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Text/Guan Junran

Editor/Qi Fei

On August 13, local time, 66 Japanese athletes who won medals at the Paris Olympics visited the Japanese Prime Minister's residence in Tokyo. During the visit, Japanese judo athlete Saito Tatsu was rejected when he asked Prime Minister Fumio Kishida for an autograph, and this scene spread within the Liberal Democratic Party.

On August 13, 66 Japanese athletes who won medals at the Paris Olympics visited the Japanese Prime Minister's Office.

A Japanese media outlet joked at the time, "Japanese Major League Baseball players often say that they don't write the name of the team when signing because they don't know when they will leave the team. Perhaps Kishida knows that he will no longer be prime minister soon, so he can't sign 'Prime Minister Kishida Fumio'."

The next day, this joke became a reality. On the morning of August 14, Kishida held a press conference and announced that he would not participate in the LDP presidential election in September. He explained that in this presidential election, it was necessary to show the public that the LDP would change, and he made the "important decision" not to run again with a strong desire to "push forward reforms."

On August 14, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida held a press conference and announced that he would not participate in the LDP presidential election in September.

The Prime Minister of Japan is the leader of the ruling party. Giving up the LDP presidential election means that Kishida will no longer serve as Prime Minister after the new LDP president is elected. Kishida came to power in October 2021 and was in power for less than three years before stepping down.

It has been a brutal summer for 67-year-old Kishida. Affected by the scandal of the World Peace and Unification Family Federation (hereinafter referred to as the "Unification Church") and the LDP "black money" scandal, the support rate of Kishida's cabinet and the LDP has continued to be low. Recently, the voices calling for Kishida to step down have become increasingly strong.

"I think Kishida knows that his chances of winning the presidential election are slim. He is worried that if he loses the election as the incumbent president, his influence will decline. Even if he wins, the LDP will find it difficult to maintain control in the upcoming House of Representatives election." Former Japanese House of Representatives member Masaru Koike told Phoenix Weekly that Kishida's announcement of withdrawing from the election on the grounds of taking responsibility for the scandal is actually a good choice. "If he can maintain his influence within the party, he may hold an important position in the party like LDP Vice President Taro Aso."

Over the past three years, Kishida's cabinet has been plagued by scandals.

According to people close to Kishida, Kishida finally decided not to run in the LDP presidential election until the morning of August 14. His sudden withdrawal surprised Nagatacho (the official residence of the Japanese prime minister) and even Japanese society.

"Kishida has been very active recently (preparing for re-election), which makes people think that he has a high chance of running for election. Now (withdrawing) is unexpected." Japanese senior political commentator Tetsuo Suzuki commented, "The fundamental reason for withdrawing is the low approval rating of the cabinet, and the historic plunge in the stock market caused by the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike in early August, which has aroused the anger of investors."

When talking about the reason for withdrawing from the election, Kishida told people around him that someone must be held accountable for the LDP's "black money" scandal.

In December 2023, in response to a report that five factions of the Liberal Democratic Party had failed to record the income of their "political funding parties" in the political funding income and expenditure reports as required, the Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office's Special Investigation Department launched an investigation into the factions involved on suspicion of violating the Political Funds Control Act.

It is reported that these factions issued sales targets to their subordinate members of Congress, requiring them to sell tickets for political fundraising banquets. If the sales targets were exceeded, the excess funds would be returned to the members of Congress in the form of kickbacks, thus becoming unregulated secret funds.

In the end, 85 members of the Liberal Democratic Party were involved in the "black money" scandal. Influenced by it, Kishida announced the dissolution of the Kishida faction, of which he had been the chairman for many years. The largest faction in the Liberal Democratic Party, the Abe faction, and the fifth largest faction, the Nikai faction, also decided to dissolve on the same day.

In May 2023, Fumio Kishida's eldest son and Prime Minister's secretary Shotaro Kishida was exposed for having engaged in inappropriate behavior such as taking photos with relatives in the Prime Minister's Office.

Over the past three years, the Kishida administration and the Liberal Democratic Party have never been free from scandals.

After taking office in October 2021, Kishida appointed his 32-year-old eldest son, Shotaro Kishida, as the prime minister's secretary. However, according to Japanese media reports, Shotaro abused his power to hold a party at the prime minister's residence, posed with relatives and friends on the podium of the prime minister's press conference, and used the official car for private shopping while accompanying the prime minister on a visit. In the end, Shotaro was fired by his father.

