2024-08-18
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"While taking maintaining price stability and promoting a moderate price recovery as important considerations, we should maintain policy stability and not expand or contract too much," said Pan Gongsheng, Secretary of the Party Committee and Governor of the People's Bank of China, in a recent interview with the media.
This statement has attracted attention. What policy signal does it send?
Sanlihe noted that Huang Yiping, Dean of the National School of Development at Peking University and member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China, recently pointed out at the Chang'an Forum that the pursuit of moderate inflation should be given the same importance as the pursuit of medium-speed growth. The economy is now "easy to cool but difficult to heat up", and if it really falls into the "low inflation trap", the consequences will be serious. Therefore, it is recommended to make CPI growth of 2% to 3% a rigid policy target.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in the first seven months, the national consumer price index rose by only 0.2% year-on-year. The expected target set in the 2024 government work report is a consumer price increase of about 3%.
Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of China UnionPay, said in an interview with Sanlihe that since the beginning of this year, the national consumer price index has been relatively sluggish, reflecting insufficient effective economic demand and asynchronous recovery of total supply and demand.