Research Center of CCID Think Tank, believes that China has basically the same first-mover advantage as developed countries in the humanoid robot market, and ranks in the first echelon of the world in terms of patent layout, forming a group of enterprises with independent intellectual property rights and core technologies. The Chinese humanoid robot industry is forming a competitive advantage, and the scale of the industry continues to grow. Core components such as harmonic reducers and two-dimensional reducers have entered the supply system of international leading enterprises; service and special robots have not only been applied on a large scale in logistics, medical care, construction and other fields, but also play an important role in space exploration, emergency rescue, public safety and other aspects.
There are still challenges in running
Taking small steps, the humanoid robot came to the side of the car body and checked the quality of the front and rear door locks. Then it stretched its arm into the car body, pinched the seat belt with its fingers and pulled it down to test the function of the seat belt. The test results were uploaded to the factory's intelligent manufacturing management system in real time. Recently, UBTECH's industrial humanoid robot entered the final assembly workshop of the Weilai factory in Hefei, Anhui for practical training, collaborating with humans to complete quality inspections.
"The humanoid robot has stepped out of the laboratory and into the real automobile manufacturing environment. By collecting scene data on the assembly line, it can understand the production needs of the company and complete self-iteration and upgrade to prepare for its official 'job duties,'" said Jiao Jichao.
Industrial scenarios are becoming the breakthrough point that humanoid robot companies are targeting first, replacing traditional industrial robots that can only perform fixed process tasks. Now that humanoid robots have entered factories, are they far from entering thousands of households?
Judging from the development of manufacturing technology, it is far from that fast. Zhang Yueming said that many times humanoid robots "wobble" when walking, which is caused by the lack of precision and rigidity of manufacturing technology. Such "embodied structure" reflects the overall capabilities of the manufacturing industry to a certain extent.
Currently, humanoid robots are at a critical juncture in moving from the laboratory to industrialization. As the most complex product in the field of robotics, their development still faces many challenges.
First, in the field of key components, there is still a gap with the international top level.
There is still much room for improvement in the power density, product life and reliability of high-precision servo motors and precision reducers.
Zhang Yueming took the reducer as an example, saying that the manufacturing process is complicated and precise, with high requirements for manufacturing technology and materials, as well as cost-effectiveness. In the future, as domestic technology gradually breaks through, coupled with the overall shortage of supply in my country's precision reducer market, there is great potential for domestic substitution of precision reducers, and the process of domestic substitution is expected to accelerate.
Xiong Rong, director of the Zhejiang Humanoid Robot Innovation Center and professor at Zhejiang University, believes that from the perspective of computing controllers, there is a significant gap in the ability to have high computing power in a small size, which is reflected in the fact that the computing power and integration of domestic chips are still far behind the international advanced level. The joint movement characteristics of bipedal humanoid robots are similar to those of humans, such as fast movement speed, good maneuverability, fast changes in stride and frequency, etc. These movement characteristics require the driver to have high power density, high responsiveness, high energy utilization efficiency and impact resistance. At present, domestic alternative manufacturers are in the initial stage, and there are no high-current products, and the product quality needs to be verified. "We are also raising higher requirements to companies, hoping to be able to replace them with domestic products in the next step."
The performance of high-end sensors used in embodied perception lags behind that of foreign countries.
At present, some companies have developed and launched mass-producible lidar sensors and ultra-wide spectrum cameras for humanoid robots, which have demonstrated relatively excellent performance. "But overall, there is still a certain gap in sensor accuracy and durability compared with international advanced products," said Xiong Rong.
Overall, sensors face problems such as lack of core technology and small industry scale. The stability and reliability of performance indicators of domestic sensors are still 1 to 2 orders of magnitude behind those of foreign competitors.
Secondly, my country's whole machine innovation is active, but lacks "from 0 to 1" innovation. Zhang Yueming believes that the domestic R&D enthusiasm is very high and progress is very fast, but in terms of original technology, the industry is often good at doing "from 1 to 100" development, but it is difficult to innovate "from 0 to 1".
Jiang Lei, chief scientist of the National and Local Co-construction Humanoid Robot Innovation Center, summarized the challenges as "one high and five difficult", namely high hardware threshold, difficult software algorithm, difficult software and hardware decoupling, difficult knowledge accumulation, difficult talent gathering and difficult safe application. "Although humanoid robots are a very hot topic, the industry still needs to 'think calmly'," he said.