In July 2022, the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Kyoto opened the Pandora's box of Japanese politics. The close relationship between the Liberal Democratic Party and the "Unification Church" was constantly exposed, shocking the whole country. Although Kishida immediately announced a thorough investigation of the relationship between party members and the church and issued new governance guidelines, he still could not reverse the negative comments from the public.

In November 2023, the LDP was exposed to the "black money" scandal, which further shocked the public. Since then, the main factions within the party have been dissolved one after another, and now only the Aso faction remains among the six major factions. In early April this year, the LDP announced that 39 members of the Abe faction and the Nikai faction would be subject to party discipline. This is also the first large-scale punishment of internal members by the party since 2005.

On December 19, 2023, the Special Investigation Department conducted a house search of the offices of the "Abe faction" and "Nikai faction" in Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo.

However, this move still failed to restore the public's confidence. In the three by-elections in the House of Representatives at the end of April, the three seats originally belonging to the Liberal Democratic Party were won by the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party. In late June, the Constitutional Democratic Party submitted a motion of no confidence in the Kishida Cabinet to the House of Representatives on the grounds that the Liberal Democratic Party had not handled the "black money" scandal well. The motion of no confidence was eventually rejected. In July, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces were hit by a series of scandals such as improper handling of confidential information, illegal acceptance of subsidies, and power bullying. 218 people were punished, and Kishida publicly apologized for this.

All of the above has caused the popularity of the Kishida Cabinet to hit rock bottom. According to the latest poll released by the Japan Broadcasting Corporation (NHK), as of August 5, the support rate of the Kishida Cabinet was 25%, which has been below 30% for 10 consecutive months. In June, the support rate of the Kishida Cabinet fell to 19%, the lowest point since 2000. Another poll released by the Japan News Network in July also showed that 70% of Japanese people hope that Kishida can be replaced in the LDP presidential election in September, and only 17% want him to stay in office.

Yoichi Serikawa, a guest editorial member of the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, believes that the reasons for the failure of Kishida's administration can be traced back to a year ago. "If the House of Representatives had been dissolved in an extraordinary session of the Diet or in October in May 2022 (when the cabinet's approval rating was high) when the cabinet had a high approval rating, the current situation might not have happened."

"It's too late to take responsibility now," said a Liberal Democratic Party member. "Prime Minister Kishida's poor governance and lack of party governance have led to fierce criticism of the cabinet and the Liberal Democratic Party. Ultimately, it's because their hearts are broken."

Until the end, Kishida was still seeking re-election

Despite the constant scandals, Kishida was still seeking re-election until the last moment.

On May 3rd this year, which coincided with Japan's Constitution Day, Kishida delivered a video speech at a small-scale meeting advocating constitutional amendment, emphasizing the need to accelerate constitutional amendment. The outside world believes that Kishida's urgent push for constitutional amendment is to win over conservatives and pave the way for his re-election.

Kishida also tried several times to seek support from Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso, a key figure in the party. On August 2, Kishida met with Aso at the LDP headquarters. Prior to this, Kishida and Aso had held talks on June 18, June 25, and July 25. According to Japanese media reports, Kishida repeatedly asked Aso to support his candidacy, but Aso never responded positively, so Kishida had to give up.

Kishida has tried many times to seek the support of Taro Aso, a key figure in the presidential election.

June 29th marked Kishida's 1,000th day in office. He gave a speech that day saying, "I face many challenges both domestically and internationally... I continue to work hard to meet these challenges with a sense of tension every day." But by then, there was already a wave of "anti-Kishida" within the LDP, that is, people wanted Kishida to leave the presidency.

Another key figure in the LDP, former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, took the lead in forcing Kishida to resign. On June 26, Suga admitted in an interview with Japan's Bungeishunju: "Prime Minister Kishida should take responsibility." Suga believes that in the presidential election to be held in the fall of this year, innovation is of great significance to revitalizing the LDP. This statement is considered to be forcing Kishida to resign.

Before the LDP presidential election in September 2021, then-Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga had low approval ratings for his cabinet and low popularity within the LDP due to his poor handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Kishida took the opportunity to express his candidacy early, which ultimately stopped Suga from running for re-election.

Now, the script seems to have reversed. It is reported that Kishida had considered meeting with Suga Yoshihide, but people close to Suga revealed that "the two of them simply could not get along." Some people said that Suga Yoshihide never forgot Kishida's criticism of the government during his tenure.

Another key figure in the Liberal Democratic Party, former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga took the lead in forcing Fumio Kishida to resign.

