Zelensky wants to exchange prisoners, but some people want to replace Zelensky
2024-08-18
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It seems that Zelensky, who wants to exchange prisoners, must also face the situation where someone wants to replace him.
Thinking from this perspective, why is it so difficult for peace between Russia and Ukraine to come about?
Well, even if it’s difficult, shouldn’t we just try our best?
Text | Haishangke
A Xinhua News Agency article stated that Ukraine has confirmed that it is currently pushing for a prisoner exchange with Russia. Specifically, it is to exchange prisoners captured by the Ukrainian army in the Kursk region of Russia for Ukrainian prisoners.
According to the relevant human rights commissioner of the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) of Ukraine, the Russian liaison personnel also took the initiative to request a prisoner exchange.
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It has to be said that Ukraine's attack on Russia's mainland was a rather unexpected move, a bit of a surprise attack. At present, even the United States has repeatedly leaked information to the outside world through White House spokespersons, saying that neither the United States nor NATO knew about it in advance.
Counting the dates, it has been more than ten days since the Ukrainian troops entered Russia's Kursk Oblast. Not only did Russia not "encircle" the Ukrainian troops, but other regions such as Belgorod Oblast have also entered a state of emergency.
Dmitry Lubinets, Commissioner for Human Rights of the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) of Ukraine Photo: Information
Under such circumstances, Dmitry Lubinets, the Human Rights Commissioner of the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) of Ukraine, announced that he had held talks with Tatyana Moskalikova, the Russian President's Plenipotentiary for Human Rights, on the exchange of prisoners of war in the Kursk region.
According to Lubinets, the dialogue was initiated by the Russian side, and the Russian side was willing to exchange prisoners.
Hai Shu wants to say that from Lubinets' words, at least we can draw this conclusion -
The Ukrainian army's unexpected attack did capture prisoners in Russia.
After Ukraine claimed to have occupied Sudja and other places under the jurisdiction of Kursk, Russia, especially after Ukraine claimed to have occupied 83 Russian settlements on August 16 local time, even though the Russian army claimed to have recaptured two settlements, it still had to face a consideration: how to deal with the Ukrainian army in Russia.
No matter which side mentioned it first, at least at the moment, the two sides may exchange prisoners, which is not a bad thing.
You know, one day before Lubinets leaked that Russia and Ukraine might exchange prisoners, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova said at the regular press conference that day that because of the sudden attack by the Ukrainian army, the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine would be suspended for a long time.
If the pause button just pressed is restarted because of the possibility of prisoner exchange, of course it is good. From this point of view alone, prisoner exchange is also of positive significance.
Zelensky picture: information
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As for the entire Russian-Ukrainian conflict, of course Russia still has the upper hand. On the Donbas front in eastern Ukraine, Russian troops continue to advance in Pokrovsk and Kupyansk, as well as Tokmak, Toretsk, Kremlin, and New York Village. It is reported that Ukraine currently has control over about 30% of the Donbas administrative region.
CCTV News reported that the Russian and Ukrainian armies were fighting fiercely in Kursk, Russia. There were also reports that the Ukrainian army's advance in Russia was greatly slowed down because the main Russian forces were fighting hard in the Kursk direction.
Even though Ukraine claims that it has established a so-called "Military and Political Committee" in the Kursk region and is trying its best to help restore the lives of local residents, this is still Ukraine occupying Russian territory.
Russia and Ukraine have occupied each other's territory. What will happen next? As Zelensky said, after getting more "exchange funds", that is, Russian territory, should they negotiate with Russia?
What will Russia do?
Hai Shu noticed that some so-called commentators in the West are clamoring that since Russia and North Korea have formed an alliance, will the North Korean army go to the place where Russia and Ukraine are fighting to reinforce the Russian army?
Russia releases destroyed Ukrainian armored vehicles
A Russian military convoy was hit by a HIMARS rocket launcher
It must be said here that, after all, President Putin personally announced that the current war in Kursk, Russia, is a "counter-terrorism operation" for the Russian army. Since it is a "counter-terrorism operation", it is impossible to activate the alliance.
Of course, some people will say that if it is an "anti-terrorism operation", will Russia activate relevant agreements with the Collective Security Treaty Organization or the major Eastern powers and ask friends to send troops to join it in "fighting terrorism"?
Here we have to say that this also depends on how the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Eastern powers characterize the Ukrainian army's entry into Russian territory to fight.
Anyway, China's position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict is consistent. It has its own historical context and current contradictions. "This conflict, which took place in the third decade of the new century, carries the accumulated contradictions of the Cold War in the old century and reflects the profound complexity of the great changes in the past century." This is what Zhang Jun said publicly at the United Nations when he was China's representative to the United Nations. The implications are worth savoring again and again.
Those who do not mind the big deal and want to add fuel to the fire, and even want to use various rhetoric to get firepower support from the Russian side and continue to expand the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, have ulterior motives!
Recently, there has been new progress in the Nord Stream 2 explosion case. Germany has issued an arrest warrant for the Ukrainian suspect. It is not difficult to see that in some countries not far from Russia and Ukraine, after being forced to get involved in the dispute, some people still keep a clear mind and clarify the facts of some things.
In Hai Shu's opinion, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine cannot be resolved overnight. But from Dmitry Lubinets's words, we can naturally feel that there is an internal channel for communication between Russia and Ukraine. So, talking is better than fighting. The prisoner exchange talk is also a kind of talk. If more consensus is reached through the prisoner exchange talk, a larger-scale peace talk may be possible.
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Is it possible that the Russia-Ukraine peace talks will be restarted in the near future?
Is it possible for Russia-Ukraine peace talks to succeed?
In fact, anyone who has seen what Zelensky said can understand that Ukraine wants to negotiate. It claims to occupy Russian territory not to take it permanently, but to increase bargaining chips in negotiations. Putin's side also said so, thinking that Zelensky wants to do this.
It is worth noting that if Ukraine really starts to restart the negotiations, will there be external forces that are unwilling to negotiate and re-enter the market to interfere? You must know that in the spring of 2022, when Russia and Ukraine initially achieved results in the talks, it was the then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson who personally talked to Zelensky and asked Ukraine to fight to the end, which led to the failure of the negotiations.
Arsen Avakov, former Ukrainian Interior Minister
Now, another media outlet has revealed that the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service has learned that the United States is considering preparing former Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov to replace Zelensky when the time is right.
Russia said Avakov is a "neo-Nazi" currently on the list of terrorists and extremists. It seems that Avakov is more disliked by the Putin government than Zelensky.
It seems that Zelensky, who wants to exchange prisoners, must also face the situation where someone wants to replace him.
Thinking from this perspective, why is it so difficult for peace between Russia and Ukraine to come about?
Well, even if it’s difficult, shouldn’t we just try our best?