Working together to solve complex industrial problems
How to solve complex industrial problems and promote the high-quality development of the humanoid robot industry? At present, many places in my country are making intensive efforts, from establishing innovation centers to integrate the industrial chain, to building open source platforms to share results, to focusing on tackling underlying technologies, and accelerating efforts in multiple links to cultivate new quality productivity.
——The state and local governments jointly build innovation centers to integrate industry resources.
Many places in my country are accelerating the construction of humanoid robot technology research and development capabilities. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong and other places have successively laid out humanoid robot innovation centers to accelerate the breakthrough of related core technologies. "This is a good way to solve the development problems of humanoid robots." Jiang Lei believes.
Beijing Embodied Intelligent Robot Innovation Center focuses on the research and development of key common technologies and ecological construction of embodied intelligent robots, carries out breakthroughs around the two core tasks of "Heavenly Craftsmanship" and "Opening Things", and is committed to becoming an industry resource organizer, industrial development cultivator, and promoter of practical applications in the field of embodied intelligence.
"The Innovation Center has obtained more than 600 intellectual property authorizations from shareholders such as UBTECH Robotics. It will integrate upstream and downstream resources, focus on the core technology research and development and ecological construction of humanoid robots, unite industry forces to concentrate on key research and development, and empower the entire industry with the results." Xiong Youjun said that the Innovation Center will play a leading role in innovation and form service capabilities such as prototype development, inspection and testing, precision processing, and mass manufacturing that can quickly respond to corporate needs.
Xiong Rong introduced that the Zhejiang Humanoid Robot Innovation Center focuses on the research and development of complete machines and brains and cerebrums. It drives the upstream to form a supply chain system through the complete machines, empowers the downstream with the capabilities of the brains and cerebrums, and then promotes downstream applications in conjunction with the development of software and tool chains.
——Build an open source platform and let enterprises play a role.
"Compared with foreign countries, the scale of humanoid robot companies in my country is relatively small. Although such an industry structure is conducive to the flourishing of a hundred flowers and the contention of a hundred schools of thought, it is also easy to cause repeated competition." Xiong Youjun said that with the help of platforms such as innovation centers, common breakthrough results can be opened up to the industry and provide a stage for performance, which will be conducive to the rapid development of the industry as a whole.
Jiang Lei believes that in the field of humanoid robots, open source can accelerate the development and application of technology. By gathering global wisdom and resources, it can quickly iterate and optimize the design and functions of robots, help solve technical problems, and promote breakthroughs in the performance, intelligence, and adaptability of humanoid robots.
——Integrate multiple chains and strengthen the research and development of underlying technologies.
In Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone, humanoid robots have become one of the key future industries. Ma Ning, deputy director of the Robotics and Intelligent Manufacturing Industry Bureau of Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone, said that relying on the Yizhuang Robotics Industrial Park, the park will integrate the advantages of the integration of software and hardware, the self-driving regulatory sandbox, and the compound advantages of multiple industries to promote the integrated development of advanced ontology, motion control, embodied intelligence data sets, vertical large models, computing power bases, and software systems.
——Cultivate hidden champions in segmented markets and build a local industrial chain parts supply system.
Beijing Embodied Intelligent Robot Innovation Center focuses on core parts such as control systems, servo motors, and reducers, supports enterprises to start with one joint and one reducer, cultivates a group of hidden champions in the market segment, specialized and new "little giants", "single champions" in the manufacturing industry, and "unicorn" enterprises, and strengthens the local industrial chain parts supply system. The center cooperates with well-known universities such as Tsinghua University, Peking University, Beihang University, and Harbin Institute of Technology to jointly carry out collaborative research on common key technologies, key components, and system integration, establish a high-quality patent pool, and form a joint defense, risk sharing, and open sharing of intellectual property collaborative use mechanism.
Chinese humanoid robots stand on the shoulders of the traditional industrial robot industry and are also feeding back to the traditional robot industry for continuous progress. The cost of hardware such as controllers and sensors has been significantly reduced and applied to traditional robots. Artificial intelligence model technologies such as large language models and image diffusion models have also begun to appear on domestic industrial robots. "With continuous accumulation, iteration and optimization, we are confident that we will accelerate and surpass the global humanoid robot industry," said Jiao Jichao.
(Outlook, 2024, No. 34)
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