Many party leaders and young lawmakers have similar ideas. Aso faction lawmaker Saito Hiroaki once said, "Someone must take responsibility for the current situation." Another member of the House of Representatives, Higashikuni Kan, declared, "The LDP has enough talent, and Prime Minister Kishida should open a new door for the LDP."

As his term in office draws to a close, Kishida is still facing various crises. On August 8, a 7.1-magnitude earthquake struck the sea near Miyazaki Prefecture, Japan, raising concerns about a possible huge earthquake in the Nankai Trough. Kishida canceled his plan to visit Central Asia at the last minute.

In the eyes of the outside world, the reason why the press conference was held on August 14 instead of after the Obon Festival (August 13-16) is because the LDP presidential election management committee will decide the election schedule on August 20. "Once some influential candidates come forward and announce their candidacy for the presidency, Kishida will only become more passive."

His final decision was to preemptively announce that he would not run for the presidency before being removed from office. A senior Japanese lawmaker speculated that "like former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Kishida may become prime minister again. To do this, he needs to show that even if he does not run for the presidency, he will do everything he can to seize the opportunity."

However, Koike Masaaki believes that it is unlikely that Kishida will run for prime minister again. "Unlike Abe who stepped down due to health reasons, Kishida announced his withdrawal from the election due to low support rates, and there were also voices against him within the LDP," Koike Masaaki said. "Kishida clearly knows that it is difficult for him to return to the position of prime minister. His goal should be to maintain a certain level of power and influence within the party like Taro Aso and Yoshihide Suga."

Ending the “Abe Era”: Taking Stock of Kishida’s Political Legacy

Through interviews, Hoshihiro, a special commentator for Japan's TBS TV, found that Kishida once complained to people around him that "during the three years in office, he had been 'wiping the ass' of the Abe administration." In Kishida's view, whether it was the "Unification Church" scandal or the LDP "black money" scandal, as well as the historic depreciation of the yen caused by Abe's economics, "they were not separated from the governance of the Abe era."

Due to factors such as the weak yen and tense international situation, Japan's people's wage growth has failed to keep up with price increases.

"From the perspective of the Liberal Democratic Party, the Kishida administration that began in 2021 can be positioned as the end of the 'Abe era'," said Yoichi Serikawa. "If the Suga Yoshihide administration in 2020 was just a continuation, Kishida revised the 'Abe era' and developed it at the same time."

"I am proud to have achieved great results with everyone's cooperation." At the press conference on August 14, Kishida did not forget to promote his economic achievements. In order to get rid of the shadow of his predecessor Abe, Kishida proposed the "new capitalism" policy in September 2021, aiming to promote the "virtuous cycle of growth and distribution", advocating strengthening "investment in people", expanding fiscal spending to carry out economic and social reforms, building an inclusive society, and encouraging local economies.

Over the past three years, the Kishida government has encouraged companies to raise wages while implementing electricity and gas subsidies and proposing a fixed tax reduction policy to reduce the burden on households. According to statistics from the Japan Trade Union Confederation (Rengo), before Kishida took office in 2021, the average wage growth rate in Japan was 1.78%, and by 2024 it would rise to 5.1%, the highest level in 33 years.

Kishida is eager to get the whole nation to actively invest in the stock market, so that companies have sufficient funds to invest in equipment and people, improve production efficiency, and promote corporate growth. In his view, corporate growth will also bring rich returns to employees, and as employee wages increase, personal consumption will also be promoted. However, due to factors such as the weakness of the yen and the increasingly tense international situation, wage increases have never kept up with price increases, which has left the public with little perception of economic improvement.

Kishida announced in July that experts will make a decision to declare the end of deflation and the Japanese government will avoid setting a timetable for the decision. Kishida appointed Kazuo Ueda as the central bank governor in 2023. Ueda is more stable than his predecessor Haruhiko Kuroda. However, the excessive depreciation of the yen and rising prices brought about by monetary policy aimed at overcoming deflation have weakened the effectiveness of related economic policies.

A poll conducted by Kyodo News in late July showed that 74.2% of respondents considered the government's fixed-rate tax cuts to be "ineffective" or "basically ineffective," dashing Kishida's expectations.

In terms of security policy, Kishida, who was born a dove, fulfilled Abe's unfulfilled wish to strengthen defense capabilities and deepen the Japan-U.S. alliance. He concluded at a press conference on August 14, "We have fundamentally strengthened our defense capabilities to cope with the increasingly complex situation in the international community."

Kishida announced an ambitious military expansion plan to increase the defense budget to more than 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2027, and it is expected that the total military expenditure will reach 318 billion US dollars in the next five years. After a long period of planning, the Kishida Cabinet passed the revised "National Security Strategy", "National Defense Strategy" and "Defense Force Preparation Plan" and other three security documents, which clearly included the construction of "counterattack capabilities" and other contents.

In the past, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces only served as a "shield" in the Japan-US alliance, and the US military was the "spear" that carried out the attack. In the future, the Self-Defense Forces can also serve as a "spear."

One of the reasons why Kishida made a major change in security policy was the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war. He once put forward the argument of "Ukraine today, East Asia tomorrow" at an international conference. The Japanese government also provided a large amount of military assistance to Ukraine, which is an unprecedented action in Japan's modern history.

In mid-June this year, the United States and Japan signed a ten-year bilateral security agreement with Ukraine, promising to provide long-term support to Ukraine. Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Institute of Russian, East European and Central Asian Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that for Japan, signing the Japan-Ukraine security agreement will enhance Japan's influence in global politics and is also an explanation to the United States and other Western allies. "In addition, Ukraine's reconstruction work in the future will become a 'big cake', and the agreement may help Japan gain economic benefits from it."

"As the public has said, Kishida has not figured out what he wants to do since he took office," said Masaaki Koike. In domestic affairs, he repeatedly and blindly issued subsidies in order to restore his own support rate; in foreign policy, he overly cared about the United States, increasing Japan's defense burden. "

However, Japan's military expansion plan did meet the expectations of the United States. In April this year, Kishida visited the United States as a state guest and delivered a speech at a joint meeting of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, saying that "Japan stands with the United States." He also joked, "Thank you, I will never get such wonderful applause in the Japanese Congress."

In April this year, Kishida visited the United States as a state guest.

When Kishida announced his withdrawal from the election, US President Biden expressed unstinting praise for this "old friend" across the Pacific. Biden wrote on the social platform X: "Kishida's courageous leadership will be remembered on both sides of the Pacific for decades to come. I will always be grateful and regard him as my friend."

There is a sense of sympathy here - Biden was originally going to seek re-election in the US general election in November this year, but ultimately announced his withdrawal from the race on July 21 due to pressure from within the party.

Another diplomatic highlight during Kishida's administration was the easing of tensions with South Korea. In May 2023, Kishida visited South Korea and held talks with South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol. This visit means that South Korea and Japan have restarted the "shuttle diplomacy" of mutual visits between leaders after a lapse of 12 years. Recently, the United States, Japan, and South Korea have achieved several major military results. The three countries signed a memorandum on the "security cooperation framework" to institutionalize the security cooperation among the three countries.

On May 7, 2023, Fumio Kishida visited South Korea and held talks with South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol.

Although Kishida has repeatedly expressed his hope to build a "constructive and stable relationship" with China in public, Koike Masaaki believes that this depends on his specific approach. "On the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations between China and Japan, Kishida handed over the commemorative activities to the Japan Business Federation. He also did not attend the relevant commemorative activities held in Tokyo."

The day after announcing his withdrawal from the election, Kishida offered "tamagushiryō" to the Yasukuni Shrine in the name of the LDP president. In response, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said, "Correctly dealing with and deeply reflecting on the history of aggression is an important prerequisite for Japan to establish and develop friendly and cooperative relations with its Asian neighbors after the war."

The battle for the prime ministership has officially begun

After announcing his withdrawal from the election, Kishida personally sounded the clarion call for the LDP presidential election. On the morning of August 15, he held a cabinet meeting at the Prime Minister's Office and said, "I think there are people among you who are considering running for the presidency, and I hope that you can have an open and honest debate without any scruples."

Inspired by this, many candidates are gearing up for the election. Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa and Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Takeru Saito have further hinted at their willingness to run. Yoko Kamikawa said, "I will make a decision and take action after careful consideration." Former LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba said, "If I can get 20 nominations, I will plan to run." Digital Minister Taro Kono said, "I hope that one day I can make use of my rich cabinet experience."

Recently, Digital Minister Taro Kono expressed his intention to run for the next president.

In addition to these people, LDP Secretary-General Motegi Toshimitsu, former Environment Minister Koizumi Shinjiro, Minister of Economic Security Sanae Takaichi, former Minister of Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi, and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi are all believed to be joining the election campaign.

According to a joint poll conducted by Japan's Sankei Shimbun and Fuji News Network from July 20 to 21, among the many popular candidates, the first place is Shigeru Ishiba (24.7%), the second is Shinjiro Koizumi (12.1%); the third is Sanae Takaichi (7.5%), and the fourth is Taro Kono (7.0%).

According to regulations, candidates for the presidency of the Liberal Democratic Party must be recommended by at least 20 members of the party, which makes cooperation between factions particularly important. "Have the factions of the Liberal Democratic Party really disbanded? In fact, the offices and staff of each faction still exist," said Ryosuke Nishida, a professor at Tokyo Institute of Technology.

"When there are many candidates, it is difficult for a single candidate to get more than half of the valid votes in the first round of voting, but when it comes to a two-person showdown, it all depends on the votes of the party's members of parliament." Koike Masaru explained to Phoenix Weekly, "Although most of the LDP's factions have been dissolved, they still retain their cohesion. If you want to win in the end, the key is to get the support of the Aso faction, Kishida group and Suga Yoshihide group."

The Aso faction, the only one that has not disbanded, has 56 members, retaining the power of unified voting as a faction. Currently, Toshimitsu Motegi and Taro Kono, who belongs to the Aso faction, are actively seeking Aso's support. Aso has not yet publicly stated who his favorite candidate is, and people around him believe that he will "patiently assess the situation until he finds the person with the greatest chance of winning."

As the Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party, Toshimitsu Motegi had previously maintained restraint and supported Kishida. Some lawmakers believe that with Kishida's withdrawal from the election, this moral constraint has been "removed." On the evening of August 14, Motegi expressed his intention to run for election while having dinner with Aso at a steak restaurant in Akasaka, Tokyo.

Shinjiro Koizumi, Shigeru Ishiba and Taro Kono formed the "Koizumi-Kawa Alliance", which gained the upper hand in the polls and was favored by Yoshihide Suga. The group centered on Yoshihide Suga gathered some non-partisans and Nikai faction members, becoming another core force in the party. Some commentators said that Yoshihide Suga and Aso had started a "fierce battle to be the kingmaker".

Shinjiro Koizumi, son of former Environment Minister and former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi

It is worth mentioning that many members of the Liberal Democratic Party are looking forward to a new atmosphere, so they are more optimistic about Koizumi Junichiro's son, Koizumi Shinjiro, and Kobayashi Takayuki. Kyodo News commented that Koizumi Shinjiro, who is very well-known, has not yet expressed his position, and may become the "eye of the storm" in this ever-changing election campaign.

The Kishida faction led by Kishida himself previously had 46 members. After the announcement of its dissolution, many of the members continued to cooperate. The Kishida faction proposed recommending Hayashi Yoshimasa and Kamikawa Yoko as Kishida's successors. Both of them currently play an important role in Kishida's administration and are expected to inherit Kishida's political legacy.

The Abe faction, which has decided to disband, is composed of nearly 90 members of parliament and is the largest faction in the Liberal Democratic Party. After losing the support of former Prime Minister Abe, Takaichi Sanae had to personally call conservative members of parliament and ask them to join her camp.

Ryosuke Nishida analyzed, "Sanae Takaichi, who is close to Abe, is very popular among the conservatives in the party. Shigeru Ishiba, who has always been on the edge of the LDP, has also become more popular in the party. Toshimitsu Motegi has appeared in the media many times recently and intends to gather non-partisan people in the party, which is likely to be instructed by the Abe faction."

The upcoming US election also seems to be affecting the LDP presidential election. Yoichi Shimada, a professor of international politics at Fukui Prefectural University in Japan, analyzed: "Republican presidential candidate Trump is expected to trust Sanae Takaichi, who has a close relationship with Abe, but it is still questionable whether he will trust Shigeru Ishiba, who has a grudge against Abe. Democratic presidential candidate Harris will be more in line with Shinjiro Koizumi, Taro Kono and others on issues such as LGBT and the environment."

More analysis believes that no matter who takes over the presidency, the Liberal Democratic Party will not undergo fundamental changes.

Xing Hao of TBS TV commented that although each candidate's name is labeled as "post-Kishida era", in fact, no matter who comes to power, they will most likely agree to systems such as "retaining non-transparent political activity funds". A Liberal Democratic Party member also mentioned that "as long as the Liberal Democratic Party can win the House of Representatives election next year, it doesn't matter who becomes president. If the Liberal Democratic Party (as the ruling party) stays, it can return to the old system."